Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[warrensearle] 16/9/2013 15:01

Don't get me wrong the post AGM drop slaughtered me like everyone else but I've topped up in the 130s and 140s and come month end those prices will be a distant memory !

[matrixtrader] 16/9/2013 14:58

seller nearly clear is the rumour

[roboben] 16/9/2013 14:57

Warren - I'm with you there. You're obviously better at it than I am, though!

[noli] 16/9/2013 14:32

cool, tnks

[matrixtrader] 16/9/2013 14:30

ask SG, have sent to him, I like to keep a low profile!

[noli] 16/9/2013 14:29

matrixtrader, any chance of a link or a copy.

[matrixtrader] 16/9/2013 14:25

buy note out from GMP today - no target as yet but very bullish on forecasts per plant and progress ;)

[roboben] 16/9/2013 14:25

Leverage among PIs certainly was a factor, though we'll never really know how much of one.

I was certainly too slow to bail, that's for sure!

If I'd had the sense to bail out/take profits in the 240s (or, even, anywhere above 200) and the courage/foresight to re-enter in the 150s/140s/130s I'd have been a happy man and quite content to take the criticism for selling in the first place. I see no wisdom in holding through a 40%+ drop whether you are leveraged or not.

[norbert dentressangle] 16/9/2013 14:24

Hello all, anyone care to summarize the last 3 months for me please? :D

Electronic tags are really uncomfortable ;-)

[noli] 16/9/2013 14:21

It looks like 150 is cracking

[bogg1e] 16/9/2013 14:07

Looking back I thought the talk at the time was that "word from the city" claimed sizeable holdings by brokers had to make margin calls. I could of course be wrong and obviously there are always PIs in that position as Scrutable very honestly declared but it was the scale of the margin calls that lead me to assume they were brokers.

[warrensearle] 16/9/2013 14:00

Boggle not true there were loads of over leveraged PIs piling into Iof - any stock that goes up 250% in short time gets people piling in willy nilly thinking its a one way bet then when it turns they get margin calls and positions automatically closed (sells) this has a snowball effect everyone panics and sells out - this is what happened to one well known long in the tooth investor here and I'm sure many others and illustrates the dangers of leveraged gambling rather than investing - what evidence have you got off large insti selling around the time of the 40% drop post AGM?

[scrutable] 16/9/2013 12:33

Don't say I didn't light the path for you. GDL has reinforced the breakout and is further along the path of recovery - up 9% over the last two days and 16% today - much more to come, though a Fibonacci retracement of 10% may be the next step in the Zig Zag
dance of the stockmarket....

"Reculer pour mieux sauter" as the general said

[beercapafn] 16/9/2013 12:22

2 risky. suggest good point to re enter.

[bogg1e] 16/9/2013 12:10

2risky, in terms of leveraged positions effecting the sp, im pretty sure the big drops we have seen, which were associated with overleveraged positions were from insti's, not PIs.

[2 risky] 16/9/2013 12:06

che

certainly looks a fairly solid floor at around 140,and am watching closely.lost the thread with the overall story so i guess a bit of catch up is in order

[che7win] 16/9/2013 11:43

2 risky,
my analysis a couple of weeks ago still applies. The market is getting excitable here, we have pushed at the 150p barrier a few times now - every time weakens it and makes a break through more likely.

Its looking good so far.

[2 risky] 16/9/2013 10:43

all of the above and too much leveraged PI money ripe for a shafting by the sharp city operators as per usual IMHO

in and out for a decent profit on the way up to 1.50 looking for a re entry point
IF the facts back up the hype

good luck all

[worraps] 16/9/2013 10:33

Delays with IO2, and resignation of CEO. All now rectified, as far we know.

[2 risky] 16/9/2013 10:24

hi scruts

thought this was going to circa £7 in a straight line and in fairly short order

what happened?

[scrutable] 16/9/2013 10:08

hitsha3 15 Sep'13 - 23:21 - 8237

If everything goes to plan then where do you think we will be in next 18 months.( regarding share price £10.00,£20.00, £30.00 ).

I suppose you read post 8223, but still want to see further ahead. Well that's riskier but if the plant roll out keeps to schedule and delivers IO#14 by dec 2014 my spread sheet shows that the
150mT I expect from H1 2013 could swell to
350mT in H2 2013
850mT in H1 2014 (including 50T/ mnth rising to 100mT for the first mobile), finally
1425mT in H2 2014.

The concensus is for a clear profit of $40/mT from that 2275mT =$91m = £55m and on a PE of x18 modestly suitable for revenue growth of 307%/pa and an even higher multiple for net profit - and without counting water profits
= £7.75p/share (by Oct 2014?- after H1 results), which is consistent with my TA forecast yesterday of £3.60 by Jan 2014. I consider this very conservative but subject to revision next week after productivity news from the H1 2013 results

[orslega] 16/9/2013 10:02

che7win...we should find out....from RNS 1st August, ..last sentence..."An update on FY guidance will be provided in the interim results."

"In July the Company processed at more consistent flow rates than in the previous quarter. This has resulted in a higher daily average of iodine produced. The Board fully expects the production volumes to increase to the previously reported production estimates of 800-900 kilograms per day. The Board anticipates this to occur during the third quarter as the Company improves runtime and efficiencies along with the tie-in of additional wells by the operator. An update on FY guidance will be provided in the interim results.

hxxp://iofina.com/perch/resources/1aug2013-operational-update.pdf

[che7win] 16/9/2013 09:05

If they give any indication in the results as to how IO#2 has been performing post the interim period (July - Sept), then that could radically alter the markets view on the plants.

There is no reason why IO2 could not be producing around 1 MT per day currently, hopefully they give a detailed update on July production onwards.

It looks like we have some investors pre-booking seats for the ride next week.

[superg1] 16/9/2013 08:58

skash

I suspect the pressure will build as we move towards results, we'll see.

I guess quite a number of PI's are waiting for results to consider moving back in etc.

The key points are-:

Is io2 getting new brine and back to old levels. The combined .85 per day for Q3 is predicted.

IO3 is it on time.

io4 to 6 how are those build going and are they on time.

Revenue, not a big deal it seems just delivery being the main concern. However as I have pointed out a number of times, many may have linked the production update as material to the Chem divs operations. It's not, and the production update didn't include what the chem div does re recycling.

I expect good growth H1 12 v H1 13. A lot better had they been flying on io2 in H1, but I still expect good growth for the chem div yoy.

Io2 will prove itself over H2 I suspect, to a level we have been going on about before it was ever built.