Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[david brent] 30/5/2014 09:37

Delighted i got in at 49p two days ago....

[wisteria2] 30/5/2014 09:28

Taken the plunge this am. After watching the story for some time, and the share price recover, so would expect it to tank now!!! GLA

[gadolinium] 30/5/2014 09:27

Joe,
Given the usual effect of water news on the share price I don't think I want to hear anything about water just now when things are going so well.

Water water everywhere and not a drop to drink.
Water water everywhere and all my shares did shrink.

Apols to Coleridge

[superg1] 30/5/2014 09:25

Joe

No one In the circles I have comms with is talking about water at all. There was a rumour a few weeks back that the hearing may be in July.

Even if it was to be on 3rd June I think I read somewhere it can be many weeks before the final decision is made.

I am sure the 3rd June date was no more than a populate the box provisional date. There is no way imo they could at the drop of a hat arrange legal terms court availability and so on.

IOF wouldn't have had that ready and set to go, as the decision was unknown.

In fact many of the major connections want water chat out of the way, and would welcome it being later in the year, so we can concentrate on the hear and now re iodine progress.

I talk little about it right now as the logic and general concensus is that the water hearing and decision is many weeks/a few months off.

[beercapafn] 30/5/2014 09:12

Simply put, IOF was mispriced.

aggree.

[che7win] 30/5/2014 09:00

I wouldn't be surprised if we see another 50% rise from here. I mentioned a breakout a few days ago.

That chart is curving up nicely, these prices are bargain prices, that's why shares are being gobbled up.

Simply put, IOF was mispriced.

The market is realising the potential next year, everything is starting to come together, the iodine price rising from here will be the final part of the jigsaw.

All IMHO.

[cyberbub] 30/5/2014 08:45

I have just closed a little T-trade and picked up 5000 shares for the equivalent of 150 quid...I hasten to add that my T-trades don't always end as successfully :-oGLA onwards and upwards hopefully...NAI

[joestalin] 30/5/2014 07:57

I think the water issue may affect sentiment, rather than sensible comment (not always the same thing).

But, as I say, it should be a good fortnight.

[engelo] 30/5/2014 07:49

Joe: don't think water can sensibly be commented on even if the meeting happens.

Everyone's watching iodine atm imo.

Expect May numbers carefully timed in the lead up to the AGM.

Also hoping for general update in the lead up period (nothing new can be announced at the AGM itself as restricted audience) which could include eg:

Plans to increase brine volumes

Progress with minis

Also perhaps uPdate on BoD to reflect stability/CEo appt.

[joestalin] 30/5/2014 07:29

I'm not expecting an RNS on Monday, O.

I think an RNS about the water hearing could appear on Wednesday - should the hearing go ahead on Tuesday. The monthly report could come on Friday the 6th - the last one was 6th May. Then, the AGM on the 10th also may result in a positively worded RNS.

However they appear, I think it should be a good fortnight.

[engelo] 30/5/2014 07:29

edited: Festario last post should have been addressed to you. Now corrected.

Slightly longer answer. My own position: think TA has its uses which I'm gradually learning from Titus and elsewhere. I never buy or sell without looking at the chart closely so use it myself at lest subconsciously. Even if you think it's rubbish there are many who are positive so need to understand their behaviour imo.

[engelo] 30/5/2014 07:20

Edit Festario (not Freshvoice): in short respected poster sceptical about TA. Back on keyboard thank God.

[orslega] 30/5/2014 07:13

so production numbers for May - RNS Monday perhaps? By all accounts it is likely to see a marked improvement over April, in which case Mr Market will like : )

Quite enjoying the last couple of days, see what today brings...expecting to see some more positioning pre-update.

[festario] 30/5/2014 00:00

Engelo, not sure if you think I am 'dross' a respected poster or somewhere in between. But I too have said many times that it would have been very lucrative to sell all my shares at 10am every day, and buy them back at 4.29pm. But now we seem to have the reverse of that, long may it continue.

[freshvoicem] 29/5/2014 23:58

Could be someone has been counting number of drums arriving at IOF Chemical this month.

;-))

[freshvoicem] 29/5/2014 23:55

Engelo
95k went through after 17.00 at near high of day 56p may explain optimism, also uncrossed close was higher as well.

