Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[ansana] 17/12/2013 09:28

Good post Scrutable, thanks for the realistic projected figures. We should be buying not selling, well CK just did, absolutely agree don't let the facts get in the way.

[nevmyers] 17/12/2013 09:28

First time I looked at the forum this morning been busy moving money into my share account and buying some more, really pleased now I managed to get some for 97 my average is now down by 30 pence and the RNS was ok considering its December anyway. Knowing these have been shorted is also good because they have to buy them back at some point. All looking good for next year. price now just below 104

GLA

[stupidboypike] 17/12/2013 09:26

sorry for all holders, but glad I was on the sidelines here. May buy at some point but never catch a falling knife and all that.

Best regards SBP

[uriney] 17/12/2013 09:25

Trolley in play!

Uriney

[scrutable] 17/12/2013 09:21

I see that iofra has already put it succinctly in post 12981:

"This is a timing effect. Our longer-term forecasts are broadly unchanged, as is our NAV-derived 230p target price"

I will put it even more succinctly.

IT'S A POSTPONEMENT NOT A SLOW DOWN.
FUTURE VALUE IS UNIMPAIRED

[captain_kurt] 17/12/2013 09:18

Great entry price as we move into a busy Q1 2014 of plants coming online and maybe even water permit progress.
Couldn't resist another topup

[jointer13] 17/12/2013 09:16

agree sandbag...we are vulnerable.

[sandbag] 17/12/2013 09:13

If any competitor is thinking of making an offer now is the time.

[scrutable] 17/12/2013 09:08

PIs are in danger of over reacting in the face of today's acute disappointment and scaling back of expectations. But there is not much down grading to future profitability. Just an APPARENT lengthening of time frames by six months.

In reality that has happened already. We are today surely nine months behind, so THE DELIVERY AND COMMISSIONING OF THE SIX PLANTS IO#4/5/6/7/8/9 WILL NOT BE ANY SLOWER THAN PREDICTED A YEAR AGO. I repeat not slower just later - starting later because of the single decision to relocate from Texas to Oklahoma.

The management has confirmed that although they cannot catch up on what has been postponed for good reasons of greater profitability, they are keeping to the same rate of roll out from now on.

to sum up we have a lot less output than was expected and time slippage everywhere one looks - but a credible rate of 700 - 1000mT by end Q1 and at least 50% higher from IO#7/8/9 from the rest of 2014. That points to an exit rate of 1,050 - 1500mT by end 2014. To add 1-200mT from a few mobile plants seems reasonable.

So a total 1,150 -1700mT at the lower current market price for iodine of $40,000/mT and we have a rate for revenue flow by end 2014 of $46-68,000,000.pa = £27-41,000,000/pa ...... less 25% opex = £20-£30m/pa profit run rate in 12 months time PLUS a small profit from IOF-C.

That justifies a lot more than the current share price collapse and points IMO credibly to a cap value of £300m - £450m ie a share price of £2.40 - £3.60 later in the year once confidence has been restored by actual forecasts being confirmed by facts.

The panic of today's share price collapse is understandable but not justified. PIs have not had time this am to think it through and have thrown away value out of sheer terror

[ansana] 17/12/2013 09:08

Pleased to see that the insti's alone aren't the only ones picking up the cheap shares.

[richi_rich13] 17/12/2013 09:07

If we were progressing, optimisation would have taken a freak day high of 1000kg with io1 and 2. To a consistent production of a figure approaching 1000kg. That is what optimization is. With the addition of IO3 (even pre optimisation) that figure should be much higher (imo, approaching 1250kg).

I dont disagree there is clearly room for improvements but they have been optimising for 6 months now. I expected better especially with an additional plant (which should add at least 4-500kg/day)

It could be that iof are hiding numbers and really production is 1200kg a day. If that is the case they have cost me and many others alot of money.

Prob worth pointing out i am a holder, and despite my better judgement, am still a holder. I think this is way over done and there is good news in the RNS such as sites primed for the arrival of towers within 2 weeks and io6 construction beginning.

[investmentguru] 17/12/2013 09:06

This does seem to be a colossal overreaction. Everything is proceeding nicely, minor delays are irrelevant in the whole scheme of things. Managed to pick up a few more at 98p earlier.

[illtud] 17/12/2013 09:06

Win some lose some. I only took a small punt so I'll weather it but what started as a quick in and out now looks like a long term hold.

illtud

[tackems] 17/12/2013 09:02

I am not too worried and think this may be 'under promise and over deliver' as has already been said. Buying oportunity I feel. I am in for the long haul anyway...

[shonny] 17/12/2013 08:59

I apologise for being a bit out in my prediction. I wasn't expecting £1 until next week. Would the rampers also like to apologise to the many they have misled.

[ansana] 17/12/2013 08:59

While there is the usual panic over here Iofina will continue to build plant and produce iodine State side. They haven't met our expectation and since Lance left their own. It will take longer thats all. The share price has crashed like the Chileans but who is best placed to rise from the ashes? Its significant that the softening of prices and their competitors were mentioned in the rns. Investec a week or so ago came out and said how this situation favoured IOF.

[jasisdad] 17/12/2013 08:58

Last throw of the dice. Bought back again. At least me average is now looking better.

[iofra] 17/12/2013 08:55

Yes credit to you N3tley. However, all a matter of timing should still come good in the long run IMHO

[square1] 17/12/2013 08:50

What next? Well I'll go for some Director buying and a partial close of Ennismore short. Well played to Ennismore and bears. Thnk 2014 will have a better outlook for bulls but never know what short term/margin pressure moves will do to price

[n3tleylucas] 17/12/2013 08:49

I asked a question after the 'water' news, 'why did this only bounce to 124?' I asked 'was there something else brewing?' Today has answered that question.

I'll leave you in peace now.

[postman_pat] 17/12/2013 08:48

Me too with IOF4 & 5 just weeks away and Ennismore likely to close their short now!

[killerbudgie] 17/12/2013 08:48

Well I bought some when it was dead catting yesterday to dilute. Should have seen the cat. Not so much a slap on the wrist but a kick in the goolies. Still, if I had more cash spare I would buy more.