Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[miss ann thrope] 25/4/2014 10:53

Splendid show!

[tomboyb] 25/4/2014 10:53

Well 21% up so far today - lets see how far this goes -

[scrutable] 25/4/2014 10:49

Nothing surprising about today's FY RNS except that it was for the first time in a year of bad IR/PR that the previously seen to be half empty glass is now brilliantly described for all to see as as sparkling and half full. A trusted, high performing hand now holds the pen again

It's the same company with a brilliant business model in a specialist field, profitability potential protected by patents(now more secure)in a stable market with upward trends (in demand and price level). Production has quadrupled, will redouble this year, and probably again in 2015. That's not without precedent but quite rare.

If we had discovered the investment opportunity today rather than two years ago it would look more bullish than it did then, when the price was also 20-30p. Yet today IO#1 the prototype plant and chemical process is fully tested, and substantially developed , with op efficiency improved and capacity four fold. Four further units have been financed and commissioned. They lie there ready to go, x20 times in capacity collectively, hungry for much more work load available for nearly free from all round Oklahoma.

Is this not a far better moment to invest? Less downside risk? Much more confidence in the potential? Competition weaker?

Furthermore it's like sailing with a following wind, or cycling downhill, once you take in the unwinding of short positions

Lucky the new investors. They don't have to pick themselves up to start again. The rest of us are sorrier and wiser but we have a second chance, and this time, with hindsight, less risk.

And yes Netley, I do still admire your felicity, without agreeing on more than a tiny % of what you have till now projected.

[qprjohn121] 25/4/2014 10:46

Re gadolinium: Does anyone know if the internal sales are made at a premium to production cost?

I dont believe there are hard and fast rules for the setting of internal transfer prices but two common practices exist. The 'better' method for the purposes of clarifying true division-level profitability is to use an estimate of open market price as the internal transfer price. However the more common practice in my experience (from other sectors) is the use of cost price rather than market price.

I realise that doesnt help us much in knowing how to interpret the $28 !

[gadolinium] 25/4/2014 10:23

Cyberbub,

Not 'around $30' but under $30:

'Average production cost per kg for the year was less than $30.'

Does anyone know if the internal sales are made at a premium to production cost?

[gadolinium] 25/4/2014 10:16

I imagine Iofina Chemical are pricing their derivatives in line with market prices for competitors paying over $40/kg, so the saving of over $12/kg on raw iodine costs will go straight to the bottom line. Nice!

That competitive edge will only increase with time as iodine prices harden and Iofina Resources opex falls.

[cyberbub] 25/4/2014 10:10

Gadolinium well spotted, I imagine the $28 is selling to IOChem at production cost price, they mentioned around $30.

[che7win] 25/4/2014 10:07

Joe,
take out is a real possibility.

roundup, yes you've hit the nail on the head, the disruption is temporary, leave things better after it's finished.

[nevik2] 25/4/2014 10:05

I'm never having run flat and no spare on a car again. Runflat don't run flat for long, no one ever has your size on the shelf, A spare wheel and you are up and motoring within half an hour. Run flat and no spare, 2 days from my experience. One reason I will not buy a BMW again. The other reason is that leather you pay extra for........ it's vinyl, it splits and you can't repair it, but somehow BMW get away with calling it leather.

[varies] 25/4/2014 10:05

Comforted like everyone else.
I would have liked more info on Iofina Chemical and hoped its profits would be shown separately

[joestalin] 25/4/2014 09:59

I have topped up again this morning - Mr Market seems almost apologetic for his blind panic the other day.

My only concern here is that this could get taken out cheaply - I hope not.

[gadolinium] 25/4/2014 09:53

Intercompany transactions were $4.8 million assuming this is all iodine at 171 mt for the year then Iofina Resources appear to be selling iodine to Iofina Chemical at a price of $28/kg.

[neddo] 25/4/2014 09:53

thanks for the congratulations bad robot, but you are easy.

[semper vigilans] 25/4/2014 09:47

You can put a plug in a run flat - I think they just want to sell more tyres.
They are noisier though.

