Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bogg1e] 16/8/2013 13:54

Do you think we will be given better insight into IOC product lines with the interrims? It seems they are staying low key around margins per product, which surely has to become more transparent at some point.

[superg1] 16/8/2013 13:49

Bog

yes no probs with new sectors and they do have unique new niche products. I have no idea what they are, but suspect things like electronics gases.

[bogg1e] 16/8/2013 13:44

SG thanks. Given that Chris Faye mentioned India, China and South Korea for derivatives as growth sectors, i find it hard to believe that IOC wont increase current IOC output to meet that demand, even if they only focus growth in a few product lines, although that probably means a few more shifts rather than building a new plant for example. Interesting also regarding Troy. From what you write it sounds that a) IOF hold some very powerful cards that could be used to steal market from the competition and b) are very altruistic towards Troy/the competition in how IOF would use them (which tbh i would prefer).

[superg1] 16/8/2013 13:33

Boggle

Personally I'd want IOf to steer clear of ramping up the chem div early on. bets to sell the bulk product imo.

My logic.

End users like the Troy corporation buy it in, maybe from Chile. They won't want someone like IOF going after their sector, they wouldn't be able to compete in price.

Check out their site, re price rises for products directly linked to iodine.

So for any end user in those circs in the US without there own production, surely they would be very keen to buy bulk from IOF to avoid IOF going down the chem div expansion route (self-preservation.

Plenty of Chile guys don't have the vertical integration, so there is no issue with leaving them for US supply. The US imports near 6000mt.

In that format, I don't see why IOF would even need to undercut the price.

Jeff P suggested at the presentation that US end users want US supplied iodine.

Re carbon footprints, let's not forget IOF are said to be able to produce at zero emissions. The transport distance is also relevant re that.

[bogg1e] 16/8/2013 13:29

Wud anyone like retiree for example, mind posting a level 2 pls? Tia.

[bogg1e] 16/8/2013 13:07

I know but its hilarious isn't it! (the voice is actually Viv Stanshall from the bonzo dog doodah band - one of the wittiest and weirdest men in history, like a fruity version of Peter cook) Promise wont post any more! Anyhow watching IOF and QFI can get a bit "tense", i thought it may relieve the angst!

[freshvoice] 16/8/2013 13:05

Boggle

Don't let's copy the village idiot with video clips, lets keep this as an investment BB. LOL

[bogg1e] 16/8/2013 13:00

Its Mr Cadburys parrot!

[superg1] 16/8/2013 12:38

Engelo

I don't think H1 will reflect margin potential re opec capex in nay way that reflects the future.

Opex is directly linked to the amount of production per plant and comes down as production goes up, so those factors won't be bale to be fully understood in financial reports until next imo.

Also H1 chem div used bulk iodine bought in if you look at it so that will have been at the market rate.

Actual revenue will be the guide to chem div growth. As bag pointed out, there are a number of expenses of new staff(landmen, plant staff, plant supervisors, engineers and so on), its the growth phase. LinkedIn is a good place to look to see the growing number of staff and they positions they are in.

The chem div is probably doing well.

[bogg1e] 16/8/2013 12:26

Thanks chaps.

whats a white swan pls? Tia

Also, been rereading through me notes, looking at IOC - current iodine used to make derivatives I have quoted at 200-300 metric tons p.a. However IOC will gear up to 800 tons iodine p.a, but can also expand to a total use of 1000 tons p.a (extra shifts, expanding kentucky lab, etc). If these numbers are correct, then IOC needs to approx treble output. Is this growth aligned with forecast iodine output (the more excess iodine for IOC the more staff they recruit etc etc) or will they wait til the excess of 1600-1900 tons achieved for raw iodine sales then roll out expansion? Any ideas? Tia.

PS TDwater house (who arent very reliable on dates tbh) state interrims september 17th.

[engelo] 16/8/2013 12:12

Boggle: The interims reporting on H1 2013 may give a clue to OPEX CAPEX etc imo. Also IOF Cem will come out of the bushes. However lots of room for much more. Believe that there will be no more updates on I02/3 etc until then (broker est Sept 19th I seem to remember), by which time the new CEO will be bedded in providing a solid launch pad for rest of 2013, 2014 and beyond.

However short term (Worraps: shows up my own mindset that Sept 19th is long term) we still have CEO and water to look forward to, as SG has said. Or a white swan perhaps??

[superg1] 16/8/2013 12:08

Worraps

Why do you think the interims will be disappointing? I know plants coming online has been delayed, but that was all about adding revenue beyond the chem div, H1 2013 has never been our acceleration point in regards to figures.

The one factor we have to include is the sudden expansion re staff, gaining leases, water application and land leases connected to that.

The Chem div has been the driver for the last few years re revenues, and that is not controlled by what plants produce. They had an inventory of iodine from a bulk purchase and produce their own via recycling at a rate of 60mt per year.

Anything production could have added would have been a bonus. That will happen but the timing slipped, partially due to ignoring a site available in Texas in H1 to concentrate on a roll out in OK.

