Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[naphar] 04/9/2013 12:25

Bogg1e,

As Dig said, don't expect a huge improvement in margins this time around, you might be disappointed. Margins will possibly have improved a bit given all lower price old contracts should have ceased in the H1 numbers, to be replaced by contracts reflecting current market prices.

However, we have not produced all the iodine used IMO, so we will not get the benefit of that. Should get some benefit washed through, but it depends how much iodine we bought in from third parties, and the ratio of that to own produced in the chemical output mix.

Lastly, I would not for one minute expect any transparency on margin per product line, that's very confidential info in most companies for obvious competitive reasons.

[bogg1e] 04/9/2013 12:22

Thanks. Sorry but pls entertain one last question. If the margins per derivative is not going to be forthcomng, then per-derivative-margins cant be the "ping". So what exactly is the "ping" Lance was talking about at the AGM? Is it the rapid growth story? Is it the margin for the raw product?, etc... Tia.

Edit: Soz just read monts post.

[croc8] 04/9/2013 12:17

Hi allThanks for that date Titus. It would seem sensible for everyone to expect the interims at the end of the month, rather than before. That will hopefully mean that those with a more delicate disposition wont be worrying for the next 4 weeks. Patience is once again the key word. There will be lots of positive news coming out over the next couple of months, without the need for weeks of hand-wringing.GLACroc

[engelo] 04/9/2013 12:15

Imo IOF would want the CEO in place by the time of the interim statement, to demonstrate the whole new team pulling together. Best to announce the CEO a week or two beforehand to avoid clutter. Icing on the cake would be to have new CEO's name on the RNS announcing the interims date.

edit: dig, hadn't seen your post but on the same wavelength imo :-)

[diggulden] 04/9/2013 12:14

I wouldn't expect too much in terms of unveiling margins. Since IOF Chem were still processing some 3rd party Iodine which was bought in, we will not see the true margin benefits from IO1 and 2 until H2 results are published.

For me they just need to have a CEO on board and give a clear update that IO3-6 are on track. That will be good enough for me at this stage. Oh and make sure CF doesn't compose the update!

[bogg1e] 04/9/2013 12:10

Cheers. What about the "ping" re margins? I have it in my notes that we shall have transparency in regard to margins per product line in these interrims (and my notes could be based on me misunderstanding something). So in my tiny mind, im expecting a breakdown of chemical derivatives including revenue and margin per derivative. Is anyone else expecting this?

[engelo] 04/9/2013 12:00

Bogg1e: re interim statement to add to what SG has said, from a recent exchange with Sam:

Is it reasonable to expect that an update will be included in the interim statement when it is issued?

Yes. We will include an update just as we have in prior years.

[titus10] 04/9/2013 11:56

Fwiw, the DJ UK Calendar of Corporate Events lists the Interim 2013 Results for Friday 27th September. Just in case nobody else has posted that (afraid I don't have time to check every post here).

[bogg1e] 04/9/2013 11:40

SG yes, i picked up on that. Thankstyo yourself, Noli etc it would appear that we have access to decent info before the market. I assume Ennis doesn't know what you and others have shared (unless they employ staff to sift through public bb's of course), they may also assume that the "downplayed" tone of recent RNS's will continue and create short term disappointment?

[titus10] 04/9/2013 11:40

Yes, thanks both SG and diggulden - the sobering hand is welcome and helpful.

SG: "I know people don't like the odd hints but I don't like to spell it out for non friendlies." Must say I do feel for you sometimes... :)

I trust you'll stick with it. I'm in IOF because of the dedicated 'digging' on this thread. I bought and went on buying knowing that it was late in the then current bull trend and would probably 'consolidate', because the 'story' just ticked too many boxes not to. Sometimes even a dedicated chartist decides that, with life's hour-glass running low, taking a flyer on a speculative small-cap AIM share is worth doing. Fortunately I can handle the drawdown, which was anticipated (I planned to hedge my stock position with SB shorts but that proved impractical). I've not regretted my decision for a moment, because my 'technical' analysis of this share was correct and - though nothing in this field is certain - remains on course.

