Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[uriney] 02/3/2014 14:14

Alpha,

Maca is a paid minion for Ennismore, nothing more, look at his profile and posting record. Ennismore researchers dig up the info and Maca gets paid a pittance for posting it.

Uriney

[alphacharlie] 02/3/2014 13:53

Well warming up around here isn't it??? I see JCS got some stick from the other board. Whilst looking there, I found this from the maca – part of his post 6984. I have noticed that Maca states things he has a habit of backing it up with a link to a document that is often 100s of pages long without referencing the bit of that document that is actually relevant. This is only a few pages long so is anyone with an understanding of the water permit etc. and how it impacts, able to explain what it is or isn't that IOF have misinformed us of??? Thatapart, I don't know how he can conclude that –
'This level of what IMO borders on misinformation issued or encouraged (and certainly not corrected) by the company's management does not augur well for those who still put trust in the company's management to deliver on iodine'.

Comparing apples with pears there.

Maca's post -
The state of the water supply situation in the Culbertson locality where IOF are proposing to build their water terminal has now been confirmed on the DRNC website - have a read of the documents here:



Click on view in the doc image column and look at the last document filed.

And then recalibrate the value of the water business accordingly. This level of what IMO borders on misinformation issued or encouraged (and certainly not corrected) by the company's management does not augur well for those who still put trust in the company's management to deliver on iodine.

[ammons] 02/3/2014 11:57

For IO2, 3 and 4 to be in the same area it does suggest something special there in terms of available brine. And the increased drilling activity which will be less disruptive as time goes on....... Very nice.

[ansana] 02/3/2014 11:47

Titus I look at BB every now and again and did today because of Che7 post. The excitable refers to their use of language "fervor" which amused me. I don't trade I am invested as you will know from the length of time I have been here. I have great patience. Anyway good to hear that you consider things are on the up as I do. I am looking forward to being excitable when the share price moves North :-)

[titus10] 02/3/2014 10:28

Ansana (16583)

The Bulls candlestick analysis is for traders, not investors. I've an idea their computerised interpretations were put together (and redeveloped a year or so back) by some Turks, fwiw. Disregard their Signal History, if you access the Signal page, as I would wager nobody has ever succeeded in applying the sequence as listed, despite their nominal slippage factor, to obtain in real life the outcomes shown.

As I believe you take a peek at the IOF TA thread from time to time, you may like to know that the Intermediate Term Buy signal from my own TA "system" recorded there on 5th February remains in force and seems to be developing as envisaged (post 93, penultimate paragraph).

Sorry, but reality isn't necessarily "excitable"!

[meadow2] 02/3/2014 10:14

superg1

Any news re IO7, 8 and 9? Given that IO6 could well be finished in a month or so, the construction crews will be available soon.

[superg1] 02/3/2014 10:09

Naph good point.

All that work still says the io2 site is of a good ppm and if they process high quantities of brine then it should equate to good production.

Going on the recent history, Mid states were having oil loss above industry acceptable standards. In other words their oil skimming tech was causing them oil loss.

From comments at a presentation, way back, 10 days and $20k worth of oil was mentioned. So around 200 bpd of oil per day. It sounds like a lot of oil but on the 18k bpd of brine back then it only equates to just over 1% of the brine coming in.

I recall reading somewhere that the desired oil loss in produced brine should be no higher then 0.03% which would be 9 bpd on 30k bpd of brine v an apparent 300bpd had Io2 been on 30k bpd back then.

So when they said residue build up and clean, it was probably down to Midstates tech not being up to scratch at the time. Midstates as pointed out by rug a while back have be on a drive to sort operational efficiencies.

Stops for maintenance like that will be routine going forward, but in a far more structured process I understand. It seems recent plants involve other companies like Chesapeake.

On brine disruption as mentioned recently for io3, and was seen at io2, that is down to the drilling boom in play. Oklahoma has the highest cut of water per barrel of oil in the US, as high as 9 to 1. In OK in some circs they can re-use produced water to frac the next well. My assumption is, due to the high water cut, that the contaminants are sufficiently low enough for re-use for neighbouring wells.
The downside is that is disrupts brine flows to the SWD while drilling goes on, but the upside is that with no fresh water use, there is no dilution of iodine content, which would happen with flowback water post drilling.

It is the type of disruption that is unavoidable, whether using fresh or produced water. When the drilling in a particular location is done, then many years of brine flow, in theory, is not disrupted.

Sandridge are big in the area, and they have plans to improve their SWD systems.
In a recent presentation they talk of the water cuts being high and unchanged over the normal average, for OK which continue over the life of the well.

Going forward they want 3 to 6 wells per SWD which is a lower well number per SWD than is the current range.

[makday] 02/3/2014 09:28

Thanks chaps...with all this good news then we are looking at £1.00+ initially and then with further news back and beyond of £2.00+. Correect?