They did say in presentations that things were going well at the chem div, with new products and growth. Generally most results compare H1 with the previous H1.

I will check re the additional non iodine revenue, but I believe that kicks in during late H2 then fully in 2014.

That's why I don't like looking at brick walls like financial reporting periods. It's pointless with rapid growth, and is if you look at the IOF roll out. If io5 and 6 start up next Jan of Feb, then it's daft to ignore those by looking that up to io4 is running.

Take ATUK which I highlighted and kept an eye on. Recently they mentioned a slight delay in receipt of revenues, which kicked the receipt of them into another financial period (recent event). The price went down to 7 p ish I think. A daft reaction as it's around 21p now.

The delay of io3 and and move to OK has all been covered.

IOF mentioned triple digit growth for the next few years, that hasn't changed and is very rare in any business. The catalyst for that is in the business plan for the next few months, putting in date barriers, just creates a false picture when such growth is in play. Pods could appear too, and they are material with some on my calculator the same as io1 or more, so do we call them io 7 and 8.

All along I've said it's about bpd and ppm, not the number of plants. So each plant and pod will to some degree add to the overall production pot.

[che7win] 16/8/2013 12:02

"worraps 16 Aug'13 - 11:20 - 7136 of 7138 0 0

I feel quite excited about the next 6 weeks or so, particularly about any IO2 and IO3 news. I'm hoping CEO news, IO2 / IO3 news, water news, will offset any disappointment in the interims in September. Because the next three months after all of that should reveal an amazing and fast development pace, where the 'ping' has happened, and the shareprice should light up "like a Christmas tree" (your words)."

worraps - I agree with your comments above re the interim results and up coming news.
The first 6 months of this year will not show much earnings - maybe 1p EPS I expect. We already know the iodine output - around 62.5 MT.

Note that we will have consumed cash for working capital and the 60 day credit for iodine imports disappearing. That means we have to put the cash upfront into working capital.

And we will be ramping up staff.
However the operational increase of iodine will look good.

If they give a post-result update, they should be able to say that they produced more iodine in August and July than the whole of the first half. The growth will be spectacular because it's from a low base, 5 plants running by year end is what we can look forward to. They can give plenty of positive information out on the prospects.

The business is progressing, the second half will look a bit better, but it's not until next year that we see the really impressive results for 6-9 plants operational at H1 2014.

[angel of the north] 16/8/2013 11:48

Spoke to a gypsy with a crystal ball this morning and in her tea leaves she says a 'pennant' is forming a platform for take-off? I would be very dubious of her methods until I consult the Tarot cards and the dregs from my coffee grounds tho'!

[naphar] 16/8/2013 11:36

Bogg1e
full year 2012 results were published some months ago. You will not get any more detail for 2012 than what was in there.

[bogg1e] 16/8/2013 11:27

worrpas, SG, arent the 2012 results published in full detail along with the interrims? I thought SG meant that the Ping will occur with the release of the 2012 accounts because we will see their costs and margins per division/product line? Happy to be corrected if not the case.

[worraps] 16/8/2013 11:20

superg....yes, it is all slotting into place. I'm very pleased with the choice of new CFO, and have no doubt the new CEO will soon follow. I just have an impatient personality that I cannot change. Always wanting to run before I can walk, not the best type for investing!

I feel quite excited about the next 6 weeks or so, particularly about any IO2 and IO3 news. I'm hoping CEO news, IO2 / IO3 news, water news, will offset any disappointment in the interims in September. Because the next three months after all of that should reveal an amazing and fast development pace, where the 'ping' has happened, and the shareprice should light up "like a Christmas tree" (your words).

[bogg1e] 16/8/2013 11:14

Very muted response to the RNS this morning.

[superg1] 16/8/2013 10:33

worraps

That's just a crucial piece of the jigsaw, for any growing company. Funds would be concerned if their was no CFO on the BOD.

There is a history of problem companies and fraud that didn't have those in place, hence it can discourage investment, so you need the foundations in place.

Company sec was the last one, now CFO on the BOD, then comes the new CEO. It's all slotting into place.

[worraps] 16/8/2013 10:17

Quite so, engelo.....let's hope it's served up soon then, with a dessert of a tasty water permit.

[engelo] 16/8/2013 09:58

Mkt can't be bothered with hors doeuvre wants the red meat of the main course :-)

[worraps] 16/8/2013 09:48

What a shame that the market isn't as pleased as we are!

[king_roster_iii] 16/8/2013 09:41

I also don't think he has taken the job because he is desperate for money.

He was a co-founder of Voyant Technologies that was bought by Polycom in 2004 for around $110 million.

Although vc funding was involved at some stage, he must have had a good share of them apples.

[king_roster_iii] 16/8/2013 09:27

Indeed Retiree.

On his Linkedin page he describes himself as an "Entrepreneurial CFO" - liking the sound of that.

It will be interesting to see in the interims if we can detect any influence he has had on any of IOF's existing accounting policies re: internal pricing, recognition of capital expenditure ect ect to "maximise" IOF's half years results.