Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[meadow2] 14/1/2014 15:02

Very interested to see what the new advisors think the market price should be and how soon a circular will be published. Any forecasts?

[uppompeii] 14/1/2014 15:00

Why shorters? Other shares are flying, the markets are strong. Likely just people seeking opportunity elsewhere.

[woodpeckers] 14/1/2014 14:50

So can we presume this is a last ditch attempt by the shorters to get it down before the presentations and water meeting?

[roboben] 14/1/2014 14:48

Yes, they turned me down, too. Got some at IG, though!

[dorset64] 14/1/2014 13:47

I note that City Index are still only taking closures but not allowing any new longs at present.

[shonny] 14/1/2014 13:45

Heading back to the eighties here. I wouldn't like to be holding this when the water permit gets refused.

[superg1] 14/1/2014 10:48

Some great posts Bocker, I'll look forward to the next ons should you still be in IOF.

Just on expected prices, H1 14 could be an interesting period. It's this period during which the supply/demand level should sort itself out in relation to the changes by SQM and Sirocco.

The true circs re Cosayach, Algorta and ACF are unknown. 2012 through to early 2013, saw big ideas and plans being claimed by all the Chile producers. During that period SQM also claimed intended production increases.

We have to remember that those guys are not working with personal interests in mind, it's also all about keeping competitors in the dark. Algorta certainly went 1-0 up on SQM, as SQM quoted them as a reason for pulling back on plans, although in that conference call they said that Algorta hadn't increased production that much. With unknowns about what the others are doing.

So in H1 as mentioned before steady prices at these levels or a drop would really have some of the Chileans on the back foot.

They have little room left on margins for a drop, and some like SCM Bullmine may well be under water already.

Take Algorta on that $10m for H1 on higher prices than now. They claimed a 3000mt target for 2013, but H1 figures didn't support that. However if they did hit 3000mt and the price v H1 2012 is $5 lower, then that's $15m revenue gone from the profits.

Imagine a price of $35 per kg. It would be unsustainable for most of the Chile producers and they more or less control the market price.

If IOF can become material producers, then with their forecast opex, it would just show how strong they could become.

Can IOF sell iodine ???

Well if they have the volumes then of course they can, as buyers will want the cheapest they can get.

Long term a steady price or lower for H1/2014, assuming IOF get the wheels in motion could have some long term benefits.

YOY for the last 13 years Chile power prices have risen 11% each year. I'll look up wages and the other parts, but they will have risen significantly too.

[bocker01] 14/1/2014 09:09

Hi Engelo, My comments merely summarise or combine imformation available from existing published sources. As a passing comment, you may find it worthwhile taking another look at posts 14247 and 13373. However, that's my posting done for the next month or two! Hope this clarifies! All the best...

[naphar] 14/1/2014 06:26

Thanks engelo, finger must have slipped!

[engelo] 14/1/2014 00:42

bocker: just had another look at 14566: could you say whether points 5 and 6 are based on contact with the company? tia

[engelo] 14/1/2014 00:34

Bocker: another good post: thanks.

(Naphar: your ref to Bocker's earlier post should be 14566.)

[rogerbridge] 13/1/2014 22:59

Bobsworth Nice to know that the weather is pretty good for this time of year. I was wondering if there was any snow out there.

[superg1] 13/1/2014 22:15

That's a bit better than the deep snow, and buildings collapsing under the weight of it this time last year.

[bobsworth] 13/1/2014 17:54

No stopping Iofina weather wise on the completion of IOF#4 & 5 !!

Oklahoma City, OK, USA

Mon 13th Jan 2014: Sunny 16°C | °F

Precipitation: 0% Humidity: 30% Wind: 19 mph

[bobsworth] 13/1/2014 17:50

Cheers Bocker and all the best to you too.

[naphar] 13/1/2014 16:24

Bocker,
Re 14566 and 14567

If the company can give us news over the next few months which confirms the points you are making, I will be very happy.

I suspect many of your points are correct, which is why i remain invested, but I await official confirmation.

Initial coverage by the joint brokers will suffice as an interim measure. It would be good to see their understanding of the company and its prospects.

[bocker01] 13/1/2014 14:48

Hi Bobsworth, ROS is "return on sales" the term means profit expressed as a percentage of sales revenue. In my posts, I used profit before tax because I am not clear what IOF's tax losses and capital expenditure allowances are likely to amount to. Most businesses are happy with an ROS, on this basis, of 5% or 6%, especially bulk chemical companies.

IOC, the IOF chemicals business, is in an enviable situation where derivitive selling prices appear to have been averaging USD75 +/- per kilo and to be largely set on a cost plus basis based on iodine prices of USD45 to USD55 per kilo. The iodine prices are heavily influenced by miners whose costs can be as high as USD40 to USD48 and who are loss making (hence the capacity reductions/ mine closures/ extended closedowns/ etc and desire to restrict supply to force the selling price up).

IOF were buying the iodine in at typically USD50 per kilo. Now they are making it at USD20. THe impact is an extra USD30 profit on USD75 of selling price.

Hence IOC rockets from a breakeven situation to 40% ROS. Hope this helps....it also makes the chemicals business which has plenty of surplus capacity very attractive in its own right and as a knock on, will draw attention to the Iofina Resources (IOR) bulk raw iodine business in the chemical processing world not just the iodine mining world.

As a side issue, the miners are playing into IOR's hands by restricting supply just as IOR seeks to enter the market.

All the best and hope this helps

Bocker

[bobsworth] 13/1/2014 13:54

bocker1 Thanks for the excellent post.
Just one question!

What does ROS stand for? TIA

[superg1] 13/1/2014 13:54

Pigeon

Interesting comment re stena ...

Lets see what pops up.

[nixonpaul] 13/1/2014 13:40

Yawn,

Sorry but that didn't answer the questions puppet

[nixonpaul] 13/1/2014 13:07

That could be applied to most of what you write.

So why don't you just go away if you dislike it so much? or will you miss the few pennies you earn as a puppet?

[engelo] 13/1/2014 12:38

pigeon: if numis and co were pushing for a kitchen sink they certainly got one :-)

re sales it's been suggested that potential customers need evidence of good stock/inventory before committing. Sounds good sense, if only the RNS had said that :-) The way it was phrased read like they'd been forced into an inventory position.

[n3tleylucas] 13/1/2014 12:00

"wondering if they will look to renegotiate terms of Stena loan"

You mean move the goalposts? Yeah, why not, everything else has been a crock of sheet... might as well fiddle that too.