Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[n3tleylucas] 03/7/2013 17:38

Bogg1e,

"When it comes to takeovers, is there a general method applied to evaluating a company for a takeover?"

Yes, if a predator believes the value they are happy to pay will be accepted, they will launch a takeover offer.

[uppompeii] 03/7/2013 17:37

You can't, hence a 40% drop here, its speculative until the numbers come in or the story is believed beyond a bulletin board.

[bogg1e] 03/7/2013 17:29

When it comes to takeovers, is there a general method applied to evaluating a company for a takeover? How long is a piece of string? I know. The other factor that makes it hard to quantify is the steady but relatively explosive growth factor. As far as i can tell from the calculations, IOF are in a position to outperform the broker targets by some considerable margins and therefore achieve 100%+ growth for maybe 2-3 years before logistical constraints kick in. How on earth does one value such companies? Tia.

[worraps] 03/7/2013 16:30

Ansana, you always come across as a non-euphoric, feet on the ground poster, and definately to be trusted. Looking forward to THAT news very much! And hoping we can maintain some stability afterwards too.

[peterz] 03/7/2013 16:26

Many thank CK and Ansana. Confidence building again.

[ansana] 03/7/2013 16:08

Up fair point, Could it be 10 days, 10 working days or 10 working days including the US holidays? I would prefer the former but it may be the latter. News is coming. Worraps your comment was appreciated. I do not consider myself a Ramper, I do admit that I am a big supporter of IOF but for all that I would never mislead people. I know the Comms CK talked of and I do not doubt that we will get substantive news. I am please to see our recovery is underway after the appalling flash crash.
When you fall off a horse you just have to get back on. The posts on the board and the steady as she goes attitude of many indicate that things are steadying. But please having read this post don't think time to 'fill your boots' be cautious, until we get news I assume that the share price will continue to swing about. It will take a break out above 170 before I consider buying again.

[hew] 03/7/2013 16:08

Maca, thanks for promoting a useful discussion based on fair (as you see them) points made, and more thanks to those who politely answered them.

The debate about the potential future IOF/Oil Cos relationships and business interactions is now common currency here and has been extensively explored since (I believe) I first raised it, a while back. I initially focused on the distinction between IOF providing a general "rubbish collection service" to many and what seems at the moment could, I think, be called more of three way JVs between IOF, the iodine licencers and a small number of oil Cos.

Whilst the financials re the early plants are (I hope) well tied up, when those have been bedded down and cash as well as brine and iodine are flowing, I suspect the Oil Cos will take a harder look at who is getting what when future brine supplies are being organised.

I'm not put off by this as there should be benefits for all, but it may be that our Opex will be somewhat higher than the most optimistic figures suggested here. I agree with Maca that the on-going business management may be rather more complex, dynamic and negotiated than the early connections to IO2 and IO3 and that financials will be an overt element. But I don't see that as a reason to be negative or consider that there are not highly profitable win-win opportunities for IOF. We hold the iodine licences after all.

An early acquisition is sometimes mentioned. I do see that any valuation is likely to be more complex and potentially uncertain because of the Oil Co factor. But again, it should not be a significant matter once IOF has established a benefits-for-all business model - that is the key.

[worraps] 03/7/2013 16:03

uppompeii......Any one of those tens would do me!

[worraps] 03/7/2013 16:02

engelo......now that would be the icing on the cake! Wouldn't that be nice.

[uppompeii] 03/7/2013 15:46

Could it be 10 days, 10 working days or 10 working days including the US holidays?

[angel of the north] 03/7/2013 15:45

Reckon it will be the new PR lady announced first? Then she will have her work to do!

[engelo] 03/7/2013 15:18

W: and a new CEO thrown in?

[worraps] 03/7/2013 15:12

captain_kurt, post 4356, 1st July, "Rumour is we will get news on I01, I02, I03, and I04 within the next 10 days". This was confirmed by Ansana, who had heard the same. Both are trusted posters. I believe them. Only a few more days to go! Next week?

[awolagain] 03/7/2013 15:07

Lots of 230 tranches going through...Ice berg time this afternoon

[hitsha3] 03/7/2013 14:37

Going up slowly but surely.

[superg1] 03/7/2013 14:18

Test

It is the one good thing about this thread, we do try to answer concerns.

I have had many shares pointed out to me, and you very rarely get a sensible response if you post with an alternative view, or pick up on the minor details.

Most often it's like being in the wrong stand in a footy match and celebrating a goal scored by your team.

On rns's and reading them properly, I had a bit of scan around threads this am including the CR top trader thread.

SLE news said 126 barrels per minute, akin to that of the US. Yhen some jumped on that with 'wow' type posts.

The news was on about their fracture method of water at 126 barrels per minute.

You can see how quickly that could have gone all wrong for those piling in.

A 181,000 bpd oil well would have caught my attention too. lol

[diggulden] 03/7/2013 13:58

Interesting on L2 today. Not taking much in the way of volume to shift the price, but as you can see, this PM's buying pressure has moved us back to level and not too much to stop us finishing in the blue.

[testuser123] 03/7/2013 13:42

Maca - I'd just like to chip in and say I quite enjoyed covering the basics again. I commend your honesty irrespective of the fact that you decided against investing here. If you decide to revist then feel free to ask anything you want.

[superg1] 03/7/2013 13:37

Maca

As I said when you first appeared, intense research looking for negatives are welcome. I spent months doing it (March 11 on), but had no-one to share views with back then, other than CK nagging me to look deeper (while he sipped cold beer)

Some dismiss the AIM full stop, the fact you spent so much time looking speaks volumes and there is no harm waiting until a further de-risk of the business.

I have dozens on my list, that I have been waiting for that factor for years.

As and when I think they are about to break onto the scene, I dig further.

Talking of which, what a sod ITM have been recently, good rns after good rns, running the price up, then todays rns, of 'oh by the way'.

I wasn't in, it's just one on my watch list.

[master rsi] 03/7/2013 13:30

diggulden

thanks

Broker could not get it on the normal online trade and I had to wait almost 2 minutes to go around an finaly got it.
my buy got the "AT" moving

I thought the problem was due to only 228 shares at offer 159.50p

[diggulden] 03/7/2013 13:13

Master RSI: Is it showing here?



03/07/2013 12:42 2,000 @ 159.5

[master rsi] 03/7/2013 13:10

re - L2 firming up...

Is this way since 12.42pm @ 159.25p, were buys are not showing at ADVFN ( my buy is not showing around that time )

[diggulden] 03/7/2013 12:51

Good luck to you Maca, you have raised your concerns in a well written and polite way, a welcome change. I agree that there is stil a lot to prove but I firmly believe this will be a huge success. Time will tell. All the best.


L2 firming up...

[superg1] 03/7/2013 12:51

Always up for looking for the tripwires up, but at some point you have to decide to invest or move on.

If I gain negative view of a company, I don't invest, there are plenty of others to look at.

I looked into SQM and the others, and also exchanged comms with them to get points covered.

It was a recent revisit to that old ground that gave me a doh! moment, that I have yet to mention. Hence I think IOF will disappear into someone else's pocket.

We'll see if Maca spots it.

[maca1212] 03/7/2013 12:48

Hmm,

I think I have probably been posting here too much, and will now return to my subterranean den for a while. It would be fair to say I have firmed against IOF as I have conducted more research, IMO the opportunity is certainly real but the business model is new (as is the opportunity) and as yet to my mind unproven.

Good luck to all LTH - I may at some point be joining your ranks, and thanks for the illuminating and educational discussions.

M