Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 27/5/2013 13:06

JS

I've out it in the header now. It is a good read covering much of what is going on in the Bakken area.

The thing I like, is that they thought their appearance on the AIM, is the first exposure available on the UK market, for investment in the boom in North Dakota.

[beercapafn] 27/5/2013 12:36

Digg, bit harsh, john was just being helpfull. Opps, should have, oh never mind.

[diggulden] 27/5/2013 12:27

Johncsimpson, the best thing about being a 'blue' is you can private message other members. Can I suggest that you simply reply to these people requesting the report 'directly through the messaging system' instead of clogging up the BB.

Seven of your last 10 posts have related to this Bison report.

[n3tleylucas] 27/5/2013 12:15

Nice weather for wearing shorts.

[johncsimpson] 27/5/2013 12:03

Two more requests for the Bison Energy Report. Please go back to post 260 where 'Battery' uploaded a direct link which is:

[worraps] 27/5/2013 11:51

Lovely reminder of the story, superg.

[neddo] 27/5/2013 10:56

great read sg

[superg1] 27/5/2013 10:43

Beer

4 years is far too long imo they would be flooded with cash by then on delivery.

The simple reason for the bond was to make cash available now. I understand the loan route would have taken 6 to 9 months.

IOF clearly want to go aggressive now on the plant roll out.

Take io2 on that last rns, I'm not sure if anyone spelt out what io2 is doing as of this month.

They said io2 and 2 going at a rate of .8 to .9 mt per day. We know io1 was on 1mt per week, and from figures I doubt that has changed too much.

1mt per week = .15 per day. Taking .85 as the average, io2 has been doing .7mt per day off just 18,700 bpd.

Taking the iodine price as $60 kg revenue (it surely is considering chem div mark up) that's $42k revenue per day for IOF.

Taking the upper $15 per kg opex that's $31.5k per day profit.

$945k profit per month from io2 using May's figures and other figures quoted.

So over $10m per year rate on io2 and it's only just over half capacity rate on old lower ppm brines.

The ppm's around the area are better than the current brines being used.

As Sky says 1mt per is easily achievable when plants are near full capacity.

Up to io6 this year, so we could see 5 mt per day for io2 to 6 as we go into 2014.

$225,000 per day profit, $6.75 million per month from 6 plants. Then at least 6 more going next year, probably more.

Also the hint that there is a slim chance io7 and 8 could be started before the year end.

5mt per day is around 1,800mt PA and fits the claim that they will be producing more than the US current output (1500mt) by the year end, as an annualised rate.


The bond is simply a fast track cash pile, to act now while the troubles for Chile exist. Iof are simply acting on the opportunity while others struggle.

They know they are struggling and need high prices. They also knew, from even just a few months back, that everyone was clueless about what they have.


Even the above figures are discounted as we talk 1mt per day, when in reality plants on 30k bpd on certain brines can do more.

As on their website they have brines where they can do 450mt plus. They have trying to keep things under the radar, and they are now rolling out on premium ppm's, all in a concentrated area.

It doesn't take much to work out what's coming.

I think Investec have added 25% down time for plants. Io1 has been running for 98% of the time since last August. So they can more or less turn it off until August now to hit Investec's target

Io2 won't achieve that this year due to that extreme weather (snow) on start up., but it seems it will be high (90% range)and way above 75% run times.

In fact I use 90% yields for calculations but it's looks like they will go 95% plus.

Incredible tech, and anyone in industry would consider the performance of new big plants, achieving such great results so quickly, is stunning.

Industry pay back on outlays is supposed to be 5 years, not a few months.

[n3tleylucas] 27/5/2013 10:38

"you cant raise 15 $ million and then pay a divi"

Let's make a cent of profit 1st eh? Morning dreamers.

[ramu kumar] 27/5/2013 10:35

If one's holdings is in SB, how does it work for divis? TIA

[supreme mo] 27/5/2013 08:42

I'm inclined to agree with the beer captain. Personally speaking I would like to see any surplus cash going towards an aggressive rollout of more large or mini plants. The payback period is astounding for the capex of each plant - the more of these plants we have running the greater the take out price a suitor would have to pay... Over the next year or two we should be in a position to take the iodine industry by the throat if we can get 20+ plants up and running.... then we can enjoy some good divis! A divi could come into play if they were to sell the water business and then pay a special divi from the proceeds. Whilst a divi would be nice, I am purely invested here for the purpose capital growth, not income.

