Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 16/8/2013 07:02

I can see some logic in building an inventory to build confidence in your customers.

Sirocco for the last few quarters have had to discount their price under the going rate, probably to keep their customers.

so it could be bite the bullet, stock up, and charge the going rate offering immediate delivery.

I'll look at production so far v what they intend this year. They were at a rate of about 23 to 24 mt per week. So if 10-12 weeks behind that's 240 to 300 mt.

However the plan was to add 388 mt this year, so you can see. If it is on track as they claim then, why the 6 month issue.

[cyfran101] 16/8/2013 00:48

Posted on the SLE thread. Thought it might highlight the shale potential we have at 3 forks

"Quietly growing in the shadow of the Bakken shale, the Three Forks has emerged as a significant tight-oil resource play. Interest in the Three Forks is expanding as more wells are drilled and the magnitude of this unconventional opportunity is being revealed.

Current Three Forks production is in the range of 78,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day from some 435 horizontal wells, according to IHS Inc. In the Williston Basin, Three Forks resource potential has recently been estimated at more than 3.7 billion barrels of undiscovered technically recoverable oil, according to a recent two-year reassessment of the Bakken petroleum system by the USGS.

Geology. In the U.S., the Three Forks formation extends across a large area of western North and South Dakota, northern Montana and eastern Idaho. In Canada, its age equivalents extend into southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba and into the southern Alberta Basin.

The formation is productive in a large portion of the Williston Basin and just across the border in southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba. The equivalent stratigraphic unit in the southern Alberta Basin, the Big Valley formation, is beginning to be exploited in relatively thin carbonate shoals, sourced from the Exshaw shale (a Bakken equivalent).

In the Williston Basin, the Three Forks lies conformably above the Bird-bear (Nisku) formation and is unconformably overlain primarily by the Lower Bakken shale, or in some areas, the Pronghorn member of the Bakken.The Three Forks is thickest in the central part of the basin, where it is up to 250 feet thick.

In general, the Three Forks consists of silty dolostone, clay-rich dolostone, red beds and anhydrites. It is comprised of facies groups interpreted to include terrestrial paleosols, sabkha and intertidal to subtidal deposits.Reservoir rocks are composed of alternating thick laminae and very thin beds of silt-sized dolomite and green/grey argillaceous mudstone.

The dolomite intervals contain measurable porosity, 6% to 8%, but low permeability, generally less than 0.1 millidarcies. Recent cores show oil saturation throughout the interval. The formation is generally overpressured and found at depths of 8,200 to 11,200 feet. The primary source rock for the Three Forks is the overlying Lower Bakken shale. However, where the lower and middle Bakken thin, in the southern portion of the basin, the Upper Bakken shale is the primary source rock.

The upper portion of the interval, the Upper Three Forks, has been the primary target for the oil and gas industry, with the first potential reservoir just 20 feet below the base of the Lower Bakken shale. The industry designates the stacked reservoirs within the Three Forks by "benches," with the first bench and second bench in the Upper Three Forks, the third bench in the Middle and the fourth bench at the base of the formation.

Most of the current production is from the first bench, but Continental Resources Inc. has established commercial production from both the second and third benches. Continental reports that the first and second benches are widespread across the basin, the third bench is widespread but contains more shale and anhydrite, and the fourth bench contains more locally present dolomites.

Production trends and drilling. Drilling the Three Forks is similar to the Bakken, and involves long laterals and multistage fracture stimulations. The 90-day cumulative production bubble map for all Three Forks horizontal wells (drilled from 2008 to 2012) shows the most productive wells have occurred along the Nesson anticline, the southern extent of the Little Knife anticline in Stark and Billings counties, and in northern Dunn, southwestern Mountrail and western Divide counties.

The large structural elements found in the Williston Basin appear to be important controls on Three Forks production. The most active Three Forks drillers are contemplating three to four drilling locations per 1,280-acre drilling unit, primarily for the first bench. Spacing pilots in the Three Forks are under way and will help guide future drilling density including development of all productive benches.

Operator activity. Active Three Forks operators include Continental Resources Inc., ConocoPhillips, QEP Resources Inc., EOG Resources Corp., Hess Corp., Whiting Petroleum Corp. and Samson Resources Corp., among others.

Continental Resources has drilled nearly 20% of all Three Forks wells in the Williston Basin. With its existing wells and the 10-well coring program it completed in 2012, it has the best Three Forks dataset in the industry.The company has reported that the cores indicate oil saturation from the base of the Lodgepole to the top of the Nisku. The company has several pilot density projects for 320-acre and 160-acre spacing in multi-Three Forks benches.

