Iog Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 31/5/2022 12:14

Only 50 grand(!), no need to tell the wife then, or she might want to swap with those IOG shares ;)

[alxo82] 31/5/2022 12:04

Majors will not buy any assets in the NS, in any case they will sell everything they can and use that money to develop less problematic assets in Africa, Asia or America. NS is complex and only minor discoveries are left. This Energy Profits tax is another reason to leave the UK jurisdiction.

[fardels bear] 31/5/2022 08:52

Well there's always been political uncertainty in Iraq and then Isis attacked Kurdistan oilfields but it's been stable since then and I put in just fifty grand which should return me ten grand in div and of course one day it will be bought out. Shaikan is a huge oilfield and they're only producing the Jurassic. Still the Cretaceous and Triassic to go at.

[johnkidd1] 31/5/2022 08:25

Where does that figure come from. Also look at News. Saturn banks production suspended. Chapters of delays not great for share price.

[bountyhunter] 30/5/2022 17:30

20% yield! There must be a reason why the share price is not higher.

[fardels bear] 30/5/2022 17:10

Well I bought back into GKP rather than this shower of disaster merchants. GKP pays over 20% dividend and has the biggest onshore oilfield discovered in decades.

[dunderheed] 30/5/2022 17:06

Another good day for IOG "management".
Only a week after they vaguely mentioned a week in their last brilliantly written RNS.
Headless chicken(s) springs to mind?

[anley] 30/5/2022 15:33

DELT is a perfect company to be acquired either by Shell or Capricorn.

What Deltic could do is sell the 2X JV to Shell and the 5X JV to Capricorn and then pay a special dividend and use sufficient of the proceeds to carry on with its Business Plan.

With all the tax losses used up = no tax bill but I wont go on................

[bountyhunter] 30/5/2022 08:43

Added DELT to the prices of gas related companies at the top.

[bountyhunter] 29/5/2022 20:04

That's about all you can do with this company at the moment, maybe one day!

[fardels bear] 29/5/2022 19:17

In your dreams.. ?

[bountyhunter] 29/5/2022 19:13

55p? I'd take that :)

[dunderheed] 29/5/2022 15:28

Doubt they are BH - supposedly have to pay up to around 55p per share for LOG share?
IMHO and normal pub talk applies.

[bountyhunter] 29/5/2022 15:11

Agreed, so Serica would be best to move sooner rather than later if they are interested.

[alxo82] 28/5/2022 12:55

I'm also thinking that the SQZ-IOG combination would be a good fit for both companies, the price may be the problem. Today, 45p could be a fair price, but it could get to 80p after Southwark's first gas and further exploration in the Goddard and other fields.

[hpcg] 28/5/2022 09:48

I think a non-Conservative government will keep the supplemental tax too. To an extent it depends on energy prices and what happens to investment. If the tax deters the latter than it will be reduced or go.

[fardels bear] 28/5/2022 06:38

In which case the sunset may be prolonged indefinitely.

[bountyhunter] 27/5/2022 23:46

Agreed FB. SQZ management need to get their thinking hats on - I'm confident they will do that and sort out additional investment rather than giving more than they have to to "Richy".

Re the sunset clause in 2025 I see no reason why that shouldn't be the end of this punitive tax unless Boris needs another diversion at that time, but in truth neither he or "Richy" is likely to last that long!

[hpcg] 27/5/2022 11:33

bountyhunter - I would expect the tax to stay around beyond the sunset clause so I think it should be worked into long term returns. The company, per the annual report, is using 45p/therm as its price assumption and what anyone chooses for their modelling will make a big difference. What the tax does is narrow the delta between the low and high end curves with the expansion rate at the top end being

1.25 * a + b * 0.75 * price
rather than
a + b * 1 * price

where a is the operational cost and b is production once costs are covered. This curve applies until tax losses are covered after which it changes to:

1.25 * a + b * 0.35 * price
rather than
a + b * 0.6 * price

(naively ignoring investment spending, just trying to illustrate how the relative steepness of the price / return curves are different between the two tax regimes.

[hpcg] 27/5/2022 11:18

scbscd - that is a naive calculation. The EV is largely made up of accumulated losses so the current share price assumes it will never make any profits. Whilst the new levy does apply to marginal profits even for new fields the bulk of taxes, i.e. 40% don't. Additional tax can never be a positive but the change in gas prices more than makes up for it. And as has been noted by others IOGs programme of works really negates a lot of the impact.

It moves the UK regime a little bit closer to the Norwegian model where the state accepts a lot of exploration and development risk in return for a bigger cut of profits.

[fardels bear] 27/5/2022 08:25

I'd say it would be an excellent buy for SQZ. Get rid of the accident prone management too at one fell stroke.

[farrugia] 27/5/2022 08:17

could this new tax make IOG more attractive to a predator - say Enquest or Serica Energy - they have matured fields so will be the most impacted. If they acquired a developing field like IOG they would have plenty where to spend to recoup the money spent?

[bountyhunter] 26/5/2022 17:58

The new tax relief of up to 91.25% on North Sea investment will be very useful to IOG, and so up to Dec 2025 when the new tax ends I doubt that IOG will have much tax to pay given they are investing heavily in North Sea development, altogether this could even be net positive for IOG which is why the price hasn't dropped back today.



(scroll down to the table towards the end to see the 91.25% tax relief on NS investment under the new scheme)

[scbscb] 26/5/2022 17:23

A new 25% tax should make this worth 25% less, because investors should value a company on the profits remaining over the company's life and that is after investment expenditure. So when oil and gas prices are low investors suffer all the losses and when profits are high investors get mugged by the government.
Also high taxes will mean marginal fields will become loss making much faster and that oil and gas will be left under the sea, while the UK imports more oil and gas.

[alxo82] 26/5/2022 15:08

Up to 91% of capex reduce this levy in total with the new announcement:
"An ‘allowanceR17; will be generated on investment expenditure (capital expenditure and some operating and leasing expenditure) at 80% which can immediately be used to reduce profits subject to the levy."