[superg1] 04/9/2013 11:28

Bog

re

'If the interims are merely an update on the financial position alone, there may be room for disappointment'

As I keep mentioning the chem div was said to be doing well, and that's where the revenue comes from.

What counts as disappointment is relative to what expectations individuals have.

Level pegging yoy v H1 12 could be seen as disappointing by some, but satisfactory by others, considering the early production issues already spelt out.

30% growth yoy can equally be seen with different views. So it's purely down to individual expectation.

The key for many seems to be general progress re improving production from io1/2, io3 build situation, and the others on the roll out, CEO etc.

Ansana shared details on some of it in a post, after comms, and it looked good.

[bogg1e] 04/9/2013 11:11

superg1, 17th twas me; tdwaterhouse state 17th september for interrims. However they have got dates wrong in the past, so i assume they are quoting 17th because that was the date last year for the interrims.

In regards to the short position and interrims. If the interrims are merely an update on the financial position alone, there may be room for disappointment. But in my notes i have the interrims as the "ping", due to disclosure of margins etc. If SG is right about interested parties, it could be that there is already a range of offers calculated, which are just waiting for a bit of diligence on the books to confirm.

[phoenixs] 04/9/2013 11:01

diggulden and superg1, thanks for info and input. Could be interesting times ahead and not too long to wait!

[superg1] 04/9/2013 10:50

Phoenixs

Ennis went after mining stocks and lumped IOF into that, the CEO circs were just plain old luck for them. Not that I enjoy calling it that, considering the circs for the CEO.

Shorts are not long term as far as I'm concerned, so I just view them as a large buy waiting to happen when they close. It's the same for long or shorts, if you try to buy on good news it can be tough with no supplies around (check out ATUK re tight shares).

The same goes for bad news, very hard to sell, but a short closing would be effectively be a buy. IMO they should close when a supply is around but one is about to dry up it seems.

I know people don't like the odd hints but I don't like to spell it out for non friendlies.

Indications are that the supply for the last few weeks is known, I heard late yesterday and it's said not a lot were left. An amount a PI or two could take out.

We'll see how it goes re supplies over the next week or two.

Meadow.

For whatever reason Mondays are not seen as the popular day, so I'll go for the 17th EDIT, or maybe the week after lol covers things a bit, but certainly week 3/4 Sept imo.

Jonny someone did post the 17th, as listed somewhere by a broker, I believe and it fits in with things I have heard. Then again if they are to do presentations it could be a Monday etc to give the full week.

I do believe they will get a CEO in place first if they are able to.

[diggulden] 04/9/2013 10:41

Phoneixs,

Ennismore have been operating a short on IOF for a while now. I think the latest figure is about 1.3% of free float. Quite normal for funds to have shorts though, if you check most AIM stocks with a MCap over £150M they will have a portion of shorts.

They obviously have there reasons, I suspect they believe the interims will be poor, I think they are wrong (hence why I am invested), I think we will see a reduction of the shorts after interim results, especially with the rapid roll out which is occurring for the last 4 months of this year.

Personally, I think the market is pricing in low expectations at the moment. Whereas before we have been priced for perfection, so any nice surprises this month will give the share price a good jolt.

[meadow2] 04/9/2013 10:33

I'll be disappointed if the results don't arrive on or before Monday 16th September.

[phoenixs] 04/9/2013 10:28

I heard that Ennismore were shorting IOF. Does anyone know how many they may have shorted?
Surely they must be aware of the roll out of IOF 3,4,5,6 etc.

[jointer13] 04/9/2013 10:08

johnyno1..they were announced last year on the 17th

[hitsha3] 04/9/2013 10:01

All my Iofina are in ISA, my and Mrs.

[jonnyno1] 04/9/2013 10:01

I'm going mad, i had it in my mind that the interims were being announced on the 17th but cannot find any evidence to support that!

[engelo] 04/9/2013 09:54

warmsun: one of those days when the 'current' share price shows 142.5, but the spread is 143.5/146 and small buy of 1700 just gone through at 145.6

[festario] 04/9/2013 09:45

Who knows, who cares... these weeks in the doldrums are irrelevant and tedious.