QEP Resources' most recent acquisition of Helis Oil & Gas in eastern McKenzie County provided it with excellent Three Forks producing wells and future drilling locations (South Antelope area). QEP is anticipating Three Forks long-lateral wells, drilled post-January 2010 in this area, will provide an average estimated ultimate recovery of 990,000 BOE. The area is clearly in a sweet spot for the Three Forks with several existing wells on target to produce more than 1 million BOE. QEP's Fort Berthold Three Forks wells have also performed well and are comparable to its best Bakken wells. Looking forward, the USGS reassessment may sharpen producers' focus on the Three Forks. In the meantime, continued Three Forks drilling will add significant production and reserves to an already oil-rich basin"

Tim Pish, Scotiabank, [phone], [e-mail].

[the librarian] 15/8/2013 23:15

Took no prisoners with that post superg, so basically it's no iodine and no customers at present for them and using the cash they have to keep it afloat.
The Lundin group don't usually make mistakes like that!

[superg1] 15/8/2013 22:33

Interesting that the industrial minerals site now cover the iodine lithium battery story. SQM in particular will be interested in that with there interest in both commodities.

Sirocco

Yep No surprise I have been asking around all day. That inventory story stinks.

12 to 14 weeks supply time suggest they have to build an inventory to allow them to up their price, I can see no point in doing it otherwise.

It seems like they also mention a change of supply route.

However just think about it. They claim to have a 12 to 14 week delay time, so decide not to supply at all. ???

If you are producing iodine it goes out daily/weekly at a constant rate so where is the delay in a cycle of constant supply. So to get it down to 1-2 weeks they build an inventory over 6 months

'While this strategy will impact/defer sales of iodine for up to six months in 2013, it will allow the Company to be more flexible in meeting customer demand by reducing the delivery time of product from the historic 12 to 14 weeks to 1 to 2 weeks.'

So supply sod all for 6 months, to get a supply time down from 12 to 14 weeks to 1 to 2 weeks.

But then they claim to be adding 388mt this year with there slurrying kit (earlier rns's), most of that would be in H2 and in theory would solve their delivery times.

Simple maths that doesn't add up.

So I thought I'd ask a Chile connection who knows them. 'Complete and utter BS was the reply' and a rant similar to mine. with the main point of.

How the H can you be 12 to 14 weeks behind on something that you send out daily.
If a customer needed iodine, they would simply go elsewhere. Sir seemed to have dropped the price to keep them, and have failed.

Sirocco have long had problems with plant 'wear' on the ALP they mention. If that is corrosion due to positive ions (very likely) the very expensive plant will go out of action.

The ex CEO of Sirocco thinks it's corrosion and the current one doesn't understand iodine. I raised the issues with Simon Jackson now ex-president and had comms, not long after, he left. ??

So all in all a strange rns, where the maths doesn't add up, or the logic of any of it.

Increased production which would solve supply times. PPM dropping, reduce delivery by 10 weeks, but need 6 months to bridge the gap, on something they produce daily.

So what happens to their customers for the next 6 months.

It looks, smells, and tastes like BS, and the man from Del monte says it is.

Just as well Sirocco is not on the market here, I'd have lot's of friends on that BB, NOT.

Look at the chart, we have been talking about problems for them way back, so no hindsight.

I believe there problems will continue. If ALP issue is corrosion, it's a one way ticket.

Now that is a share to short

[diggulden] 15/8/2013 20:46

Their timing could be awful. I hope one of the customers they are stock piling for isn't the 1600MT one we have lined up for home grown Iodine.

[the librarian] 15/8/2013 20:40

It seems that they are struggling for some reason Monty, no satisfaction in that but I do wonder whether they overdid it on the leaching process and just ran out of stock. It's a brave decision to stop supplying, but when they have built up some stock they may rethink their decision on supplying two main customers and tap into the India and China markets?

[monty panesar] 15/8/2013 19:44

Looks like Sirocco have given no thought on who they are going to supply hence the low price and high inventories. Not surprising they are loss making.
Customers I imagine want to know they have a reliable supply. Why have a long term supply agreement in place when you know if the iodine price falls your key supplier will be out of business?

[pcjoe] 15/8/2013 19:32

Macca no more it would seem - Never did find out what he actually invests in - On another point I see there is a lot about trolls on the TV these days - I have to say I don`t get it - If they are not threatening women with death & rape or bullying young girls into suicide they turn up on ADVFN! - Nothing really funny about these characters though - Pretty sad, jealous, bitter & presumably very lonely individuals all round

[monty panesar] 15/8/2013 19:25

Sg,

Any views on the Sirocco results that are out?

Thanks

[superg1] 15/8/2013 18:48

Not sure why WAWS is mentioned other than dropping the 10 mile rule bait in. That's ND and potentially depots 4 5 and 6.

I'm happy with just iodine.

[florence10] 15/8/2013 18:33

Macca has been doused!

[superg1] 15/8/2013 18:31

It's hard to judge who reads. I have a few on filter, so I have no idea re points they raise which can range from correct, relevant, a misinterpretation, completely wrong, or lies.

So if anyone does bother to read some of it and thinks. mmmmmm fair point, then just ask on here. Not by creating new profiles of course as some have many ID's and old one's.

