Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[nellyb] 02/7/2013 16:52

maca, have you bought any of these yet or are you still carrying out dd?

[superg1] 02/7/2013 16:51

Yep, we can just make it up and say well heads, BUT they said 27 RIGS can be seen from the tower.

There are a number O and G companies in the area with land.

Mid-states acquired Eagle energy, and more recently acquired Panther energy, both of which are active in the area.

[sandbag] 02/7/2013 16:50

Maca1212,

For the depth of drilling in the Mississippi there are truck and trailer sized rigs which can handle those depths. I believe the horizon from a rowing boat is at five miles i.e. in 360 degrees a 10 mile diameter. Assuming the area around IO2 is fairly flat and you stand on top of the plant what would your area of sight be? So it is not unreasonable to say that 27 derricks could be seen.

[neddo] 02/7/2013 16:37

nice finish

[maca1212] 02/7/2013 16:17

Hmm,

Well heads or wells might be more accurate, but even then I think you'd have to be in a helicopter.

As to volumes, Midstate's average Boe/d in q1 2013 was 9,468. At a presumed cut of 10% (i.e. 90% water) that's 95kbwpd.

They have 5 disposal wells, so an average per SWD well of 19Kbwpd, But as the IP declines that means that the water being sent to a specific well is likely to diminish. I believe there also might be an issue with brine temperature if the sections being drilled are further away from the disposal site (which is close to where I believe the IOF plant(s) is(are) likely to be located).

On the bright side the infill program will deliver more brine (60-70 new wells in 2013 with a brine IP of say 3-5kbwpd each so something approaching 180 to 350kbwpd) , but on the negative side as we have seen, the addition of new wells (or refrack of existing wells) is likely to disrupt production.

Peak production of brine will be governed by a large number of variables, including how good MidStates get at drilling for higher oil cuts as their experience and detailed knowledge of the play evolves.

Decline rate is about 70% after 1 year (i.e. a well producing 5kbwpd on initial production can be expected to be producing 1500bwpd after 1 year).

M

[engelo] 02/7/2013 16:15

Believe latest tactic is to drill multiple wells from a single rig, but others here will know better than I do.

[dragonsteeth] 02/7/2013 16:03

27 rigs does seem an inordinately high number , maybe its 27 "well heads" that can be seen.

[testuser123] 02/7/2013 16:00

Sounds right from memory, although I don't think Chris was just referring to midstates, and you can see a (very) long way in Oklahoma. I think it was more about giving an indication of the overall level of drilling activity rather than specific wells which they were hooking up.

[noli] 02/7/2013 16:00

maca, The 27 rig comment has been confirmed by others, so who's got the other 22?

[diggulden] 02/7/2013 15:56

Maca, did you attend the AGM? I think the 27 rig comment was made by dr Fay and maybe even backed up with a photo? Someone who attended the AGM can confirm.

[maca1212] 02/7/2013 15:52

Noli,

Midstates have 5 rigs, if someone can see 27 rigs from IO#2 then they are likely to be on something.......

M

[n3tleylucas] 02/7/2013 15:51

"Is there a connection between the recent share price drop and a possible t/o attempt?"

No, but there's a link between being too high and the drop.

[the librarian] 02/7/2013 15:37

I think it happened because it could jamonit.

[the librarian] 02/7/2013 15:24

Was thinking of changing it to MiniMe Digg, but that space is reserved for the Iosorbs.

[superg1] 02/7/2013 15:11

I fear the T/O situation more than any other, so work that one out for yourselves.

Obviously those things can take some time, and I know who I was unwittingly in contact with.

However for the next few weeks and months all we need to focus on is the roll out.

[scrutable] 02/7/2013 15:00

The Librarian 29 Jun'13 - 07:21 - 4270 .........

...............Scrutable's Black swan came into the picture, if anyone could have predicted it all, i.e. Lance, delays, poor RNS, attack on the s/b's etc; in short order then they are indeed a clever person. This is a good growth company.

..............................................................................

Black swans, as per Lance's affliction, are by definition extremely rare. The Black Swan initiated fear and encouraged the shorter. The rest followed 'as night follows day'.

The Bear fodder has been a mix of the normal hazards of growth investing which can generally be classed as slippage. Apart from timing nothing has changed for the worst in the prognosis for IOF.

If anything the AGM indicated areas where things have got even better for example
1) confirmation of the reducing Opex now probably in single figures,
2) the super high margins on etching gases,
3) the increased roll out and
4)the probability of much higher production yield per plant by careful selection of sites.
There are still some hazards of execution - the first US built glass fibre (?)non titanium plant needs to be de-risked by successfull commissioning, and the new production teams have yet to prove their ability to surmount the normal problems of start-up to schedule and within budget. But these are not existential and my expectation that the share price will stay ahead of ASOS in the steepness of its rate of growth is unimpaired.

Those who scoff at my hyper confidence in the future will I am certain look silly by October 2014 , if not much, much earlier.

[noli] 02/7/2013 15:00

Well lib, i think they will get one in, as they will want to see what its like and before winter sets in imho.

[n3tleylucas] 02/7/2013 14:57

diggs,

If you replace IOF with GKP or XEL in your 4497 link, you get a similar search thread.

[freshvoice] 02/7/2013 14:57

Takeover .lets all join in!

[diggulden] 02/7/2013 14:57

Lib,

Can you change your nickname to The 'I want a mini this year' Librarian please ;)

[diggulden] 02/7/2013 14:56

Yea I figured that bit out Test! ;)

Just never seen it before and do regular google searches for 'Iofina', presumably a new feature by ADVFN to improve SEO.

[the librarian] 02/7/2013 14:55

I like that thought too noli, they will be banging them in throughout the summer and autumn. Wonder how they are getting along with the mini's? Would like to see at least one on the road by the end of the year.