[ansana] 02/3/2014 09:03

Outlook from British Bulls .... Bit excitable! Market Outlook Let's jump on our white horses and go for a bullish ride. The bullish pattern that was previously identified is finally confirmed and a BUY signal is generated. Most probably, it is the right time to participate in bullish fervor. The market is telling you about a new profit. Do not miss this bullish opportunity.

[meadow2] 02/3/2014 08:19

che7win

And, re funding, a water joint venture is a possibility when/if permit is granted which could bring in funds.

[che7win] 01/3/2014 22:07

British bulls buy:

[bobsworth] 01/3/2014 20:22

Many thanks Che7win, Pugugly, Ammons and Superg1 for your replies.

Time to take naphars approach as I have so many spreadsheets trying to workout where Iofina is heading its doing my head in!

[che7win] 01/3/2014 19:32

Crosseyed,
Fair point, I don't see funding a problem, it's a white elephant that derampers have kept churning out.
We can extend, repay, pay back the loan, take out new debt or else Stena can convert.

This is the year with highest capex, next year onwards we start throwing off cash in earnest.

Bobsworth, I am being conservative and going on output of 150 Mt per plant on average, but remember some plants brine supply will be 40,000 Bpd, others could be as low as 17000 Bpd.

Iochem sits on 300-400 ppm, I'm sure there are sites we could develop with that ppm at volume. It's hard to know if management are going to go for the better sites for 7-9, also bigger volume plants. They have the option to do so, maybe they haven't decided yet, after all IO6 was changed late.

Finally, mobile units, 10,000 Bpd possible with possibly higher ppm.

On io#2, I know you haven't asked and I don't want to ramp expectations. Others have pointed out it was doing 800-1100 kgs a day last summer on just over half production.
It could be a 300 to 500 MT plant on its own with the following caveats when comparing to last summer:
1. Is the full production brine supply at the same ppm?
2. Is the temperature of the brine the same?

We just don't know so I use 250MT for it.

There are too many parameters to take into account right now.

Another unknown - remember, we are also evaluating taking control of closed O&G sites. I think that is interesting because the well costs have already been borne by the O&G company. If we go that route, we have no brine disruption, we have no payments to the O&G company so our opex cost reduces maybe to $15...a guess on my part.

The potential is enormous but I take naphars approach now, conservative estimates and hopefully pleasant surprises on the upside.

On the Chemicals division, this year there is 'significant growth' expected from the company.

[naphar] 01/3/2014 18:55

We can calculate til the cows come home, I have done more than my fair share in the past. What we actually need is numbers from the company. At that point we will be able to make more reasoned judgements. Until then, I have given up trying to forecast anything!

[ammons] 01/3/2014 17:32

In this RNS the company, from the first 3 plants, was producing 1 tonne of iodine a day, 365 metric tonnes a year. Not fully optimised.



Lets assume not much from IO1, the prototype, test plant. IO2 at the time underwent "extensive planned maintenance". Most of the 1 tonne per day/365 tonnes per year will have come from IO3. Shall we say half of it?? Around 180 metric tonnes a year? Pure speculation I know. IO3 has had brine supply issues.



Safe to use 365 days a year? Almost certainly not. Reduce the 180 tonnes by 20%? 144 tonnes per year?

[pugugly] 01/3/2014 16:56

It would seem that each large IOsorb plant (excluding IO1) can be expected to produce an average of around 200mt of iodine per annum once optimised. Three plants are currently producing, a further three are planned to complete during the first quarter of 2014 and a further three during the remainder of the year. They also plan to introduce mobile IOsorb units during 2014. This should take Iofina's total annualised production to around 2000mt.



Tuesday, Dec 17 2013 by crazycoops

Based on production history this seems very much on the high side. recent rns suggests more likely to be in the region of 116mt to 166mt so your 150 mt year could be on the high side- Bassed on the update I would suggest a consertive 140 mt per plant p/a might be safer.



"The combined annual production rate from IO#1 through IO#6 is expected to be in the range 700-1,000 tonnes of crystallized iodine."

[superg1] 01/3/2014 16:53

Bob

I'm still tracking Sirocco.

The ALP was a big money spend and all part of the dream of the expansion. However as mentioned before I believe that type of iodine extraction has been tried and failed before in Chile due to the corrosive nature of the raw products.

Sirocco in the interim plan to use the heap leach process, which is as it sounds. Put the Caliche in a big heap, pour lots of water on it and leach out the iodine.

In the suspension of the ALP, they got rid of 150 staff, they would need such numbers back to start the ALP process again for expansion. I doubt they will do that, and having noted other miming companies are saying they are struggling to find skilled mining staff, I'm sure those staff given their marching orders will have walked into highly paid mining jobs elsewhere.

I'm looking forward to SQM results, which I am expecting to be very negative, but they may mention Algorta and others, and may have something to say in the conference call on the competitor topic.

