Iog Share Discussion Threads

[tidy 2] 26/5/2022 14:19

UK Government Outlines New 25% Tax on Oil-And-Gas Companies.consumers will pick up the tab.

[dilip40] 26/5/2022 10:46

thanks alxo

[alxo82] 26/5/2022 08:42

My projections are 134M revenue and 88M net income w/o Southwark and 169M & 130M respectively w/ Southwark online in October, given that current future prices materialise. My production cost is the one estimated in the bond prospect, I haven't seen another number around, I'd love if someone could share a more recent one.

[bountyhunter] 25/5/2022 16:25

There's pretty good odds of no problems reported for 3 months; given we are coming up to the holiday season we may not see an RNS until St. Ledger's Day ;)

[bbluesky] 25/5/2022 16:07

What odds are you giving?!

[dilip40] 25/5/2022 13:39

thanks hp

companys accident prone southwark rig leg break and delayed production start up delays for bltyth and elgood and now condensate pump. see if they can run 3 months without any problems

[hpcg] 25/5/2022 10:51

dilip - the UK has 3 days of gas storage and in the winter imports gas through the inter-connectors. Although continental gas storage is filling up the odds of a shortfall come the winter are near enough certain. Spot nat gas prices tell you nothing about gas prices over the year; it is not just a highly seasonal chart but also one that has huge volatility year to year based on temperature. Monthly futures are more stable until they get nearer to being the front month. Daily prices are unlikely to be below 200p/therm in the winter in my opinion.

[dilip40] 25/5/2022 10:26

HAS ANYONE ANY FIGURES AT WHAT REVENUE OR PROFITS IOG WILL MAKE OVER NEXT 12 MONTHS ON PRODUCTIONS FIGURES PRE SHUT DOWN AND WITH SOUTHWARK LATER IN YEAR THANKS

RE GAS PRICES DOWN FROM PEAK OF 450 TO 100 HOW ARE THE ENERGY SUPPLIERS PROJECTING BILLS TRIPLE PRE MARCH SURELY THEY ARE PAYING 100 P FOR CURRENT SUPPLIES

[hpcg] 24/5/2022 20:55

If windfall taxes are applied now it is not inconceivable UKCS taxes go up in general and over a longer period of time. Nor is it by any means certain of course. With much higher netbacks than anticipated the losses will be worked through reasonably quickly, which is all good and nothing bad, but the actual profit, which is what really really matters, might get clipped. I personally am not fussed but Centrica and SSE were both hit on a news story today. With markets in general under pressure this extra risk factor could keep buyers away, and it is the marginal buyers that set the price.

[alxo82] 24/5/2022 10:57

IOG has 200+ million in ring fence tax losses, I think taxation is not a problem for IOG in the coming 2-3 years. The day-ahead price is a huge problem, at least now it is at 134 p/th recovering from the annual minimum of 30 p/th a couple weeks ago.

[officerdigby] 24/5/2022 10:50

No windfall tax will be on IOG! It has just invested every last penny to bring new fields on stream. Plus debt.all that risk, some of which is playing out now. Plus yoyo of NBP 2 weeks ago 30p.Windfall tax would not apply to IOG. If it did no new ventures in NS IMO

[hpcg] 24/5/2022 10:30

alxo82 - indeed, though I accept it adds a small amount to risk, though at the same time reduces risk. Markets are weak and there is strong talk of windfall taxes. The latter should be less of a concern to IOG with substantial losses to work through first. There is some risk in the out years though, which will need to be modelled, but ultimately this will represent itself in higher gas prices IMO, so swings and roundabouts. I can understand the buying reticence but personally I'm using these prices to add.

[alxo82] 24/5/2022 10:06

My model gives a value that is closer to 50p than 20p. The Finncap price of 59p makes sense. 1 week of lost production and 1 week of reduced production cannot cut the company's value by more than 10%

[bountyhunter] 24/5/2022 09:16

So Boris has caved in to Rishi over a windfall tax? ..quite pathetic after all that has been said; shouldn't affect IOG much though, they have bigger fish to fry.

[hpcg] 23/5/2022 17:46

Malcy has nothing of value to add to the conversation. If you aren't modelling revenues, debt pay-off and returns after taxes yourself then what are you doing invested in this share? How can you even tell if an analyst's model makes sense?

[fardels bear] 23/5/2022 17:07

Still didn't buy any

[bountyhunter] 23/5/2022 16:49

I think I'll call him Malcy Python after that comment!

[anley] 23/5/2022 16:40

Part of Malcy's comment today...............

"The current cut back in production is ironically being done at a time when NBP gas prices are relatively low and whilst the short term stays that way right now, should mean that IOG will be increasing production when increased domestic demand returns later in the year.

After all this is part of a portfolio of long-term assets, so short term outages like this shouldn’t alter long term value calculations."

I see he has Gas at 138p and IOG have been selling at 100p average.........

[hpcg] 23/5/2022 16:26

Lots of decent information with which to model revenues though.

[montyhedge] 23/5/2022 15:45

Like I said shareprices talk and this was shouting something wrong.

[bountyhunter] 23/5/2022 11:53

The problem is one of transparency as it seems unlikely that this problem has only just come to light IMHO.

[alxo82] 23/5/2022 11:42

Problem is at the Bacton terminal; the gas condensate flow is higher than expected so they are having troubles in processing it. I don't see why management are the ones to blame here but the technical team who didn't design the terminal or the platforms for such high levels of condensate. Also, the reservoirs models did not predict this high volume, another one on the technical team. The condensate can be sold, so it is not a bad thing that it comes at high rates, BUT if you are not prepared for it, bad things happen. The problem is onshore, so time and cost to resolve is much lower than at the platforms. IOG is navigating through s... all the time, not a single month without bad news.
Two weeks ago, one of the directors sold shares at 27.5p to exercise options at 1p, the RNS says that the issue appeared after he did that operation (but he was aware of the low day-ahead prices). Also, none of the directors is willing to buy shares "at a discount", contrary to what Andrew Austin did at Kistos when the market overreacted to a badly communicated directors' incentive plan, that's a yellow flag IMO.
Southwark shall be ready early Q4 for the winter season, increasing production from current long-term estimate of 30mmscf/d to above 50mmscf/d. That and a closure of the NBP-TTF gap are the only good things that could move the price back to the 40p.
Obviously, they will not have enough cash to call the bond this September, or renegotiate it to lower the rate of 9.5%+EURIBOR 3 month.
I'm still holding, but not buying anymore expecting this to be temporary setbacks, even an offer may be received at this prices. I wouldn't diminish that option.