Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 24/6/2013 14:00

Run rate for year 2014 with margin of safety built in:

#1 and recycling: 110 MT
#2: 300 MT
#3: 300MT
#4: 300MT
#5: 300MT
#6: 200MT
WET mobile units: 300 MT

Total: 1810 MT, EPS = ~24P so current forecast P/E at this price is 6.

Ignores any upside to production for each plant.

I bought as much as I could this morning for that reason.

DYOR.

[jonnyno1] 24/6/2013 13:55

Today's price movement is not surprising, i had long thought that there were a considerable number of pi's with heavy gearing through spreadbets without the collateral to back it up. Scruts statement that he traded at the the margin threshold was an exmaple. When you have this situation (a bit like on the way up) the price movements are amplified so if the market makers smell blood they move in for the kill which is what they have done today. They are the proffesionals, they are ruthless and that is why they make their money, a lot of it.

im still here and not going anywhere.
j.

[ammons] 24/6/2013 13:54

Scrut may be old but his sphericals must be made of solid steel!! I hold fully paid for shares but my pants still went somewhat brown this morning! Spreads?? I'd have probably had a heart attack!

[warrensearle] 24/6/2013 13:51

Wayne it won't be long before he's mentioning ASOS and Warren Buffett again :)

[warmsun] 24/6/2013 13:50

Cheers sg, also, if it is a record volume it is also on a higher share price..if you follow?
ie, 7 million at say, when the share price was 50p, is much lower in £value than the value as at today....big monies now interested here...which isn't necessarily what we wanted at this point in time.

[skylite] 24/6/2013 13:49

Yes scruts but the shorters/MMs/traders all saw the door left ajar after CFs calamitous RNS; this is a great company and it should now be singing it from the rooftops, there's no need for reticence anymore.

Iofina badly need Lance 2 so Chris and Jeff can go fishing.

[superg1] 24/6/2013 13:46

Warm

Exactly re a wake up call, and yes on volumes.... unsurprisingly.

[wayneduncan] 24/6/2013 13:46

Highlight of a tough morning for me has been scrutable's post above saying this will be a "100 bagger" - just can't help yourself with the ramping can you mate?

[nevmyers] 24/6/2013 13:45

where is Ansana today? shopping I bet lol

[warmsun] 24/6/2013 13:38

Is this a record volume day, anyone know?

[warmsun] 24/6/2013 13:36

As i said earlier, at the very least it will be a wake up call to the BoD

[bocker01] 24/6/2013 13:32

Probability is that L&G are out now. If so any excess supply is only likly to be from those spooked by these shennanigans.

[bobbyshilling] 24/6/2013 13:31

Well I hold more shares now than I did last week. For any long termers wanting to add this has been a nice bonus. If you have bought your shares outright, it is only a paper loss unless you sell. Fundamentals of the company have not changed.

[superg1] 24/6/2013 13:28

For the record I don't post to create favour's for myself. As I have said all along.
I could have made a packet trading IOF but imo if you posting to support trades is not 'cricket'. I just hold.

As Scruts says the position is unchanged, the h2 bpd/ppm rate is suggested to be far better.

Obviously it doesn't change the end game but has shifted some shares to other holders and now more or less completely cleared margins and forced sells.

Surprise surprise we had big buyers in the drop. But with the overall market something had to give.

IOF PR could have been significantly better, but hey ho at least they underplay it, and the true picture should break near term.

[diggulden] 24/6/2013 13:21

Just to point out SG's post from earlier in case it was missed in the madness.

superg1 - 24 Jun 2013 - 11:48:27 - 3400 of 3460
There is no bad news, just shorts playing on fears.

Square1 did try to warn you. My research tells me all is very good indeed with 3 and 4 build started.

[scrutable] 24/6/2013 13:16

Today's shennigans are no reflection on the value of IOF. They are purely the churning by market makers and shorters exploiting the BOD's 'below the radar' stance ie the absence of RNS confirmation of the company's real time progress and immediate potential.

That hasn't changed at all.

The minimum profit rate at exit 2014 on current iodine price levels, and on the opex, roll out, and modest 300mT/pa production figure given at the AGM are from my calculations likely to be £89m-119m.- consistent with a share price of £10-£14

There are still substantial upsides to those figures to derive from any production out performance above 300mT/pa per plant. This covers commissioning of the first 12 plants by end 2014, and there are apparently a further 188 to come over the years ahead. It does not even cover Water profits.

At 180p the share has, and will again have, 10-bagged and on these figures will do so again IMO by mid 2015 (thus reaching the magic over all x100 bag level

I am neither surprised nor much chastened by today's events. I have picked myself up from an appalling loss, and am already rebuilding leverage as the share price recovers. We are about to experience my often used metaphor - a 'Rock fall into the Lake' event. After a gigantic splash and small tidal wave the surface of the lake resumes its former calm. Nothing will have changed except in the mind and in our bank accounts. The future is still terrific.

[hitsha3] 24/6/2013 13:12

Lost lot of money on paper, but still here and staying long.

[hew] 24/6/2013 12:59

I understand the wishes for really bullish RNS presentations, but I don't see it as any big deal. Certainly not to the extent that has been reflected here.

I hope people are not seeking a ramping attitude. Many AIM "new wonder companies" have used it - and they have needed it. They were essentially bets on possible future successes - if their tech worked, they could persuade some big outfit to adopt it and the wider world would actually pay for it. None of those apply to IOF.

We have already been informed of what I listed during panic-time this morning and I'm going to put again below for the benefit of any new here. Conservative calculations based on these facts show the present price range is entirely reasonable. It might be nice to have had a little shinier wording recently, but we have already been formally told the following. It's enough for me to be going on with anyway.

Chemicals:

"The chemicals business continues to trade in line with expectations." A reminder of expectations from the 2012 Results:

Record revenues underline continued strong performance ........ product sales up over 49% year on year, and this performance has continued in early 2013.......... Continued sales expansion worldwide .........continue to develop new relationships and strengthen our cooperation with existing customers.......... R&D efforts remain strong .......... development of new, high-value products.....

Iodine production:

IOsorb™ production plants IO#1 and IO#2 continue to perform to a high technical level

Optimisation successful for varying brine conditions, substantiating success of WET/ IOsorb

A faster roll-out of additional production facilities underway via Bond funding secured, with standardised plant process and construction.

Production outages: due only to transients, understood and short term

IO#3 will be completed in Q3 2013

IO#4 scheduled for completion circa 30 days after

Operators currently being trained

IO#5 and IO#6 construction bids in, completion scheduled for Q4 2013.

Considering units for handling up to 50K bpd

Considering mobile units for sites identified with hyper iodine content at low volume.

Montana water permit strongly expected and land for pumping station and water secured

[roundup] 24/6/2013 12:59

We have got our RNS, management have done what was required. That should be enough to allay fears that there might be bad news coming out. I don't know why some are still selling. Of course some are already cashing in profit this AM--understandable

[writz] 24/6/2013 12:59

Well it seems I missed the excitement. Never pleasant to lose value, but if you wanted proof that one or more big investors have decided to take a position, here it is.

[skylite] 24/6/2013 12:49

I'm racking my brains to remember another American company who have so much to shout about but say so little. If I may say, it's very British of them.

[alwilliamson] 24/6/2013 12:48

I agree with you neddo - needed to be said.