Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[judgemeister] 15/11/2013 14:32

Dont know how well followed these guys are but could account for upturn of interest here today.

hxxp://www.trendsandtargets.com/library.html

[the librarian] 15/11/2013 14:25

Glad you didn't forget the small print warning at the bottom of your post Titus, sometimes it happens to the upside too :-), rare I know, but it does happen. Enjoy reading your posts, they are a breath of fresh air.

[tackems] 15/11/2013 14:22

Thanks JCS, very informative....

[outfly] 15/11/2013 13:18

Really interesting read johncsimpson. Appreciated.

[warmsun] 15/11/2013 13:11

johncsimpson


yes, was nice to see...but then another 25k slapped down at 172p

[titus10] 15/11/2013 13:10

johncsmpson

Interesting post - just seen yours after firing off one of my own on the TA thread.

Bots are just very quick (like millisecond) black boxes. Having built and used a few such trading systems for rather longer time frames some decades ago myself, I'd love to see inside some of the high-tech present-day ones, but can only watch traces of them at play on tick charts when trading and try not to get eaten for lunch.

So possibly one can still profit from analysing price movements beyond their frequencies? Although I day trade when I see opportunities indicated, substantial capital building has resulted in the long haul most successfully from long-term positioning. Could your TA approach simply need a spring clean?

As for that gap, perhaps one shouldn't be too mesmerised by it. The 'noise' in the IOF picture seems about right for it's size and beta (simulated as there's really no market sector to fit it to!) and should you just stick the only two calls I've made on IOF (Intermediate-Term Sell on 24/5/13; IT Buy on 16/8/13) on your daily chart, you may think it not worth losing sleep over.

That said, we who've been around a while accept that anything can happen and often does...

[johncsimpson] 15/11/2013 13:07

warmsun

and the other '6k' soon gone.

[warmsun] 15/11/2013 13:00

For those without L2.

we have 25k tranches sitting at 172, 174,176 and 178.
As I type 19k of the 172 just been bought..and another 25k just put in its place! Big buyers about?

[johncsimpson] 15/11/2013 12:26

Re Ennismore (mostly) . . .

I see the CEO of troubled Globo bought 100,000 shares on Tuesday (adding to his existing +69 million – so absolute peanuts for him). It has done nothing for the GBO share price and little to make Ennismore think twice about their short there (or perhaps they did) because on the same day they further increased it in addition to having added only the day before.

On the other hand, Ennismore on Wednesday reduced their short position for the second day in a row on Premier Foods. So their analysts are busy- busy at the moment.

I wonder if they've discussed IOF recently? There have been several opportunities this past week to buy in below 160, an area (and below) where they added to their short, as recently as September and October – some 350,000 shares in total, so a chance to close these out and possibly 'break even' leaving themselves with a potential profit on the rest of the short of some 1.3m shares. Their problem and dilemma is the minute they start buying in large volume the share price is likely to move against their interests and, of course, would be disclosed to the markets.

Next week, for all sorts of reasons, could be jolly interesting.

I noticed that there was some small debate mid-week, as to whether the share price would fall back towards the 150 area and then this morning, nixonpaul posed the question of IOF 'taking out' the opposition rather than the other way round. We also had the share options RN on Tuesday.

I've used TA for some twenty years and up until about four or five years ago I felt (and it clearly did) give me an advantage. More recently, (the last year or two) I'm beginning to doubt just how much of an advantage I'm now getting. Titus made some astute comments on the Tipster thread about a fortnight ago concerning bots. The last time I got involved here on the subject of gaps was back on 23 June – post 3143. So re the share price filling that gap at 150ish - well gaps don't have to be filled but often are. There is a likelihood that IOF could drop back to this level but with each passing day and with news of IO4 looming, a possible JV, some update on production figures and maybe something positive completely left field, the likelihood recedes. BUT and it's a big but, it is still possible for the price to 'move forward' substantially and still revisit 150. IMO if it does break up past c 185 (a recent stumbling area) a revisit becomes very less probable. Don't forget they have some pretty cold winters in North America in that Canadian border region and delays are possible.

