Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[malachey] 21/2/2014 09:58

Well we have a week left of February. I would be surprised if we don't get at least the IO4 RNS early next week, so we might see some buying this afternoon in anticipation of that.

[diggulden] 21/2/2014 09:34

SHONNY 21 Feb'14 - 09:32 - 16215 of 16215 0 0 (Filtered)

Thanks for showing up Shonny, bit of a jump in the share price should follow.

[shonny] 21/2/2014 09:32

Recovery is a long way off. Be satisfied if it doesn't drop further.

[malachey] 21/2/2014 08:17

I think we will have a bit of a recovery day today.

[rogerbridge] 20/2/2014 21:44

Not long before we hear about IO4 & IO5. I am quite happy to wait into March as the picture should be more positive and production really gathering pace.
This must be a good entry level for newbies and top up time for long term ears, at least for those who are not full to the brim. After the hiccups of the past, maybe a safer option would be to wait for the next rns.
As suggested earlier, water is rapidly approaching and that would give the share price a huge boost.
I have been very disappointed with the management in recent months, but I believe that events are about to turn positive.

[tictac] 20/2/2014 18:48

Meadow - the risk of a poor response to news that is already in the price is only to those that choose to sell on such news. This would apply to any 'unexpected' good news too that everyone already knows.

If I happened to turn into a pundit overnight then I guess I'd suggest buying here (I'm long), but I wouldn't rush to do so. It would be right up there on my list of stocks not to short though.

[meadow2] 20/2/2014 18:10

One problem will be the publication of the poorer than originally forecast 2013 year-end results in April or May. Hopefully, RSNs produced between now and then will more than offset the 2013 results. Nothing seems to be going particularly well with regard to the share price and I need something to get rid of my pessimistic mood!

[noli] 20/2/2014 17:59

IOC will need an inventory, maybe up to 70/80mt a month, some months will be busy whilst others may not be. As 4+5 come online and more iodine is produced then shift patters should increase as long as ioc have orders.

Over the next 10 months things should really start to pick up, it wont matter as much if a plant has downtime as production will start to average out.

[woodpeckers] 20/2/2014 17:49

noli - "any buyer of iodine is not just going to switch to a producer unless that producer can supply iodine month on month, year on year etc.'

Similarly, bearing in mind the chemical divisions requirements, Iofina wouldn't have sold on the open market unless they were confident that their production was stable and able to cover their own needs. I find it very reassuring that they are prepared to sell on the open market so soon and don't feel the need to stockpile for their own use.

Says a lot. :-)

[che7win] 20/2/2014 17:04

noli,
that is correct, and if you want to get the big orders, you need 100 MT inventory.

If we are on target for 700-1000MT this year, then we only need to sell 300-600 MT worldwide as the Chemical division will use up half or our production. They have already talked about shift work on the Chemical side.

If we narrow the market down to the US, it has over 6000MT consumption but only is self-sufficient in around 1/3rd of that or 2000 MT.

It shouldn't be too difficult to sell 300-600 MT into the US which is importing 4000MT - let alone worldwide.

[noli] 20/2/2014 16:53

Before iofina can be serious about selling into the open market they have to have inventory, we have 3 plants at the moment, IO#1 is the baby or training plant. IOF were buying in around 400mt or 33.3 mt per month so they have to supply IOC first.

As per the rns iof have already sold into the open market, once 4+5 come online then sales should improve as inventory builds. Another way of looking at it is any buyer of iodine is not just going to switch to a producer unless that producer can supply iodine month on month, year on year etc.

[che7win] 20/2/2014 16:51

The Chemical division is in for a good Q1 and a strong year ahead.

Apart from that, raw iodine sales have started, it must be remembered that iodine is sold in 18MT batches.

[iofra] 20/2/2014 16:46

AotN
Don't appear to be any shipments of Iodine from Chile into USA so far this month - normally around 507mT - presumably because of strikes - should be raising a few queries in purchase managers and a ready source from the USA will look very appealing.

[bobsworth] 20/2/2014 16:39

Good question AOTN. Lets hope Iofina give us soon an update on Iodine sales especially with USA unable to import Iodine from Chile last month due to dock strikes!

[angel of the north] 20/2/2014 16:31

All this iodine........silly question but.....what are we doing with it? Lots for the Chemical division but what/how/when are we marketing or selling the surplus? Have we any ideas on sales?

[freshvoice] 20/2/2014 16:27

I think you will find concrete at IO7by now.

[freshvoice] 20/2/2014 16:25

Boggle
We will have Iodine coming out of our ears/towers at this rate! LOL

[che7win] 20/2/2014 16:18

Bogg1e,
include a few mobile unit's too.

[bogg1e] 20/2/2014 16:14

Well we have two promises from the BoD. 1) We shall get quarterly updates, I assume the next will be end march. 2) Every new plant coming online will be RNS'd.
So I assume, given that IO3 onwards are identical modular designs, with identical control systems and automated processing, that IO#4 and 5 will come online with relative ease, 6 soon after. Any hints about IO#7,8 and 9? No-one has posted feedback from the company in ages.

[johncsimpson] 20/2/2014 15:37

ammons - re potential profit (which is close to £3m right now) Ennismore may well struggle to buy the remaining 1.6m shares in one day, so if there's a good news RNS and loads of PIs want in there'll be a right bun fight. So they have to be very savvy about how late they leave it. But as I've said before, these guys are professionals and tend to know what they're doing and maybe (think) they know something we don't.

That 1.6m shares outstanding equates to £160K on the profit line - one way or another - for every 10p move.

[ammons] 20/2/2014 15:27

Ennismore only lose a little bit of profit if they hang on to see if there are any more "hiccups". Even minor ones here are heavily punished by the market.

[noli] 20/2/2014 15:26

Thinking out loud, barring a disaster and whats to come in a short space of time this should be the last time we see these prices. bwdik

[bobsworth] 20/2/2014 15:22

If news is imminent which I believe it is then whats the betting Ennismore will be wanting to close their short position quickly now by mopping up all current sales. What they do not want now is buyers ahead of this news.
Time for a top up then!

[noli] 20/2/2014 15:22

By the above rns on the 29th Jan, as long as iof have all the parts to IO#6 it should be close to being built at the end of the month as it takes 30 days for the ground work and 30 days for construction, then the usual hydro testing.

So my best guess would be middle of March for the hand over, brine is already in place for that one so there should not be any delays on that one.