Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[noli] 31/7/2013 14:36

It might not take 30 days for the ground work, i will see if i can get any info on the timing of that. I believe the idea is to get the ground workers or site prepared in advance. Take IO#3 as an example, it should have gone to texas but ended up in OK. I would presume the site was prepared for the plant as the plant was redirected to OK, so the new IO#3 site would have needed the ground work doing which again was slightly delayed due to farmer giles.

Going forward, if iof have already decided where the next 9 or 10 plants are going to, i.e OK, i would assume iof know the locations as the leases need sorting. This should mean the ground work team know well in advance so the contractor can just get on with the foundations for the build.

We had i suppose a delay on getting the electric up at another plant but iof have no say over issues as such, so whilst frustrating everyone just has to wait for it to happen, it could happen many times going forward but that life.

[bogg1e] 31/7/2013 14:30

Forgive me for being "crystal ballish" but im wondering whether a mixture of hitting the 200 mda at 150p ish and the reassurance from Sam at IOF has added bullishness to the share. It "feels" to me like we are entering into a good upward trend, im sure we will get past 170p today, unless there's disastrous news from the US in the next hour or so. The futures market however looks cautiously optimistic for now.

[bogg1e] 31/7/2013 14:22

Noli cheers. In which case the construction crew, should it experience delays, will not necessarily impede the ground work team with getting on with the next plant. Given that the construction side is more complicated, i imagine thats where delays are more likely to stem from.

[noli] 31/7/2013 14:16

Thats right dig, 2 teams, one for the ground work and one to build. So the first team i.e the ground work team lays the foundations which i would assume would take approx 30 days then the construction team take over to build the plant. Once the ground work team has finished then they would move onto the next site whilst the construction team build the plant. Thats how i understand it, i know a meeting occured 4 or 5 months ago with regards to getting in front with the ground work side as iof did get behind at one stage.

[bogg1e] 31/7/2013 13:50

Dig i see. Thanks.

[diggulden] 31/7/2013 13:41

Bogg1e, the idea was the construction teams would move from IO3 onto IO4 once completed, bearing in mind different teams being used for construction, wiring etc, so the idea was that IO4 would be started 30 days after IO3 was started, so I assume 30 days is the 'construction' stage.

[bogg1e] 31/7/2013 13:25

Why is the construction of 1 plant dependant on the previous plant? Arent two plants being built simultaneously? The idea was put forward after the agm, so if the BoD have said that delays in the construction of one plant will effect the roll out of another plant i accept it. Its just that i also thought IO#4 is being built later than but still concurrent with IO#3. So they must have two construction crews right?

[scrutable] 31/7/2013 13:16

Ansana 31 Jul'13 - 08:06 - 5926

The inference in your message from Sam is unambiguous. If all goes well IO3 will be commissioned end August and IO4 "by the end of Q3".

Delays are conceivable which would postpone IO4 "until early Q4" This would happen if, by inference, commissioning of IO3 is delayed until early September.

[chumbo] 31/7/2013 13:04

Ansana, many thanks. So its roughly 5 ktpa coming in from Chile and 1 ktpa from Japan. Bit of a discrepancy in the average price compared to what we have seen elsewhere, bearing in mind iodine's effectively zero rated for duty. I think our price expectation currently is on the $ early fifties.

Test: I also remember JP saying something along the lines of "we could sell a thousand tonnes tomorrow", which I guess is what you refer to above. Bearing in mind BGR factor I and I derivatives for domestic use and export we can't really tell which their interest is for. I guess this opens up the question of route to market, commission etc. Not sure I'd expect IOF to go through third parties for large domestic users but that's only a guess and maybe it's been covered previously (like most things!) so apologies.

[everybodywangchungtonight] 31/7/2013 12:42

Keeping expectations in check :

Worst case scenario for managements current statement to remain on target:

IO#3 to be commissioned by 30 September and IO#4 to be commissioned by 31 October.

EWCT

[n3tleylucas] 31/7/2013 12:29

"what is important to appreciate is that from all these replies everything is going well"

Rubbish, mere repetition of the last update. Meaningless.

