Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bobsworth] 21/10/2013 19:49

Ennismore Fund Management Limited increased their short position from 1.13% at the beginning of Sept and from 1% beginning of Aug when the share price was about £1.45 to 1.29%. That's a loss on nearly 0.3% so far!

With the share price now at £1.86, that's an equivalent loss on the additional 0.29% of £0.42!!

That said they started their short beginning of May when the share price was £2.30 so still in profit on the original 1% short.

Easy to say but they should have closed their 1% short at £1.45 instead of adding to it!

With short profit slipping away fast now and big news imminent, they should now close their short very soon.

[crazycoops] 21/10/2013 18:43

The expectation is that we will exit this year with an annualised iodine production rate of between 700 and 1000mt per annum. As long as they hit that expectation, I don't mind whether 4, 5 and 6 are completed by year end or slip into 2014. And my reading of the situation is that they are no longer committed that 4 will be a month behind 3 (that expectation was modified in the September update) but rather, the aim is for 4, 5 and 6 to be completed by year end - if they slip due to supply or customs delays, so be it. Frankly, 1, 2 and 3 up and running at full speed should hit the 700-1000mt per annum range which means we can calculate with a degree of certainty, the base earnings level for the first half of 2014.

[ansana] 21/10/2013 18:37

And IOF up nearly 4%, hmm ... good day at the office Ennismore?

[engelo] 21/10/2013 18:01

sg: after 16.30 the real business starts :-)

edit: looked up Ennis to see if they'd managed a cheap buy and note that they increased their GBO short position last Friday. Unfortunately GBO up 6% to-day...

[superg1] 21/10/2013 17:16

???


181.94 6,518 O 17:13:37
181.94 47,381 O 17:13:27
181.94 26,160 O 17:13:15
181.94 44,904 O 17:12:57
181.94 9,564 O 17:12:46
181.94 9,943 O 17:12:35

[superg1] 21/10/2013 16:55

Sand

I think automation is around the chemical mix release into the brine, at levels to maximise yields.

Covering other recent points this is where the initial run time of maybe 7-10 days (I've heard that timeframe mentioned) to optimise the chemical mix to gets yields at the highest rate they can.

As we know, and mentioned by IOF, each brine supply can have a completely different chemical make up, and temperature, and it's those factors they work with to optimise the yields for each plant. I doubt whether there are two plants alike, the chemical mix additives in theory will be different for every plant.

They can't properly formulate ideal chemical additive levels, in just a few hours of running, so it would take a week or more I imagine to get to the optimum rate and mix. The great thing about the OK area is the piping in of brines. The source and temperature are likely to remain pretty constant, so little tweaking is required once they have identified the optimum mix.

[rogerbridge] 21/10/2013 16:25

You could be correct Sandbag, but I should imagine that the information and expertise gleaned from IO3 and to some extent IO1 & IO2 will help in commissioning IO4,5 &6.

[meadow2] 21/10/2013 16:20

They also said that there might not necessarily be an RNS for every plant. I suspect that they might be covering IO3 in production and progress elsewhere with one report.

[sandbag] 21/10/2013 15:36

The company has told us that the plants are to be more automated. I haven't a clue what this level of automation is but be aware that whilst automation cuts down the labour requirements for running a plant it could add a little extra time onto the commissioning phase.

[ijpax] 21/10/2013 15:26

I'm happy to wait a little longer for an RNS, then hopefully they'll be able to say that IO3 has produced 2,3,4,5 (?) tonnes during the previous week. I'd love to get some production numbers, after all that it what it is all about.

[scrutable] 21/10/2013 15:06

Boggle/Bobsworth

We will not get much more than 60% of capacity out of the plant in the first weeks, but I expect a rise to 90% by the end of the month. It looked to me Friday last and today as though the share price was accelerating slowly to recognise that situation, and I would expect that to continue. But who knows?

[bobsworth] 21/10/2013 14:57

Cheers Bogg1e
Fingers crossed then its already commissioned and they are just monitoring output.

[engelo] 21/10/2013 14:55

Bob: to add to what Bogg1e says the water run through is 24 hrs after which the brine is switched on for a few days to 2 weeks max. All good crystallised iodine product is retained so there's a fine line between commissioning and production.

When IOF tell us is less clear: eg they may want to get to a certain level of brine flow, or (I hope) may wish to include other items in the RNS. Reading between the lines there seems to be a Nomad delay factor to take into account too :-)

[bogg1e] 21/10/2013 14:31

Bob, perhaps it was sg1 who pointed out that commissioning is simply a few days to run water through the plant (I assume at different rates, pressures, perhaps even temperatures) to see if there are any leaks or other faults, then straight into production.

[bobsworth] 21/10/2013 14:28

With reference to Iofina's statement in last Operational Update posted 9th Oct it said " that construction of the IO#3 production plant is currently being finalized and commissioning procedures will begin next week"

Assuming commissioning should not take long, then a full week on we could get an RNS confirming IOF3 commissioned and in production any day now.

Any thoughts on how long commissioning will take and how long they will want to run the plant before informing the market?

Apols if this issue has already been covered.

