Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[woodpeckers] 17/11/2014 16:39

Thanks for clarifying Bob.

[superg1] 17/11/2014 16:24

Funding for a water plant, or a JV with cash or sale of the entire water business gives a numbers scale which could vary the options considerably.

The last cash comment was $7.5 mill which included a potential separate cash raise for the water div.

The 50% of the revenue of Atlantis was $15 mill and that included all depot costs by the partner.

$10m to $30m cash (part or all sold) is a big difference to go it alone on water.

The first step is the award of the permit.

The 2015/2016 outlook for iodine has a range of options depending on what they do re water.

[che7win] 17/11/2014 16:23

Bob, That's good news, I had read it wrongly too.So no delay, we get the strategy review first as expected ?

[captain_kurt] 17/11/2014 16:18

Licensing the tech to the Japanese while we carry on expanding in the US sounds like a great plan

[dcgray21] 17/11/2014 16:15

"The Company's management team is in the process of finalising its next business growth plan and intends to update the market on the Company's plans for 2015 and BEYOND (my capitals ) once this process is fully complete."- will be intriguing to see the plan and level of detail presented for beyond 2015 in light of IOF's recent bullish comments about becoming the world leader in iodine production.

[che7win] 17/11/2014 15:53

Did anyone see Putin at the G20?He looked isolated, but more importantly, he looked downright dangerous, who knows what he's going to do in Ukraine or elsewhere.The world is getting more volatile, hard to know what lies ahead, but one thing is for sure, the U.S. are in a much happier situation with their own oil supply.Middle East is getting more unstable, slightly off topic but oil prices are assuming no political risks imo.

[woodpeckers] 17/11/2014 15:27

I think it's starting to become very apparent why the BOD need plenty of time to go through the many and varied options open to it before they can present conclusions of the review.
A great position to be in! :-)

[battery] 17/11/2014 15:17

Cyber.My thoughts are it could be a bit of both. A fixed up front annual fee plus a smallish % of production revenues.

[aja5] 17/11/2014 15:17

Is that a buy order completed I wonder?

[cyberbub] 17/11/2014 14:56

I think people are underestimating this Japanese patent award... it seems to have massive potential medium/long-term... obviously it will need negotiation and enforcement...

[cyberbub] 17/11/2014 14:51

Agreed. It's no different to farming out the water business: ie. we can get a very nice income stream from Japan with zero capital requirements. Or we can go head to head with Japanese producers, raise capital for our own plants, and take all the profits. A nice dilemma to have - enabled by the patent award! Just like our water business will be enabled by the water permit!I understand that the Japanese industrial market is notoriously difficult for foreign companies to break into, and the domestic producers would probably react badly to competition... personally I would think that a juicy royalty coming in would be a better approach... but that we should try for a percentage of sale price not a fixed amount, so we don't lose out when iodine prices climb over $50 again LOLNAI

[battery] 17/11/2014 14:30

Fresh.True, but I don't see IOF setting up plants in Japan any time soon. If we priced the annual fee + royalties right the licensee would still be disadvantaged cost wise compared to us but at an advantage cost wise compared to the rest of the competition.Lance could be standing at the gates of the company counting the large crates of cash from the licensee whilst the company is still rolling its own plants out in USA.20k mt with a royalty of say $2.5 a kg from a market we don't compete in....

[crosseyed] 17/11/2014 13:47

superg1,
Thanks for obtaining clarification on that point.
c

[superg1] 17/11/2014 13:38

Like for like is the answer.

So the 25% covers sales up to 31st Oct in each year. Sales 25% up when compared to sales up to the end of October last year.

[freshvoice] 17/11/2014 13:35

Nice to see good production figures confirmed,( even if they don't mention record)

[freshvoice] 17/11/2014 13:33

Surely you don't licence your competitor and allow them to compete on equal terms when you have such a cost advantage as we have.

[battery] 17/11/2014 13:22

IIRC Japan produces around 12k mt of iodine p.a. The process they use is dirty from an environmental POV and again IIRC is around 60% efficient at extraction.I have long believed that the Japanese iodine producers would prefer to go down the licencing route, its very a common approach in my industry. The would licence IOF technology and build plants in Japan under that licence. They pay an annual licencing fee to be allowed access to the technology and a small (say 5%) royalty on every tonne they produce. So to me today's RNS builds on this theory.Taking the 12k mt p.a. and 60% efficiency and applying IOF tech with its much higher recovery rate they could boost their production from the existing feed to almost 20k mt. Conversely they could use less of their dwindling brine supply to maintain the current production rate.A minor worry to me with regards the situation in Chile concerns the potential take over scenario. Although we say SQM and co couldn't afford to allow the Japanese to buy us, given their financial weakness could they actually afford to mount any form of counter bid if it occurred.

[rhwillcoll] 17/11/2014 12:55

Halliburton agreed to buy Baker Hughes - just announced:

[superg1] 17/11/2014 12:50

Neddo they haven't said anything new.

They have added news onto the patent saying all is on track which contravenes what some were trying to say last week when they warned/lied that production warning news was coming.

Mr B has made enough comments about market makers and I agree. Most call it games but that is the business they are in, they will move it to get action one way or the other.

They can try moves either way to take out stops, whether it's a buy or a sell order, depending on what average price they are looking for.

[bocker01] 17/11/2014 12:43

Very valid points Che. As always. Rational, sensible and shrewd!

[che7win] 17/11/2014 12:30

If we get a granted water application, a JV is bound to follow soon after.

With $7.5m on the balance sheet at last count and an upfront water payment in a JV, we are likely to have 30-50% of the market cap in cash before year end.

That makes the current price extremely undervalued, it values the water, iodine, oil, helium at less than £25m.

I can imagine a predator seeing an opportunity too good to miss, the market is strange at times.

DYOR.

[superg1] 17/11/2014 12:29

Naphar the twist post presentations was that some receivables were due and in excess of the $7.5mill cash that was quoted.

From 'over $20m' to over $23.5 mill seems too high just for the month of October as it would have needed $3 mill in sales at least v over $7 for the 3 previous months.

You will know better than I how and when receivables get booked.

For now I think it's the like-for-like period.

If not it's from good news, to very good news as they talked of a probable slow down in Q4, which is typical in the iodine market.

[1madmarky] 17/11/2014 12:23

I doubt that they will have a mobile unit yet. I think they have concentrated entirely on the 6 main plants. They need to understand and optimise production. Walk before trying to run again. AIMHO