[miss ann thrope] 25/4/2014 09:44

Me too warm`, why only yesterday I was informed that ,after a puncture occurred my `run-flat` tires ( after one punctured)were not of that ilk, luckily I have rescue cover.The garage I bought the car from have some grovelling to do today,
again luckily I have a full spec in writing- barstewards..

[roundup] 25/4/2014 09:42

We are working with the Operator to re-route brine water to affected plants in order to obtain consistent brine throughput. We also anticipate the continued drilling activity in the area to result in an increase in the supply of iodine-rich brine to existing and planned IOsorb(TM) plants in the area. This is similar to what was experienced at IO#2 upon completion of the Operator's drilling program in 2013. This drilling program confirms the operator's intention to maintain and grow the production area for years to come. The additional plants located in Oklahoma also benefit from warmer brine supplied via direct pipelines from well sites, resulting in higher recovery efficiencies using Iofina's patented WET(R) IOsorb(TM) Technology.This could change everything.

[nevik2] 25/4/2014 09:39

This is one confusing share to be in. Congratulations to anyone that bought in at the bottom the other day. I didn't, to scary for me. All those that sat their Wife down to tell them the bad news, I hope you didn't sell! You might be having another conversation soon if this keeps up.

[iofra] 25/4/2014 09:37

Miss Anne: that's the glass half full view - a rising price also encourages buying from those who have been holding back.

[warmsun] 25/4/2014 09:34

Miss Ann....I am always willing to learn..... :-)

[awolagain] 25/4/2014 09:33

It would also be nice to see Ennis open some long positions...!

[miss ann thrope] 25/4/2014 09:29

erm you may think 50p is " fair" value the share price kind of negates that, my point is that an 80% rise while obviously a good thing is damned elusive, profit takers /break eveners are in the wings and won`t hang around if there is say another 40% jump.

Maybe next year as you say.

[che7win] 25/4/2014 09:28

Excellent testuser,
they can manage the cashflow position this year while concentrating on the new plants optimisation.

Just looking at the 400MT forecast, it looks achievable, maybe they can dare I say it beat it:

Last year they did 171 MT – that's 0.5 MT per day - which is on the low side. We know IO2 had disruption earlier in the year due to fracking which is more or less history - now they have good supply.
Also the optimisation I mentioned before - filters removed by someone for some unknow reason are now back on so downdown will lesson.

This year: 47 MT with 3 plants over 1st quarter – around the same level 0.5 MT per day as the whole of last year. This with an extra plant but hampered by weather and brine supply. No weather issues going into future quarters should improve output of plants 1-3, albeit plant 3 will have some brine disruption. So IO2 should improve going forward rest of year.

Rest of this year – 400 MT forecast which is 400-47 = 117 MT over each quarter – that is with 6 plants and some brine disruption due to fracking.
So they expect 1.3 MT per day roughly the rest of the year. Surely with 6 plants they can achieve that, it looks possible to beat that - this quarter we should have IO2 running at 0.7 MT leaving the other 5 plants to make 0.6 plants between them.

Upside is possible if fracking dies down after the summer.

I think they can beat it if they focus and work on it, at the very least 400 MT looks achievable.

I also see 50p as a realistic minimum price for now. When we get another couple of quarters out of the way and the brine flow becomes better, the market will start pricing in next year.

Just look at the growth, There are companies on P/E's of 50 with less growth than we have:
"Produced 47 MT of crystallised iodine, a 260 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2013;"

[cyberbub] 25/4/2014 09:22

Miss anne are you saying that an 80pc return would be a bad thing??Personally I see 50p as fair value right now, after todays RNS. Then build from there next year, subject to progress.NAI

[cyberbub] 25/4/2014 09:20

Good to see that Numis have also recognised that there is substantial inventory to draw down, hopefully all in the coming year!

[miss ann thrope] 25/4/2014 09:19

Isn`t even the most optimistic scenario in the short/medium term that the share price returns to the 50p `ish current before the fall, which means a rise of another 80%,not a job for widows and orphans to attempt?