[scrutable] 21/10/2013 14:15

Festario
"CEY is a share fraught with political problems, court cases and even religious caste issues. It is more of a minefield than a goldmine.
SCRUTABLE, you are rapidly gaining a reputation for ramping rubbish companies around ADVFN. You have gone very quiet regarding GDL?"

Festario - you will earn a reputation for malicious character assassination if you manufacture, then repeat, untruths for which you can provide no evidence for your unpleasant libel.

I only speak well of a very small number of companies with evidence of an outstanding story, and then only on their own threads, except to nominate and justify items on the IOF Tips thread. I do not repeat information nor offer empty opinions both of which are necessary conditions to justly accuse someone of ramping.

If you truly want to know something new and potentially rewarding about GDL read posts of mine from the last fortnigh on that thread. It is empty malice on your part to imply that I have" gone quiet" ie to imply untruthfully that I have regretted the facts previously brought to Pi's attention.

As for your stupid remark about CEY in association with "rubbish companies" a high but rapidly declining political risk behind a very well run and highly profitable company on a 75 % discount to unrisked value does not constitute "rubbish".
Furthermore I can prove an increase of £3,650 in the value of CEY in my portfolio today from that rapidly re-rating share. It is I agree just a matter of opinion that the Egyptian Army has brought greater stability than did the MB president Morsi, and that that is reflected in the re- rating currently taking place.

[ansana] 21/10/2013 14:07

Confirmed IOF will provide a production update. When? tomorrow would be nice.

[bobsworth] 21/10/2013 13:32

Welcome onboard Postman Pat and good luck.

[superg1] 21/10/2013 13:24

If they had hit prior timelines we would be talking about up to io5 producing now and IO6 on the way this quarter.

Had we been at that stage now, what price do most think we would be at?.

Now it seems we will get a rush of plants (io3 to 6) online and producing over a 11/12 week period.

If 5 and 6 are behind, then, make it 16 to 20 weeks. We are talking short periods here in the bigger picture, but I fully understand the view of meeting targets as a confidence boost.

Some funds will demand targets hit, others won't be bothered re slips in timings, but that will be down to individual funds managers.

Looking back, RHPS said get out at 60p ish and shortly after TD waterhouse had clients selling, still in that price range fat prophets said sell half.

No-one can predict what prices will be, but we can judge the likely delivery by a company and the potential impact it could have on the future share price, and interest it may gain.

Getting to io6 on time by the year end, may mean Iofina will become a strong tip for 2014, missing 1 or 2 plants by a few weeks, may mean some look away, but whatever happens, if up to io6 is producing for the large part of next year then no matter which way you look at it, it's a massive step up in production from 2013.

Then they have 6 more to go in next year, with pods joining in on those extremely high/hyper ppm wells.

An issue is the sale price of iodine, which could affect revenues, but for some Chile producers it's a company ending issue. IOF have forecast around $15 per KG going forward as the opex and expect to be the lowest cost producer in the world.

That's where the insurance comes from, along with significantly less capex to increase production. Then the iodine market itself, if demand drops once again some Chile mines will close and the supply demand balance will be maintained.

Iodine is used for, and in, so many applications there seems to be no serious threat to market demand. In fact in the higher prices times, certain sectors went for cheaper products. If the price dropped those sectors would come back, as the iodine based product is more effective and safer.

Then we know that iodine in commercial terms is scarce, Japan with 20% of the market is in decline on resources, and Chile right on it's backside. Then comes the world's biggest producer also going backwards, and being hit by fraud and corruption claims, over the last year or so.

Taking the circs of the supply/demand growth in recent years, barriers to entry, opex and capex position v competitors, the resource, the patent, US 80% plus imports and so on. Then I can't think of a better sector to be in.

Iodine is boring if you don't understand it. There is nothing else in the EU markets like IOF. IOF seems to be only one of 3 serious iodine investments, the other two being SQM and Sirocco. Only one has performed well over the last year or two.

IOF are throwing all of their concentration into the core business, and as we know, are not distracted by the very lucrative water business they have unfolding in front of them.

The team looks fantastic, the prospects look incredible, they have the business plan, they are executing it, and they have 'free' extras, that in their own right, could be viable,lucrative businesses.

So while some may have bought on the highs, when you look at the bigger picture and think 1 year ahead, where will IOF be, based on the business plan.

If you look back about 12 months it was 70p with a plant built and predicted to do 1mt per week.

If we look forward 1 year that should mean 10/11 plants, pods, a water depot (maybe more) in place.

iodine from 1 mt per week to probably 40mt plus per week (taking a conservative view). On current prices $50k per week to $2 mill per week.

That is what is on the cards, and that's what I look at, so slippages here and there on plants doesn't worry me.

Then of course if IOF demonstrate actual growth like that, some very large funds will have shown interest well before that time, that's if they are not already looking of course. :-)

[postman_pat] 21/10/2013 12:42

Yes I got my free 725 free shares for my pension pot now worth £3,800 up from £2,392!

[freshvoice] 21/10/2013 12:15

i think this will be last chance to buy in the 170s.

[engelo] 21/10/2013 12:12

Postman Pat: welcome :-) don't think you'll be disappointed. Also added a few this am.

[rhwillcol] 21/10/2013 12:10

Postman Pat: well done - don't think you'll be disappointed. Did you buy some Royal Mail shares also?!