Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 10/1/2014 12:08

Interesting post superg,
Sirocco's inventory will be depleted this year, I would agree that the iodine market should stabilise and probably rise some time in 2014.
If you look at the 3 producers in the US, most of them are suppliers to only a few customers, one was a supplier to a distributor.
The indmin articles December have indicated raw iodine prices have been stable since September at the 45-55 kg level so I assume the 50 kg median range.
We should be able to sell iodine at around the $45kg or more; the US market has demand for over 6000 MT per year.
The US is only 27% self - sufficient from memory, so they import most of what they need.
We only need external sales of around 300 - 600 MT this year, it's looking a very exciting year for IOF ahead.

[diggulden] 10/1/2014 10:57

Might have been these guys:

They state they represent Algorta and ACF Minera. They supply both Iodine and Iodine derivatives.

[phoenixs] 10/1/2014 10:49

superg. Thanks for your diligence.Always appreciated. Yet another very informative post about the state of the iodine market on the supply side. As you state, h2 2014 could be very interesting as it appears that the various large economies are beginning to expand faster than at first thought.

[phsycho] 10/1/2014 10:46

thanks dig, more curious than anything else.

[diggulden] 10/1/2014 10:45

SG

'sweater pipelines'

I'm intrigued by this concept.

[superg1] 10/1/2014 10:24

yes Che

It rather contradicts the perception of some for the iodine market for this year. We'll have to wait for the H2 figures.

For your info as stated in the last post, I understand the authors have commented that the company comment re plans are incorrect.

Beyond their control as the Chile sector suddenly changed tack.

With inventories in play the result of reduced production in late 2013 won't kick in on the supply/demand market just yet.

By my calcs SQM have dumped 2000mt plus by closing those mines and losing 400 staff.

Sirocco were due to do 1200 for 2013, but withdrew from the supply side H2. So the chances are near 3000mt has gone for this year, and I can't see right now who will fill that gap.

If the figures are right then prices should surely rise in 2014.

Let's not forget us guys here were talking sweater pipelines for all, before the companies mentioned it.

Now everyone from SQM to Bullmine has talked seawater.

In fact SQM IR got very defensive re that when asked questions, but slipped in a line just days later in a 271 page report. A handful of words about a pacific pipeline.

Now it's rather more apparent. I'm sure the actions by SQM, Sirocco and others over the last couple of months will tighten the market. That will be their plan of course as they want and need higher prices.

[diggulden] 10/1/2014 10:18

I'm sure I came across a large chemical company in Belgium that manufacturers a lot of Iodine based derivatives, I remember emailing them asking who they purchased the Iodine from, they wouldn't tell me! ;)
Will see if I can dig out who it was.

[phsycho] 10/1/2014 10:11

Thanks for 14486 SG, any clue as to what is going on in Belgium to put them second on ze list...

[che7win] 10/1/2014 09:57

Superg,
I've read that same report, I was interested that Belgium is the second biggest market for iodine!

[superg1] 10/1/2014 09:52

I'm having a little smile to myself here over a recent report that has immediately been admitted is wrong in relation to the iodine market in Chile.

Unfortunately for those completing it, they finished just before the Chile meltdown.

So it has things in it like, SQM to expand, Cosayach to expand, Sirocco to expand and so on.

As posted here, SQM have closed mines, and out expansion on hold, Sirocco have suspended operations and Cosayach withdrew their expansion application.

I thought the below may be of interest to investors here-:

H1 2013 export/import figures v H 1 2012.

Exports from the main 3 producing countries, total exports 14,270mt

Main importers in order of size, total imports 14,951mt

US
Belgium
China
India
Norway
Germany
Italy

Interestingly, but we know why Japan exports are in decline, and have been for the last 4 years. Total down since 2010 for the H1 periods 667mt 2010 v 2013.

The report mentions the possible impact of Sirocco and the other Chile guys expanding.

I suppose customers use such forecasts in determining how much they are prepared to pay under contract.

Well the facts are that the report was scuppered by the sudden change in Chile actions and sentiment just weeks after it was available.

That's why I do my own research. The import/export data is handy though.

Oh and by the way, I understand the author of the report has been spoken to, and admits much of the expansion data, and Chile company comments, are now out of date due to the sudden change.

Us guys have never believed the Chile producer BS, they were bluffing each other, the figures of increased capex/production and potential price drop made it an obvious bluff for SQM.

For every 1000mt SQM add, if the price dropped $5 per kg, it nullified the production gain and wiped out the capex involved.

1000mt gain $50m at $50 per kg. 10,000 mt $5 drop $50 mill revenue lost, capex wasted. (basic point but you get the drift)

That's exactly what has happened, the Chileans over-cooked it and shot themselves in the foot re revenue.

late 2012 to early 2013 saw some strong prices.