[engelo] 29/5/2014 23:09

crosseyed: (21401) many thanks for sharing your model for 2014 production which is much more sophisticated (and involves more work) tban my own. Will have a good look at it as I tend to err on the optimistic side. (However that said I think that Lance is playing the old underpromise game with his 400 Mt. No point from the PR standpoint in him doing otherwise, so influenced by this.)

[woodpeckers] 29/5/2014 22:01

Great to see the rise this last couple of days, well done all those who kept the faith, hopefully this is just the beginning. The fantastic research by many, particularly SG, really suggests that everything is falling in to place for this company. Exciting times!
Many thanks to all the great contributors, I think it really has helped many of us hang on through the rough days.

[crosseyed] 29/5/2014 22:00

engelo,

Going back to your "fag packet" calcs in post 21374 (thanks for those), I assume that your increased optimism is based on the end of fracking restrictions on the supply of brine starting in July.

I'm not disputing your thoughts though they do seem on the high side in some respects.

IO1 and IO2 @ 31 mTpm.
Presumably that is from May since the total for all plants in April was 21.8mT. I'm assuming...
IO1:12,500bpd@100ppm and IO2:20,000bpd@225ppm, both over 25 days to allow for maintenance, giving 20.6mTpm.
(I have allowed for increased brine supply to IO2 of 25,000bpd from 2015 giving a total of 24.6mTpm.)

IO3 @ 5 Mt Q2, Q3, 20 Q4 [My model assumptions follow]
Q2 and Q3:12,500bpd@150ppm for 25 days/mth=21.1mT each qtr;
Q4:15,000bpd @150ppm for 25 days/mth=24mT.

I04 5 Mt Q2, Q3, 20 Q4
Q2:12,500@180ppm at 11-12days/mth=11.9mT;
Q3:12,500bpd@180 for 20 days/mth=19.2mT;
Q4:15,000bpd@180ppm for 20days/mth=23.1mT.

I05 5 Q3, 20 Q4
Q2:no production;
Q3:12,500bpd@150ppm for 20 days/mth=16.2mT;
Q4:15,000 bpd@150ppm for 20days/mth=19.2mT.

IO6 5 Q3, 20 Q4
Q2(June):12,500@150ppm for 13 days=3.5mT;
Q3:12,500bpd@150ppm for 20 days/mth=16.2mT;
Q4:15,000bpd@150ppm for 20days/mth=19.2mT.

Quarterly totals from my assumptions are:
Q1:47mT, Q2:88.2mT, Q3:133.3mT, Q4:147.7mT.

The figures are estimated to give about 400 mT for the year (actually 416.7mT). I use the days/mth to adjust for low brine periods (and also to reduce first-month production to allow for settling in) rather than the bpd metrics. However, I would not expect average production days to be more than 25/26 days per month to allow for planned maintenance and other glitches. If brine ceases to be restricted, then those numbers can easily be adjusted. I would be particularly interested in your thoughts on the bpd and ppm assumptions. I have assumed that they might be increased somewhat from 2015 as liaison with the operators improves.

c

[superg1] 29/5/2014 21:44

I note SQM lawyers were present. It seems SQM have been the complainants. As said before SQM and Cosayach are bitter enemies, they will throttle each whenever they can.

[orslega] 29/5/2014 21:33

sg1 - excellent research, very relevant (bigger picture/supply) as Iofina starts to ramp up production. Be very happy for Iofina to fill the supply gap in fullness of time.

From memory, Cosayach is privately owned so this potentially very damaging news will not be required to be released to the market. No doubt the situation is being closely monitored in Chile by competitors, namely SQM. Not looking great for Chilean iodine producers right now.

[bogg1e] 29/5/2014 20:45

SG1, thanks for the research. It will be interesting to see how this filters into the wider iodine market, hopefully it will mean that instead of the iodine price staying flat at $40 per kilo for the rest of the year, it may begin to rise earlier than expected. I feel sorry for the Cosayach workers who may lose jobs over this though. Also will iodine producers start to build inventory, rather than continuing to cash in, in anticipation of a price rise in iodine? How can one check iodine prices online? You mentioned ali baba once but is this indicative of the wholesale prices i assume iodine producers get for bulk orders?