Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[meadow2] 01/3/2014 13:25

crosseyed

Presumably, if Iofina is generating the sort of cash we all hope they will be in 2015, they will have the power to borrow on lower terms than now.

[crosseyed] 01/3/2014 13:12

cyberbub,

Re the terms of the Stena Convertible Bond for $15 million, it has a coupon of 6.5% pa payable quarterly in arrears (which I calculate to be $244,000 per quarter). The bond may then be optionally converted to shares at $3.21 (£2.06) per share in May 2015. My own forecasts, and those of much more respected posters on this thread, indicate that sufficient cash should be available to comfortably redeem the bond in cash should Stena make that call. But that is a pessimistic scenario. Either the bond will likely be converted (if the share price exceeds 206pps) or it will be extended.

What intrigues me is why you think that the loan could be renegotiated on better terms. The interest rate of 6.5% pa seems very modest for an AIM company.
EME Empyrean, for instance, with a term loan facility from Macquarie to support the development of their very secure, performing assets as part of a JVP operated by Marathon within the Eagleford Shale area of Texas, are paying Macq LIBOR+9% (or about 10%pa). I would expect IOF to continue to be supported by Stena (and I believe their are board links between the companies).

c

[sandbag] 01/3/2014 11:50

On the subject of finance here's a quote from Michael Walters in his book "How to make a killing in penny shares":
"If the likes of the Prudential Assurance, Hermes (The British Telecom and Post Office pension funds)Legal & General, or unit trust group M&G are there take heart. They do not like backing losers.................Above all they will make sure there is sufficient finance at the right time."
As far as I'm aware Hermes are still a major investor in IOF.

[meadow2] 01/3/2014 11:06

cyberbub - point taken and I presume that Stena, when giving the loan and knowing IOF well, must think (or have thought) that IOF would quite possibly be worth more than £2 a share by the time of conversion in May/June 2015.
Let's hope so!

[superg1] 01/3/2014 10:40

Johnc

I'm only a relatively new investor compared to most, and only started looking in 2009, with no interest whatsoever prior.

I created a long list of shares with good looking prospects, having dug through many, all on the AIM.

Just picking on two of them they have been going for over 14 years, and still PI's speak highly of them as good investments, I keep them on my watch list.

One is currently at a price over 100 times less than it's peak, the other 8 times less than it's peak, but they have buoyant BB's about the prospects. Neither in that time have produced more than pocket money revenue and years of losses. One has half the current MC of IOF and the product all these years on is still not proven.


IOF is now is year 6, and they say businesses don't make any money for the first 5 years. In that time, they tried to make a go of WET tech but had issues, then the Atlantis acquisition with 50ppm and 70% yields with gas to offset costs, but then gas prices fell off a cliff. In March 2011 I was nagged to look at them and after about 6 months of hard research and looking at the market it looked good.

In the 3 years since I first looked they have transformed the business, the reason being almost entirely down to a guy called Lance Baller, an unknown CEO at the time.

Had he not fallen ill I have a feeling we would be further on by now, but the business is still moving along growing at a pace that most of my watch list, put together, have not achieved in 3 times the time IOF have had.

Meanwhile the actual iodine major producers are falling apart re rising costs.

So in 5 years where do I think my watch list will be, not much further on I suspect, with the odd one breaking cover with maybe some good gains and revenues.

Where will IOF be in 5 years??

The trolls you mention would have us believe IOF are doomed, re cash and funding. So why have companies that have achieved nothing for near 15 years, and missed every promise for 15 years, still getting funding and interest when placings arrive. It's just hot air trying to scare investors as you know.


It's been a rough ride but that is the nature of high fliers on the AIM, gangs will target such shares. It is far easier scaring people into sells than encourage buying. Then once the chaos is in play the traders help the cause, often being closed out up and down, along with those heavily geared longer term.

The trolls can only target the good prospects and they do it to all of them without fail. The fact is most AIM good prospects will fail. It matters not if they get it wrong a few times as most times it will be right.


IOF will be one that will break free of the AIM failure tag, it has too many good prospects and such great advantages in it's business sector to fail.

What it needs is a regroup on the direction side and someone to drive it forward. The new team have only been around about 8 months. A bit of a poor start, but somehow in the year it's stumbled and fallen along from no plants, in H1 12 to 6 by the time we exit H2 14. It could have been more, but then if they were like my watch list, they will still be talking about the fantastic tech they have and the prospects, with not one plant in place, still buying iodine from Chile, with a share price probably higher than now based on the prospects.

So looking at my 50 plus watch list of what look like great prospects, having reviewed many 100's of shares, none of them have anywhere near achieved what IOF have done. Nearly all of them don't have anywhere near the revenue prospects either, with some with a much higher market cap. It's all nuts, and I can see why the AIM is avoided by most.

Here's hoping IOF is still in the 75p range on plant 15 to 20, and potential water revenues, but I doubt it.

One very little company is making profit, on revenues far higher than companies with 20 times it's MC, and it looks like it has good prospects and could see revenues fly if the market likes it's products. Early days, but as said the AIM seems nuts.

