Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[engelo] 21/10/2013 12:09

SG: thanks for the mature standpoint :-) Absolutely with you on small delays. In IOF's case they are absolutely on top of the build and commissioning process (very similar for each plant) and only externals can effect them. It's very much better than say, a miner or an oilie where delays may happen for a wide variety of reasons.

Re reporting periods the H2 results will be significant imo in that IOF's profitability will become more visible, so expect another bounce at that point.

Finally one thing the mkt will have to get used to: IOF tell the truth :-) Every other company out there spins it a bit.

[postman_pat] 21/10/2013 12:06

Just climbed on board for the long term with a small purchase of 3,684 shares!

Been watching Iofina all summer after the surprise fall back.

Decided to buy in now on the hope of some very good imminent news.

[che7win] 21/10/2013 12:00

Warrensearle,
That is precisely the point I made to the company last week - I can tell you from my reply that they are thinking that way too.

We will see how that pans out going forward, perhaps we already have with the conservative forecasts recently.

[che7win] 21/10/2013 11:57

Engelo,
This years earnings are irrelevant to me, next years earnings are going to explosive.

We should 9 plants producing by June 2014, so H2 2014 will be really interesting!

The way this market is, anything with the growth we have behind us will attract high valuations, I tend to think a P/E of 30 shouldn't be ruled out.

£7.50 end of next year would do very nicely.

[warrensearle] 21/10/2013 11:50

SG I agree with you to a large extent why should a long term holden care if the plants are commissioned on time or a few months late The reason why I care is time and time again I see companies over promise and under deliver much much better to give conservative estimates of project milestones and over deliver Why? Because Iof is still an early stage business and any slippage will be punished by the market and then we get another spread bet accelerated price drop long term holder or not no one wants to see that.

[dontshoutatonce] 21/10/2013 11:48

Re that sg. I'm so glad there are clear thinkers on this instead of calculators who only calculate and won't think enough. I always look forward to reading your posts, especially as they are intelligible and coherent. Don't know how you find out so much and it's good that you (and some others) are on the case and I agree with almost all that you say. Sorry for all those who have to sell in these tricky economic months and hope they come back to us buying and grinning, as things are looking good +, to me.
Who cares if it rains all month!

[engelo] 21/10/2013 11:29

che7win: PE of 20 sounds good. Would that be the 2013 E that you're thinking of, or 2014 :0 ))

Imo just needs I03 to get announced and the mkt will begin to realise that 2014 is getting close and many more plants are coming... and maybe a bit of E from water too :-)

[superg1] 21/10/2013 11:22

They said io4 was 4 weeks behind io3 but that they had a 4 week delay supply time on towers due to the supply chain boom in the oil sector.

So I assume io4 won't be 4 weeks behind io3, but it may be, I don't know, but then unlike most here, I'm not really bothered if they just get to io4 producing by the end of December or io6. They could take a month or two more. I'm not selling any this year or next, if the general plan remains the same, so short term delays, which happen in just about every business, are of no interest to me.

On my calcs with io1 to 3 producing at good rates, they are more or less at/beyond the 700mt daily rate, with io4 on adding to the pot. So imo they will hit that lower target no problem.

3 plants (io4 to 6) will be at various stages of completion, I doubt even the company know right now exactly which site will be io4, a simple pump issue at one could mean the perceived io4 could become io5 or 6. The numbers simply relate to the next plant up and running and with 3 so close together.

IMO far too many investors, and the market become blinkered by financial reporting periods.

Months back the market gave ATUK a kick in the teeth re the results, but ATUK had already rns'd that a payment was just into the next report period. The 'market' knocked the price down to 7p ish on the 'bad' news, and then it marched off up to 8 times it's price.

If we all wait around for backward looking reports, one is never going to be able to predict future price moves.

[engelo] 21/10/2013 11:18

che7win: Thanks for feedback.

Think our baseline is that I03 is commissioned and producing by now and just awaiting confirmation.

After that afaict the critical item is tower delivery: we know from the PI presentation that I04 was delayed because of this. As of a couple of weeks ago there were 3 towers on 'short term' order, awaiting delivery, for I04,5,6: one from overseas and 2 from different suppliers in the US. We know from IOF that the towers are interchangeable, so it only needs one tower to be delivered to break the log jam and they can instal it wherever the build is most advanced.

Not absolutely sure whether 'procurement complete' means one or more towers delivered, but sounds likely and would be a huge step forward and would avoid a 3 plant pileup in December.

IOF have also advised that after these deliveries the tower procurement lead times for I07,8 etc will be shorter and they are ordering ahead to make sure this doesn't happen again.

[warrensearle] 21/10/2013 11:07

Not for me dig I want them to deliver what they have told the market in the timescales they have laid out.. much more comfortable if 3 and 4 complete by end of this month giving two whole months to concentrate on 5 and 6

[sandbag] 21/10/2013 11:06

"I just want them all to be constructed by the end of this year. That will be 'on track' enough for me."

Me too. I don't care if "commissioning" goes on into the new year. After a lifetime in heavy construction the the phrase "On time and within budget" comes third to me after "Your cheque is in the post"

[diggulden] 21/10/2013 10:50

My only measure of roll out on track is IO6 constructed by end of year.

The timing of when IO4, 5 and 6 are online don't worry me too much at the moment, I just want them all to be constructed by the end of this year. That will be 'on track' enough for me.

[sandbag] 21/10/2013 10:10

Warrensearle,

"Working on site development" is a bit vague

No, it isn't actually. Site development is quite specific. They're levelling the site, putting in drains, roads, cable ducts, etc, etc.

[warrensearle] 21/10/2013 09:50

"Working on site development" is a bit vague expectations they have set is Io3 commissioned and producing this week and Io4 completed by end of October I.e in 9 working days time. I note the language of recent RNS is now talking about 4-6 being completed by year end ....

[che7win] 21/10/2013 09:47

Also,
At some stage the market should rerate us to a forward P/E of 20 minimum.

Depending on when we get visibility of the water grant, surely that means a share target of £5 some time over the next year. If the roll out expectations this next few months stay on track, that target price could be sooner that we expect.

[che7win] 21/10/2013 09:43

Roger,
I expect it will be soon :-)

[rogerbridge] 21/10/2013 09:35

Let's hope it is later this week chew.

[che7win] 21/10/2013 09:28

This market is on fire right now.
Any mildly positive news here should be received well.

Part of the companies recent reply to me:

"As stated in our release last week, on October 9th, we are in the process of commissioning our IO#3 production plant and expect to be producing iodine from it shortly.

As for #4, #5 and #6 we continue to work diligently to get them on line as soon as possible. As we have announced, all the procurement has been completed and we are working on site development."

[festario] 19/10/2013 23:04

I know... words like 'juxtaposed' scare me, it's the type of word that my scrabble opponents hit me with, for about 83 points!

[the fat controller] 19/10/2013 21:43

Juxtaposed, eh?
TFC

[bogg1e] 19/10/2013 21:42

QFI is epic. SueYOu is the chief research nut on the QFI thread, very well worth reading.

[silverpen] 19/10/2013 21:22

I rarely post but always follow the threads. As alternative AIM's are being discussed how about QFI and AFC Energy. Juxtaposed but very credible. I know Boggle often post's on QFI.

[jonnyno1] 19/10/2013 15:07

It's certainly not one of the more obvious shorts in the market. J.