Re the options and takeovers – a canny time to get options done! And don't forget that Gatchell and Lantz have only got a third at the present time. They get a second tranche in a year's time and a third in two year's time. (CF has got all his quota now). That apart, you might wonder in the sense of this arrangement if they were considering being taken over. As for IOF taking out the 'opposition' an interesting idea which falls into the 'Well they could do that couldn't they?' category but if the buyers can get products cheaper from Iofina why not just wait and let them make the moves. Imagine all the problems of integrating other businesses, possibly bringing senior employees on board, compensation packages elsewhere and the all those work forces to sort out – no, too much agro.

Now there's lovely. I started this very late last night and in the time I've messed around putting it together, tidying it up and adding, IOF are up 5% and Globo are down 6%. Which goes to show that Ennismore (re Globo) clearly ain't totally stupid.

[noujay] 15/11/2013 12:21

The sarcasm clearly escaped you bobsworth!

[bobsworth] 15/11/2013 12:19

Noujay 15 Nov'13 - 11:53 - 11079 of 11079 0 0 (Filtered)

SHONNY 15 Nov'13 - 09:20 - 11067 of 11080 1 6 (Filtered)

[noujay] 15/11/2013 11:53

Looks like Shonny is bang on right, we're all in terrible trouble on this one!!

[angel of the north] 15/11/2013 11:43

After dramatic falls in all markets yesterday, the markets are well up today.....seems we are just following the markets. No other reason imo.

[phoenixs] 15/11/2013 11:38

M1das, maybe both.

[sweetnodude] 15/11/2013 11:37

More like somebody has finished selling. Buyers have been there all along.

[m1das_touch] 15/11/2013 11:33

Ok, so suddenly we're 5.5% up on the day and the bid's gone from under 160p to 168p...news due out perhaps, or someone stake-building?

[worraps] 15/11/2013 11:21

Hi, warmsun

Thanks for the cheery info.....it's good to have an optimistic moment or two. Let's hope it lasts!

Good luck to you.....it doesn't get any easier does it?

[warmsun] 15/11/2013 11:18

Hi worraps, hope all is good with you.

phoenix, I don't disagree with you. I don't rely on L2, but it is interesting at times to see what the MMs are 'seemingly' up to. Moving up nicely now (at last) and PEEL no longer on the Bid.

[phoenixs] 15/11/2013 11:08

warmsun. I have, over the years, learnt to only believe what is in my bank account and not what I read from mm's l2 etc. ....but let's hope you're correct.

[worraps] 15/11/2013 10:58

Thanks, warmsun. Let's hope so!

[warmsun] 15/11/2013 10:50

PEEL now sitting on the Bid...are they wanting some stock...?

[superg1] 15/11/2013 09:38

I'm going to have a detailed look at Sirocco but just spotted some basics-:

2010 report.

1500mt to be achieved in 2011 with confidence (didn't happen and they may get there this year)

The interesting part is the 'new' Agitating leach plant, to take things forward, and that screening kit has the pebbles to the target size,

'performing according to it's design'.

In all years since they talk of problems with the ALP and wear, due to pebbles being too large, causing significant wear on the ALP.

So now they are to spend $15m on a mill to get the pebbles to the target size.

??????? Thought they did that in 2010. It just adds fuel to the fire that it is corrosion as suggested by the previous CEO of the company.


'These include a calculated 260 ppm cutoff grade based on current and estimated costs going forward as well as assuming $28 per kg iodine price.'


March 11 to Jun 12 (15 months), opex went from $23 per kg to $37 which is roughly where they are now, but the last Q was $41 (lower production than expected).

It's a snapshot of how quickly things changed in Chile.

Once I get to have a good look, on the various hurdles, capex and problems. I'm guessing it will paint a very poor picture of an attempt for a newbie to produce iodine in Chile.

This is not a unique position. Algorta Norte had the same plans and big ideas around the same time. They are way behind where they wanted to be, capex and opex soared.

The position of Chile being the only place that large scale iodine production can be achieved, is in the process of being re-written.

Japan will slowly slip off the map in the coming years, Chile problems are going to get worse, and the US looks like it's going to be world leader at some point.

It's simple maths.

[shonny] 15/11/2013 09:20

£2 by Xmas looking like a no hoper for the rampers now. I won't comment on the £5 by Xmas ramps of 6 months ago. They'll be lucky to see £1.60 at Xmas on current performance.

[croc8] 15/11/2013 09:11

You had to say it che7win!