Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[the fat controller] 27/11/2013 11:46

gad, I cant see anything in the patent that says it belongs to Iofina. It certainly sounds like our process, but where does it say its ours?
TFC

[captain_kurt] 27/11/2013 11:20

Good find gadolinium. I assume Iofina will have to RNS that asap

[gadolinium] 27/11/2013 11:04

Edit: deleted duplicate post

[festario] 27/11/2013 11:03

I have been saying for a while that this 160p area is the lowest point that IOF shares seem to reach.
Which is why I sold some in the 170's and bought them back at this level a couple of weeks ago.
On the same basis, I have just done another top up today.
I think any delays and disappointments are priced in at this level, and any news on the water application or other projects is not.

SCRUTABLE, the last time our posts were adjacent to each other, you accused me of libel, or somesuch, as I had made reference to the fact that you are gathering a reputation for ramping.
How is that re-rating going on CEY by the way?

[scrutable] 27/11/2013 10:53

peterx
what or where is MUNI? Are you referring to Pimco Municiple etc? What competition?

[oldnotbold] 27/11/2013 09:50

Superg, as ever thanks for your excellent research, and fascinating comments about the Chilean situation. The fundamentals will always win out.

With your revised assumptions of output for 2013, what sort of eps are you expecting for this year and next? Market seems to be still expecting a net profit (although negligible) for this year, and £18.5mn of net profit for next. Are these achievable?

In a growth stock, the two key drivers are earnings momentum and new broker coverage. It would be nice to see both.

[superg1] 27/11/2013 08:56

Just for balance as always it works both ways.

In some cases, some bears, not necessarily any we know, but some I've tracked seemed to have it spot on in some shares.

I have to admit in some scenarios I entirely agree with them, and think that the hype posters are completely bonkers, some views seem to defy all logic.

There are some obvious examples from a couple of years back, and where the analysts and tipsters were getting their figures from a mystery. In that particular case the main hype tipster needed to be the one to be looked at, for misleading investors.

There is one quiet share, no hype, nothing really, that looks hugely over-priced but it keeps climbing, I'm sure the bears will spot it at some point.

[nashwan123] 27/11/2013 08:48

For those with an eye on technicals then IOF looks like it will be rising again before close on Friday and almost certainly into next week. RSI bumping off bottom line and MACD 50 day MA looking to cross 200 day MA.

[n3tleylucas] 27/11/2013 08:06

bocker01,

A crowd pleasing sentiment... no doubt, good on you.

Take a little step back for a minute, remember the poster who had a big spread-bet position? Leveraged to the hilt?

You do realise that that poster caused the initial slump?

Think before you blame before you complain.

[superg1] 27/11/2013 08:05

I have no doubt underhand events go on all the time on many shares, predominantly by one sector.

They have done a pump and dump on one share recently all you have to do is check posts of our 'friends' here to see it's the same old lot.

Over the years I've been negative on a few shares and have been amazed at how certain analysts have completely over-hyped certain shares, sometimes with figures that are virtually impossible. I saw that very recently on one, and now wonder what other shares that person has covered in the past.

It's part of the reason why I do so much research, lies are easy, but if you don't know your investment, it can be easy to be misled.

That's why I don't get the herd, often flying in blindly, into the next hype share, then panic at the slightest post against the hype.

[peterz] 27/11/2013 08:00

Anyone having problems logging in to MUNI!! competitor. yesterday and today?

[woodpeckers] 27/11/2013 08:00

che7win, that extract you have quoted suggests to me that management cannot be blamed at all for the delay. They state that they were aware of the manufacturing delays, ordered an additional set of towers, but still felt that they could complete 4,5 and 6 by the end of this quarter. Presumably delays have got worse since then. We can hardly blame them for that.

[johncsimpson] 27/11/2013 07:56

So we can assume that soon they'll have more towers than Blackpool and Paris put together. Thanks che. I must say I missed that - I had an enforced sabbatical for three months back then.

[bocker01] 27/11/2013 07:41

The collapse in the share price earlier this year was without apparent reason. If one was being cynical one might comjecture that the shorters, spread betting companies and market makers were working in concert to manipulate the share price and create a false market. There are enough worthy people ex senior policemen and other professionals invested in this company, and using this thread, to register a rather powerful complaint to the FSA which, at the very least, might give the crooks concerned a wake up call.