[orslega] 27/5/2013 08:36

monts - I agree, water JV was never ruled out and the door is still wide open - although IOF have changed direction by going \"it alone\" at this juncture, all they have done is to potentially create greater shareholder value from that non core asset...oil, if this turns out to be commercially viable, I also think IOF will farm this out, risk free to IOF. Win win for shareholders and enables the focus on iodine production, chemical division to continue - where there is much to do to achieve the desired world ranking.

as for dividends beercapafn - there was some discussion I recall post PI meeting earlier this month - if the currently planned roll out is achieved end of 2013, with some of the water rights granted then come mid 2014 IOF will be a serious generation cash cow, easily financing all its future roll out itself. If this is the case, a maiden dividend could well arrive at the end of next year. Very achievable imo.

[skylite] 27/5/2013 08:19

So you don\'t see any spare cash on, lets say, 10 sites doing, lets be conservative here, 1 mt per day? A distinct possibility in 1 years time.

I think the board would be more than happy to be bought out, for a fair and reasonable price, well before any divis get paid.

[beercapafn] 27/5/2013 07:14

Months. Dont hold your breath, even though the BoD implyed a while ago that they were not well paid, you cant raise 15 $ million and then pay a divi.I would think 4 years plus for Iof to have surplus funds. Likely to be taken out before then imo. That would be the div...

[monts12] 26/5/2013 22:12

Naphar
I think IOF have stated in the past that they would only consider partner option with oil. Actually it looks as though they will go the JV route with water as well. I know there's the possibility of lots of free cash in the future but they have indicated that if we ever get to that stage this would be distributed as divis :-)
Happy to be corrected though...

[senden11] 26/5/2013 21:28

Thanks to you guys for all of these valuable insights/views. Always enjoy
reading the board and would like to be part of the new thread Superg1, if
that\'s possible - I think I\'m on Lib\'s list. We have a reasonable holding
in this house which we hope to add to and keep well into the future, provided
we don\'t get swallowed up first! Many thanks in advance and keep up the good
work.

[naphar] 26/5/2013 19:39

If no JV comes on the oil, I wonder if they might go it alone for a few wells once they are making enough free cash flow, or if water is sold off that could fund it easily. Like the water, why take a share if you can afford to develop yourself? Surely they can buy in the staff expertise. If they were to develop a couple of successful wells themselves, I would have thought the value of the acreage would increase and their share of a JV would then be higher. As we know, IOF seem to be all about increasing shareholder value, when funds allow this would surely be a good way if the oil is there and commercially viable.

[freshvoice] 26/5/2013 18:00

If 3forks has been pushed up in IOFs area that could be good news in terms of anticlines forming.

[superg1] 26/5/2013 12:58

Engelo

Iofina are the only ones with the data. They picked it up with the leases, $11m worth of 3D surveys.

IOF had a far larger acreage position, but reduced it to the areas with solid indications of 3 forks and other shales.

What's left amounts to over 200k acres ( I see 290k in some reports) of 3 forks shale at 100 feet thick. They have some Alberta Bakken too.

As said in earlier rns's they consider there is a chance of reasonable oil.

'Reasonable' is probably the usual downplay by IOF.

From a recent well report in the area, we can see the 3 forks. Where IOF are, the 3 forks has been pushed up by plate movement, and looks to be as shallow on IOF's acreage.

It looks to be about half the depth as over in ND and eastern Montana.

That obviously considerably reduces well costs.

In theory the longer they don't JV on it the higher the value goes, as there is a scramble for acreage in the area, with the USGS comments hot off the press.

So if IOF have oil in the 3 forks, which seems likely, then it's a one stop shop for a partner.

IOF could provide water from Atlantis for fracking, and they already have some disposal wells in place.

I believe the USGS did say the have only covered a small section of the 3 forks so far.

[engelo] 26/5/2013 12:44

Trying to catch up on the Williston basin and Bakken/3 Forks geology. Never quite understood how they interrelated. Apologies to the experts on here, but found this link very clear as a starter and might help new joiners:

http://www.shaleexperts.com/plays/bakken-shale/Overview

According to this, the 3 Forks extends wider than the Bakken into Montana. The recent USGS estimates were very strong on 3 forks and the implications are beginning to dawn on me :-)))

Help please: there must be a straightforward map delineating Iofina\'s acreage out there somewhere but can\'t find one :-(

[n3tleylucas] 26/5/2013 10:46

My heart is beating in a different way
Been gone such a long time and I feel the same

Will you miss me?
When there's nothing to see?
Tell me, how did this come to be?

[n3tleylucas] 25/5/2013 20:04

Now then SCRUTABLE, let us all hear a few real words of wisdom from you, this long sunny weekend.

Here is a wonderful song, just for you. Cheers.

[neddo] 25/5/2013 15:56

no probs s/m, I have the d/ heads filtered as most have,

[supreme mo] 25/5/2013 12:47

Please accept my apologies neddo done in error. Amended now - just sent you a mail.