If Algorta only made $10m from an apparent 1000 to 1500 mt from their data in H1. Then they are really going to be hit for H2.

H1 was $55 to $65. so on 1000mt if taking the lower $55 per kg, their opex was $45 per kg


It hard it know what is going on with Algorta but they claim they could do 3000mt this year, but the figures out there don't support that.

This current price must be killing them, just like it is for SQM, Sirocco, Bullmine and Cosayach.

I understand Bullmine have the highest opex, so I will not be surprised right now if their production costs exceed the current price. I think they will fold.

[dcgray21] 10/1/2014 09:45

che7win

I would agree with your sentiments . The last few weeks have been a bitter reality check on the fickleness of the AIM market as I have big holdings in IOF and QFI . However we shouldnt loose sight that during the bear raid , IOF hit circa 114p and bounced back to over 200p pretty quickly with no particular new news flow from recollection .

Given we have a more realistic delivery plan and fingers X'd re momentum around the water issue then positive news on these in the forthcoming months should see a swift change in sentiment esp. given the well documented issues with Chilean iodine providers as SG's research highlights.

[che7win] 10/1/2014 09:22

Current yeat P/E 10, looking forward to when the market catches onto the growth here.

Looking at some other stocks, e.g. SNTY, QFI, CRAW, it's clear that we are in a very bullish market that is looking for any sniff of growth.

IF IOF do continue their growth and plant roll out, the market might surprise us how quickly these turn around.

I may be underestimating how quickly we rerate as it seems the market is very forgiving.

I forget what Amazon trades on right now, I think it is around a P/E of 1400!

Think I'd rather be here...the market has misspriced to the downside IMHO.

[sandbag] 10/1/2014 08:37

Or post 14262 on here!

[festario] 10/1/2014 00:11

Bobsworth, methinks you have been on the QFI thread tonight, to get that post of yours.

[superg1] 09/1/2014 23:59

I always loved that far side card.

Titanic staff pointing and shouting 'Icebeeerrrrrrrg'.

On the iceberg a penguin with mates behind, pointing and shouting 'Shiiiipppppp'

The iceberg had floated quite some way of course, there being no penguins at the north pole.

There is a story in there somewhere.

[superg1] 09/1/2014 23:17

Opti


'Anyone know what effect the cold weather is the US has had?'

Oklahoma city forecast this weekend 59 to 65F, with sun cream needed by the look of it.

[shonny] 09/1/2014 23:16

Back to £1 tomorrow I reckon. I hope no one is expecting £2 by xmas.

[bobsworth] 09/1/2014 21:34

A LESSON ON THE ROLL OF A BASHER

1: BASHERS NEVER BASH A BAD STOCK!!!!
2: BASHERS ARE HERE BECAUSE THEY KNOW THE COMPANY HAS POTENTIAL
3: BASHERS ALWAYS BRING UP OLD NEWS AND REPEAT AND TWIST IT TO THEIR ADVANTAGE.
4: BASHERS POST MANY TIMES A DAY TO WEAR YOU DOWN.
5:BASHERS WILL HIDE BEHIND NUMEROUS ALIAS NAMES & LIE TO YOUR FACE.
6: BASHERS KNOW YOU CAN'T VERIFY THEIR STATEMENTS.
7: THE BASHERS PLAY ON YOUR LACK OF NEW INVESTORS KNOWLEDGE AND PATIENCE.
8: BASHERS RELY ON YOU BEING TIRED OF WAITING FOR YOUR GAIN.
9. BASHERS ARE HERE TO CAST DOUBT + FEAR & PREY ON UR LAZINESS TO RESEARCH
10: BASHERS AIM IS TO GET YOU TO SELL & BRING THE PRICE DOWN.
11. BASHERS ARE HERE BECAUSE THEY ARE SHORT AND OR WANT TO BUY IN CHEAPER

ADVICE: NEVER REPLY TO THEM & IGNORE THEM BY USING THE FILTER BUTTON

[n3tleylucas] 09/1/2014 20:49

shhhhhhhhhhh

[optifog] 09/1/2014 20:46

Anyone know what effect the cold weather is the US has had?

[superg1] 09/1/2014 20:29

Codelco and Antofagasta, among others, have reported rising labour, energy and water costs forcing the companies to increase pre-production expenditure estimates on mine projects. These factors, in addition to falling prices, are leading some firms to question investment and expansion, which presents a downside risk to our forecasts.

[alfie4048] 09/1/2014 18:03

Interesting final trade of the day,31983 shares at 107.22p.

[n3tleylucas] 09/1/2014 17:42

I'm a top boy... you'll need 6

[n3tleylucas] 09/1/2014 17:41

That's correct.