[che7win] 27/11/2013 07:26

John/bob,
They knew about the towers issue back in July, this extract is from the operational update 1st August which is why I was so disappointed at the delay:

"Construction of WET® IOsorb™ IO#3 is ongoing, with completion expected at the end of September. Locations for WET® IOsorb™ IO#4, IO#5 and IO#6 have been selected and procurement of plant equipment is largely complete and site leasing is in progress. The Company has seen increased demand in manufacturing for the energy sector in the US as deliveries for the Company's fibreglass equipment, especially towers, are at least four weeks longer than previously envisaged. An additional set of titanium towers have also been ordered and are currently being fabricated. IO#4, IO#5 and IO#6 are scheduled to complete in the fourth quarter of 2013."

[pcjoe] 26/11/2013 23:47

Escape Re -

[e-mail]
[e-mail]


May I suggest we mark any mail FAO Macca?

[bobsworth] 26/11/2013 23:14

I hate to say this but my only criticism of Iofina is that the interim management should have forseen the possible delay of the towers delivery from the Ukraine and acted sooner to find an alternative USA supplier.

The market as demonstrated by Ennismore on the 22nd Nov with their added short position just see this as a further example of delays which apart from the towers have IMHO been caused by a change in direction in plant roll out for the better i.e. higher iodine production.

[escapetohome] 26/11/2013 23:11

May I assist

[e-mail]
[e-mail]

[johncsimpson] 26/11/2013 21:44

Yo SG, totally agree - so shall I tell Ennismore or should we both email them. In fact, it would be a good idea if lots of us emailed them - repeatedly - with every new bit of info that has any validity re the overall picture, in the same way that they use 'sleepers' etc. on these threads to try and instill doubt in the minds of P.Is. Or am I being paranoid?

BTW, I'm not paranoid but on reflection, the email idea has legs.

[superg1] 26/11/2013 21:13

johnC

The predictions were on the back of IOF meeting their roll out plans. 6 plants producing and a water depot.

As in recent posts, it doesn't look like the Chileans can let this price drop. production of 1500mt isn't pie in the sky from the 6 plants based on IOF comments and what little production figures we have.

The first permit is for 80k bpd. Prices at $50 per kg, ignoring chem div mark up would be an annual rate of $75 mill, then the water to add on, 80k at $1 pb gives $29 mill for cold, and we have no idea right now re hot water demand.

Halve the water revenue and it's a $90 mill revenue rate for iodine and water.

So 6 plants delivered and producing add up to multiples of the revenues currently being achieved. They will get to that point in the coming months, then plan to move on beyond that with more plants and maybe more depots.

As shown in earlier posts, the only earthquakes in Chile at the moment are around iodine mines, as the cracks are appearing thick and fast.

Sirocco and SCM Bullmine will be the first to go down the pan imo. If IOF deliver over the next 12 months, they could be in a position to start turning up the pain on the smaller mines.

How could the market not see the Chile situation coming, it was all there in media reports about rising costs lack of power, and water, yet 5 highly rated fund analysts, had SQM as Buy and out-perform on it's peak prices. Those guys probably get paid daft salaries, for producing what is often complete tosh.

What's it now, over $9 billion wiped off the SQM market cap this year. In the annual report earlier this year they were going on the big expansion on iodine and nitrates, it smelt like BS back then, and it sure proved to be exactly that as they fired 400 and closed mines.

[rogerbridge] 26/11/2013 21:07

Thanks for the research SG, IOF prospects are looking brighter by the day. Once the full monthly tonnage for IO1,2 &3 are released and with IO4 & 5 not far away, the share price should respond upwards.
Iodine price level is looking solid.

Then of course there is water not far off.
The share price right now is discounting water, oil and helium.

[bobsworth] 26/11/2013 19:49

With reference to the latest operational update from Iofina

IO#3 Producing Iodine
Record October Production

It states "Construction continues on IO#4 and IO#5. The tower delivery times have been extended and this will cause the expected completion timeframe to be extended into Q1 2014."

Let's hope that extended time frame into Q1 is a short one i.e. 1st week of January – 2nd & 3rd giving Ennismore no time to close their short position.

Looking forward to 2014 when Chilean production continues to decline as Iofina's continues to rise.

[pcjoe] 26/11/2013 19:21

With an election around the corner & a less business friendly opposition likely to get in - No expansive investment decisions regarding Chile for a while methinks - especially when added to prevalent economic/environmental concerns - A few top company officials worried about the changing guard as well - Some dodgy dealing/mining related planning decision shenanigans etc quite likely to end up in court as political pay-back - In the old days a populist elected Govt could be handled by a Generals/CIA/Business & Social Elite Combo - Hopefully Chile moved on from that scenario but still not particularly great news for the ordinary Chilean people - however the politics pan out

EDIT

Its an ill wind that will likely blow us some good.....