[cyberbub] 01/3/2014 10:33

Yes, but it could easily be rolled onto another more traditional loan on better terms, if the cashflow is ramping up by then... which it should be...

[meadow2] 01/3/2014 10:19

I'm quite happy to see 3 more builds by 2014 year-end and a review of operations showing production, sales and profits steadily increasing over this period. If the water permit brings a bonus, then even better. However, I can't recall any mention of orders for tower components for 7, 8 and 9. Can anyone enlighten me?

There is some concern that the bond borrowing of $15 million is convertible at £2.06 per share. Presumably, if this price is not reached within 18 months or so it will mean repayment of the $15m.

[rogerbridge] 01/3/2014 10:18

The cash position does not concern me too much, as you have said we can slow the roll out. If the water permit is approved there may also be some funds available from a JV, I believe that is the way SG may see it.
The board have share options at about double the price level and they must be livid about the share price manipulation, though they must take the blame for some of that.
I hope they now raring to go and make IOF the dominant force in the sector.

[che7win] 01/3/2014 09:55

Analysis of the RNS:

That plants 2, 3 and 4 are all in the same vicinity as shown in the RNS shows the company is on a land grab, these are easy wins for the company.

Don't forget that we can share employees between plants, we also have reduced opex if IO6 is being built on the existing Io2 site. Can anyone confirm this?

What I want to hear after plant 6 is that we go for the best ppm sites with the highest volume. Isn't the whole reason for FRP towers because we don't have limitation on size, we should be taking advantage of this and building bigger plants, 50,000 plants instead of 2 and 6 for the same source.

The RNS clearly shows that io4 was completed early February as confirmed by Ansana's post.

From the RNS:
"The Group hoped to begin hydro testing at IO#4 earlier in February but was limited by winter storms and cold weather. Operator tie-in was also scheduled to be complete at that time but was delayed due to cold weather in the area." So they were ahead of their revised plans until weather caused the set back.

I leave IO6 as to be completed by end if June, even though the pictures tell that construction is well advanced:


Interesting comment about currently being focused on N. America, I assume that although they have no plans, in future they could licence their technology to other parts of the world, after all their patent is being applied for in Japan and Chile.
2nd August RNS:
"The issued patent was originally filed in the United States and has been also filed in Chile and Japan shortly thereafter."
A throwaway comment, N America is the place to be.

George Lances comment:
"The completion of IO#4 solidifies Iofina's capabilities of constructing and operating multiple plants simultaneously. Production from IO#1-IO#3, shortly to be complemented by IO#4, together with anticipated production from IO5# and IO6#, further advances Iofina as a major player in the iodine market."

They seem awfully keen to stress that they can do multiple builds at the same time...might they want to increase the roll out speed at some stage?

That should set the wind up their competitors, perhaps that's why it's stated.

George comments about IOF as becoming a major player. IOF this year is finally stepping up to the world stage, competitors can no longer ignore us. They will come to realise that there is a source of iodine that IOF has first mover advantage of at a cost that undermines all existing sources in Chile.

There is only so long that the Chile 'cartels' can control the iodine price by throttling back on production and development of new mines. They have to continually fund replenishing of existing sources.
We don't.

[rogerbridge] 01/3/2014 09:31

JCS, a good post and I concur with your thoughts.like many long term holders here, who had a six figure sum invested in IOF, I have seen the value of my shares decrease, but I was never tempted to sell. There has been a great deal of manipulation here, but unfortunately that is the way of the world and how some people make their living. What a sad collection of individuals. Most here would rather create a business or some other enterprise and then look back with pride in what has been achieved.
IOF have started the delivery and when it ones to fruition, the finances of all holders will look far rosier than they are today.
The sun is shining, the birds are singing and I am going out with the wife.

[che7win] 01/3/2014 09:20

Jcs,
It's pretty obvious why they are quiet, they have gone long.
One even mentions a 100p short term figure for the stock on the other thread, not hard to see why they are shutting up, they are playing their game.

I am all for reasoned and knowledgable opinions in the style frog posts, they are welcome and allow me to reassess my view.

The cash situation is something I will look into further but I know we can slow rollout if it's a problem. The loan next year we can rollover or replace if it comes to it.

What I find amazing is how anyone would follow the one/two line deramping posts.

It is water off a ducks back for me, it has allowed me to buy at prices I believe are good value. I just wonder who in a rational mindset would have been selling this week in the low 70s.

When a stock rises in the way it did yesterday, you can be sure that the sellers are on the wane and buyers see value, the selling ran out.

It is plants 4 and onwards which will provide surplus raw iodine for us to sell, I agree with others that this quarter will not show the potential. 110mt baseline would be my view until we hear io3 is up to speed.

[ansana] 01/3/2014 08:56

MasurenguyWhy not ask him old he is and his inside leg measurement? !

[masurenguy] 01/3/2014 08:19

JCS - some interesting views. If you don't mind me asking, how many shares do you own in IOF ?