Although filtered, I can see who immediately posted, at the time of the ban. a poster that isn't in iof never has been but is completely obsessed with following me. That guy is the same guy we all love under another and various other names.

I saw something briefly about the 10 mile WAWS blah, blah, Blah. I and one other (Noli) did all the research in that back in March and sent all the US legislation and details covering it shortly after to IOF, it was well received. There is a simple answer, one which the capt of the General Belgrano didn't stick to.

Then J Ames mentioned the other day, the cross state water permit. That guy has been in the game for years, so perhaps he found a cunning way to increase his water within the exclusion zone by getting rights just into he next state, then switch the extraction point. He had depots before the boom, and canlt help the WAWS situation dropping on him

ND is 210 mile by 360 miles

Wales is about 20k km2

Ireland 85k km2

The Bakken Oil play. 520k km2

[the librarian] 15/8/2013 18:06

The maca doth protest too much, methinks :-)

Would rather watch paint dry!

[tackems] 15/8/2013 17:31

Well done SG1....

[jointer13] 15/8/2013 16:52

i'm surprised your patience lasted so long sg.
he is only out to disrupt.

[superg1] 15/8/2013 16:45

Can't be bothered to read it. It's blatantly obvious what the guy is up to.

[pcjoe] 15/8/2013 16:06

Supreme - Like this comment in the article from a senior official - "Eventually, that river is going to get tied up," - The Missouri is beginning to suffer excess demand on its waters due to a population explosion and increased industrial, farming & barge usage - At some point no new rights will be issued

Presumably that means all the the temporary permits to withdraw water will be removed leaving only Bona Fide water right extractors in place to exploit the demand - Little old IOF will be in a very nice place to exploit such demand - That will be the time to cash in on our USF&W swapped rights ( In addition to our soon to be existing Culbertson water rights etc )

I dont care if we sell all our lovely water to Townships or Oilies - As long as it brings in a good few Greenbacks......

[supreme mo] 15/8/2013 14:50

Interesting article re produced water with comments from bloke Bob Shaver who SG speaks highly of:http://www.mtpioneer.com/2012-September-Bakken-Oil-Play.html

[bogg1e] 15/8/2013 13:34

SG,

"IOF also mentioned concentrated brines, that can only be recycling somewhere and iof picking up the concentrate". So this is where Veolia comes in I take it.

"I see ASOS PE 400 and the investors still pile in. Perhaps it will represent it's 400 PE in profits in time, perhaps it won't." - I try to keep up to date with Fukushima. Convincing Official info is harder to get hold off from any main stream news channel or government websites, but there are many little interesting snippets, like the fact that the US Govt turned off all its radiation monitoring towers along the western sea board about 3 months after the Fukushima disaster, that still births along the Canadian seaboard has increased 800% year on year since the disaster. At some point soon, when the public wake up to the incredible cover up internationally, the public will be clammering for iodine and for governments to start importing loads of it. I would rather see IOFgrow organically, but I think they will be taken out to control a chunk of the iodine market. Fukushima is a large subject to trawl through, but i am convinced, sadly though, that the use of iodine (potassium iodide in particular) will rise very, very sharply, especially when governments (in particular those in the northern hemisphere) are forced to start stockpiling, which as we know, there are no stockpiles of iodine anywhere except at IOC :-) I think Geopolitics will have the upper hand eventually as to IOFs future. To get back to the point, I think a p/e of 400 like ASOS, under these circumstances is very possible.

[superg1] 15/8/2013 13:21

Bog

The PE could change rapidly if bids for any leases for Oil potential or helium, gas or anything else appears. The same goes for the water side.

Hal last time offered $15m for half of water revenue and a 50% share of Atlantis. That was at a time when the water boom was beginning, it has moved on since then.

Then there is the potential for significant revenue increase as plants and pods appear.

IOF also mentioned concentrated brines, that can only be recycling somewhere and iof picking up the concentrate.

Then they mentioned getting into the waste water side, which is something O have not bothered even looking at.

I see ASOS PE 400 and the investors still pile in. Perhaps it will represent it's 400 PE in profits in time, perhaps it won't.

[bogg1e] 15/8/2013 13:15

We are currently just off the bottom of the RSI historical low (about 30 is the rsi bottom for IOF historically), just under the 200 dma. Technically one would have to say we are in the process of a bounce occurring. It feels though like the market is just waiting for news. I don't believe that there are many traders in IOF who are not aware, like the long termers, that expected good news is imminent. From a traders point of view (especially shorters) the company is in an interval which could rapidly change in either direction and traders will not want to be caught on the wrong side. In spite of that the forward p/e is still high, around 30 and so shorters still have ammunition. Tense stuff. Especially as Hurricane has popped up, who always seems to be a forbinger of good tidings, also on the "other" thread, woody seems "expectant". Good stuff and good luck chaps (and any lady chaps reading this). Wouldnt want to be un-pc :-)

[superg1] 15/8/2013 13:09

I agree Spike, but for the rest, make no mistake, it could light up like an xmas tree here, near term.