It seems to me that SQM have made relatively substantial drops in production by closing high cost mines. My guess is, their strategy consists of operational efficiencies to get costs down, to put them in a better position than the others. Maybe even happy to let the price sit where it is, or drop, and watch the higher cost mines self destruct. That's what I would do in their position, knowing that others have chased the boom, and have been caught on the price drop.

[crosseyed] 01/3/2014 16:52

che7win 1 Mar'14 - 14:57 - 16571 of 16573 0 0

Crosseyed,
I was going ask you how you are so sure of that.


Having re-read my earlier posts, I wonder what it is that you think I am so sure of.

In fact I was careful not to indicate certainty about anything, just what seem to me to be likely scenarios. I base my assessment of cash flow on my own model though I noted that other poster's supported the likelihood of adequate cash being available by May 2015 - one of those was, I believe, yourself.

Essentially, I don't think cash flow will be a problem, nor would I expect further funding to be a problem should that turn out not to be the case. But I also stated that to be somewhat speculative on my part, though hardly controversial.

c

[bobsworth] 01/3/2014 16:22

che7win

"Sirocco expects to resume expansion plants in 2015 when prices are rising"

It will be interesting to see what impact Iofina has on Sirocco's 2015 plans. By then Iofina will have 9+ plants in full production and offering further supply to the market. I hope Iofina's productivity puts Sirocco off resuming expansion allowing Iofina to increase its market while protecting the price of Iodine.

As I value your opinion, with further efficiency and optimation what is your view on the average MT output of plants 3 to 9 we could possibly expect. Currently I have this average at 150mt/yr a plant but not sure if Iam being too conservative.

[pugugly] 01/3/2014 15:46

che7win:> Yes you are right 275p (not $) slipped through proof reading - Thanks. Now corrcted.

[che7win] 01/3/2014 14:57

Crosseyed,
I was going ask you how you are so sure of that.

Pug, the iodine price governs how much cash we through off.

As you know from the note, they assume the iodine price at $45 over the nest few years and say that is 'conservative'.
I have heard iodine will be a good 50% higher than that in 18 months. It's one view, I'm sure there are others.

I think that iodine prices have bottomed give or take a few dollars and the low price was reached in December, remember that deliveries last month would have been negotiated in December or so.

Sirocco expects to resume expansion plants in 2015 when prices are rising.

I have said it before, if we assume $20 dollars gross profit on raw iodine, then a $5 increase add 25% to gp, $10 adds 50% and so on.

So the iodine price is important, no one really know where we will be 12 months time.

I think you mean GMP values IOF at 275p if iodine price moves to $60 kg.

I believe we can extract more out of the existing business through efficiency and optimisation and we haven't seen the full potential.

Personally, I am happy to value IOF at their 160p target right now on $45kg iodine price, which is a P/E of ~15 on their forecast EPS of ~11p next year.

Water if we get it builds on the 160p level.

[meadow2] 01/3/2014 14:33

PUGUGLY

I thought that cyberbub and crosseyed were being perfectly gentlemanly, just airing a particular view. If Iofina continues to make good progress, then all will be well. If not ........!

[cyberbub] 01/3/2014 14:22

Crosseyed, when I said "better terms" I meant possibly a lower interest rate, but it could also be a longer term say... or most importantly, a loan which doesn't cause dilution!! Why wouldn't a conventional bank give the company a GBP10M loan over 5 years at 6pc say, if they could see the company had turned a corner and was generating enough profit to pay it off?Although to be fair, GBP10M converted at 2 quid a share is only 5M shares, so even if Stena do convert it will hardly be an enormous dilution... just 4%... and most of us here would be very happy in a way because it would mean we were over 2 quid!! :-)Personally for those reasons I don't think the convertible loan is any significant issue...

[pugugly] 01/3/2014 14:07

Gentlemen - Gentlemen and possibly ladies ( I will be polite and use this form of address as despite the slagging off on this and the other thread I believe, (I am assuming most of us want to make serious dosh) we need to raise above the farce of Parliamentary Question time (similar to feeding time at the monkey house !)

For starters - How about a serious analysis of the recent GMP research note where they have well covered the risks with a range of valuations from 83p (assuming iodine at $35 kg to a high side of 275p with Iodine at $60kg.

Various mid point targets are also given subject to speed of rollout, construction of prillng plant etc.

I suspect most the bulls will naturally go for the high target and we can expect waves of optimism from you. The bears "quoting management performance etc would tend towards the low price as for you nothing really left for them to go for. .

So can we have some realistic analysis - Over to you all.

[crosseyed] 01/3/2014 13:44

Meadow2,

That is a moot point. If they are in a position where they need to extend the loan, then maybe their cash generation would be less than stellar which would mean that perhaps they would not be in the best bargaining position.

As I said, I believe that they will be generating cash such as to be able to fully repay the bond should Stena demand it, though more likely in that case Stena would convert to shares with no impact on cash.

Of course, that is somewhat speculative without some firm production and revenue figures, hopefully before the Annual Report is issued (May ?).

c