[orslega] 01/3/2014 07:58

jcs - good summary - and yes, when a share price becomes frothy, and no doubt about IOF did, these doom and gloom types arrive and cause mischief. Hopefully after today's RNS their paymasters will move them onto the next frothy AIM share....of course with new avatars, so beware.

Have been adding bundles at these recent lows...imo a no brainer, dyor. Fantastic investment opportunity still remains, hopefully for not too long!

[johncsimpson] 28/2/2014 23:48

Now would I do that naphar?

Have a good weekend all.

[yorkshiret] 28/2/2014 23:43

JCS, they're probably all banged up at the moment

[naphar] 28/2/2014 23:39

No worries, I was actually hoping you might tell me in no uncertain terms that I had missed something...

[johncsimpson] 28/2/2014 23:20

naphar - In a post of such length I had a number of other posts open in an effort not to make any mistakes and was trying not to use my memory.

But I could have that wrong and will happily stand corrected.

In fact, now I think about it - you're right; so sorry. Please take this as a correction.

[naphar] 28/2/2014 23:14

Jcs
I am all for a bit of bullishness after the recent negativity, and we have some good reason to be happier with today's RNS.

But, where does this come from... "io6 news by next month (April)"?

The RNS today stated Q2. Until IOF tell me otherwise, I will keep my expectations Jan check and assume Q2 could mean end of June. Seems like it should be earlier to me, based on pictures, but been caught out too many times before by such comments.

[warmsun] 28/2/2014 23:12

Good post john..and nice to see an 'up' day....and Ansana
28 Feb'14 - 16:24 - 16522 of 16546
" at last someone read one of my posts! "..... I always read all your posts with great interest... :)
Good weekend to all holders.

[johncsimpson] 28/2/2014 22:57

Today's RNS

Those of you who visit this / these Iofina thread(s) regularly, fleetingly or otherwise and have witnessed the on-line exchanges between a number of us with the avatars of those such as N3tleyLucas, SHONNY, jonnybig (or as I preferred to call him – jonny liar), maca1212, thebutler, Jackabite, Major Dome, brhukatee and a number of other avatars, might like to reflect on the fact that those of us who took on the 'challenges' of the above (some over recent months, some over many months) are still here whilst all of a sudden not one post from any of them.

If you take nothing else from this post then at least note those words – 'not one post from any of them'.

Tells you something about what their intentions have been doesn't it? Their game is probably over.

What some of them posted was often put together with a degree of professionalism and knowledge (we can only guess where they got it from), but mostly with the intention of discrediting some of the long term posters here –sg1 being the prime recipient and the one who has been targeted the most. Some, IMHO, have been paid lackeys, some traders / shorters who rode the wave and their luck. Others are just internet trolls some with multi-avatars who get off on trying to destroy anything of worth, be it here or elsewhere. Those of you who were fooled by their ramblings, those who have sold and lost money, those of you who were angry at superg1 et al should now be able to see through their intentions and perhaps re-apportion the blame for your miss-fortune.

And although I realise that some of you will think I'm being overly bullish and a bit premature on a one day, 7% rise; that has always been my way here. Those who remember my posts of mid-December will have a fair idea of my paper loses at the time - and I'm still down a small fortune on those purchases, but a line was drawn in the sand with today's RNS followed by the un-heralded, updated photographs on the Iofina website that show the progress of io4 & 5; plus the first pictures of the io6 build.

Make no mistake, an RNS re io5 should be here in short order though it's not actually necessary; then io6 news by next month (April). The water permit may or may not be granted without further 'clarification' but ramp or de-ramp that how you want this Company is now on a roll.

Ennismore, love them or loath them, have had a mixture of shrewd business moves and quite a lot of luck. 'The boys done well' you might say, but they now find themselves in a bit of a quandary with 1.6m shares to buy back and a rising price which they themselves will fuel further. In addition to Ennismore's position, there are about 1.5m retail shorts open.

There have already been a number of press releases today and there will probably be other 'you heard it here first' articles in the mainstream press over the weekend and next few days. The reality is that the coming weeks ought to see the share price move north.

One final thing for now, shares never move in a straight line and the shorting fraternity will no doubt return at some future date, probably with new or sleeper avatars. But for now we should have some peace from the likes of jonnybig etc. whose Iofina / Futura crossover bet went out the window some weeks ago – and we haven't heard from him since. So watch out for them.

[uppompeii] 28/2/2014 22:55

Or a little too much helium...

[rogerbridge] 28/2/2014 22:40

I have just been on the IOF website and was pleasantly surprised at the progress made.
Sometimes you do not realise the sophistication and technical expertise that is required to build, operate and produce very high quality produt. We do have a patented system and should be able to look forward to increasing production and profitability..
IOF is a vertically integrated company and the profitable chemical side can increase ifs offering and develop new products.
Water, not priced in should not be too far away, I would mention oil etc, but that would mean that I have had a little too much red wine this evening.

Cheers everyone.