[testuser123] 31/7/2013 11:12

Chumbo - I've not looked into it but apparantly there is a company called BGR based in montreal, canada who would happily buy a four figure tonnage of raw iodine from IOF. Also they have no issue working with the raw Iodine cake which is outputted from our plants.

[malachey] 31/7/2013 10:55

joeywald, re post 5940: yeah I came to the same conclusion as it can be read that way, but probably best not to assume that and stick to io3 commissioned 'within' Q3, to avoid disappointment.

malachey.

[joeywald] 31/7/2013 10:40

Thanks, Ansana. Nowhere near the "sell" button :)

[ansana] 31/7/2013 10:37

Joey the honest answer is I don't know. However you, me and others have had the same thought. For me what is important to appreciate is that from all these replies everything is going well and following the plan that IOF have mapped out. I don't doubt the company and so I wait for the news. I no longer watch the share price bouncing around all day long. Why? it goes up I smile, it goes down I frown and it also means I get little else done! The day to day price doesn't matter. I am here for the long term. With each day that passes they collect more data, pump more brine, build more plants, get closer to a CEO etc etc the upside is well in advance of any negativity. H2 is going to be a very fine vintage IMO. Tip, just stay right away from the sell button. Bye for now.

[chumbo] 31/7/2013 10:34

Thanks SG. So it looks like IOF might dedicate their first 800 tpa (potential IOC expansion aside) to IOC, then target 1,600 tpa at the domestic cake market. Then we have a residual US raw I market in prill form of 4,400 tpa.

This is probably oversimplified if we have export markets such as India vying for capacity but I think I'm right in saying it establishes a threshold for prilling being needed at 2,400 tpa unless there are ready export markets for cake.

[superg1] 31/7/2013 10:09

Just a thought. Io1 is near a full year of running.

While io1 is not of great interest in the bigger picture of production rates, they will have data about how long it has been running and at what yield rate etc.

It will be interesting to see how much downtime it has had. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 90 percent run rate.

That's good solid data that analysts can work with. The io1 set up has the most variables due to brine being trucking in.

If they can get io1 running with decent yields and time in operation, then it's a very good guide for the OK set up which has more favourable circs.

[flyingbull] 31/7/2013 10:04

The August oil stock challenge is still open for entries. Deadline for entries is midnight tonight!



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[joeywald] 31/7/2013 10:03

Ansana

The response you received would suggest that IO3 will be commisioned in late August given that IO4 is about 4 weeks behind - or do I have this wrong?

[noli] 31/7/2013 09:59

I asked the question a while back about iodine production v sales, i was told they could sell all produced with no problems, such is the demand.

[superg1] 31/7/2013 09:53

Chumbo

It must be the Chileans along with some Japanese US production.

Japan production has been set for some time in it's own niche market over that way.

The 1600mt figure came from presentations etc.

It was said that the chem div could go to around 800mt within the current set up. Then comes a market of 1600mt of iodine cake. After that prilling would be needed for the other sectors.

On the subject of US end users, to give some idea of whether the US end users would want to buy from Japanese and Chileans, or the US.

The answer given by Jeff was more or less 'hell yes, they want US produced iodine ASAP'.

So I don't think IOF will have any problems re buyers, once they go beyond their own chem div needs.

Of the opex levels are right no one could match IOF on price anyway.

The US import near 6000mt.

I think you will find the US mentality of buying home grown, is very strong.

[chumbo] 31/7/2013 09:40

SG: You've repeatedly made reference to the US importing 1,600 tpa of raw iodine I think, which I suspect is potentially the first target market for IOF's additional capacity due to a preference by US users to buy home-grown. Do we have an idea who's supplying this tonnage currently?

Edit: apologies, 6000 tpa!

[noli] 31/7/2013 09:32

In theory IO#3 could be earning money in 3 weeks as hydro testing takes 1 to 5 days, as 20k bpd are already waiting for IO#3 happy days very soon.