Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bogg1e] 23/6/2015 19:51

Monty are you sure about your assertion that indian import data is months behind?

hxxp://www.seair.co.in/crude-iodine-import-data.aspx

The most recent addition to the data is from 3 days ago and appears to relate to current imports. Glad to be corrected. Cheers

[kaos3] 23/6/2015 19:28

Becoming leading world producer takes some capacity. Capacity will absorb cash until capacity is built.And prudent management will use company's own cash flow to expand as hinted. It is a good plan imo

[superg1] 23/6/2015 19:03

Btw

I found a list of water rights for the Pampa Hermosa area. SQM seem to be the main rights holder along with someone called etta (something like that). I thought etta would suffer too but then found they supply the drinking water, so etta won't be losing rights.

[superg1] 23/6/2015 18:59

Kaos
'No free cash flow for years' ?

There are a number of variables where it could be substantial, all spelt out in detail.

And yes mystic meg is needed for price rises. However that SQM rights news was found by accident while looking for something else, as the main topic was Pampa Hermosa which was a new name for me.

We don't have to wonder what happens to iodine prices when supplies get short.

SQM (bless them) had the market over back then too as they had inventory to cover the Cosayach shortage. They claimed high prices due to lack of supply and cashed in their inventory.

An earthquake and a court order was easy for end users to spot. The current circs are hidden from their view.

I'll be watching for any news on Chile, currently that is the way to potentially stay ahead of the game. I think enough pointers have been given, now it's up to folks to keep em peeled.

[kaos3] 23/6/2015 18:57

MP - you are right. I can not see the future. But DJ transportation index is down, shipping index is down etc. That tells me about decreased industrial production. It is about survival in Chile so they will go for cash and not profits and will keep selling iodine just to get to the cash. Also dollar is strong and other iodine exporters currency is which on that basis IOF has to be 10 - 30% better just to be even. etc In long run this will make IOF stronger like Swiss or Japanese producers

All this takes some time to sort out. Months not weeks imho

[monty panesar] 23/6/2015 18:43

Che,

I agree with almost everything you say but I don't want the company taking excessive risks if it could compromise shareholders long term returns. If the rebuild of IO1 is delayed a couple of months until the inventory/supply agreement is put in place then that makes sense IMHO.

[monty panesar] 23/6/2015 18:27

Kaos3,

Unless you are mystic meg then us mere mortals will only know bout the iodine price moving up about 2 months after move up since the Indian tracker websites are that far behind. The price of iodine could have spiked last week on the back of the SQM news but we might be blissfully unaware.

There seems a very good chance the price will rise in next few weeks/months whether it will be an uptick or a spike will depend largely what is going on in Chile.
  23 Jun'15 - 16:45 - 34113 of 34116   0   0

No II until the iodine prices go up. Why buy before that?

[che7win] 23/6/2015 17:35

I like to talk straight.

Meb, management speak and reality are two different things. They have yet to demonstrate that they have the vision to be a leading iodine producer and understandably they have been hampered by a catalogue of issues, a lot self imposed.

The killer at the AGM was a rule out of any plants during 2015 and indeed a reduction of the existing number.
That takes away adding a 'growth' factor in the share price .for the next few months.

Without new plants, we rely on iodine price recovery. I think $40 iodine price is a fair compensation for producers right now, that may come quicker than expected after buyers have become complacent / accustomed to low and falling iodine prices. Who knows, we have waited a while for iodine to rise, it is level priced, the more it stays level the bigger the jump - just look at FLYB for an instrument that stays level for a prolonged time and then breaks out.

Sure, we are still tweaking, but that really isn't enough, we need good news and news that will change the figures - management did not bring enough to the table at the AGM to excite the market.

[meb123] 23/6/2015 16:59

Well Katta, who knows where will be . I seem to recall that in one of their RNS's last year, they said they are going to be the worlds leading iodine producer. Perhaps a tad optimistic .. but I like to think IOF will be in a better place by then !

[kattatogaru] 23/6/2015 16:53

Meb123 - either that or it will just drift down... and down... My holdings are locked in a box and will come out for a dusting sometime in 2018 I think.

[kaos3] 23/6/2015 16:45

No II until the iodine prices go up. Why buy before that?

[meb123] 23/6/2015 16:35

Rob- yes hopefully things will be a lot clearer within 2 years ! . As for the production figures again one can virtually predict whats gonna happen to the share price . I assume they will be good figures and a beat ( i think its planned that way ) . The share price will spike to say 30-33p then drift downwards again towards 25p in the absence of any other news .

[tackems] 23/6/2015 16:35

Fair cop Spike_1, from one Mike to another I'll stop posting now and see what all those T20's do!

[kaos3] 23/6/2015 16:30

One negative is - no free cash flow for years. eg no divi. But still undervalued, most shares in steady hands (churn happened going down), solid management, market on its way to stabilisation.

One more - strong dollar vs other weak currencies for a few quarters.

[roboben] 23/6/2015 16:30

Meb - Well, at least we should have the Q2 production figures within 2/3 weeks.

I'm hoping things will look a lot better within a couple of years. That would take me to my 5 years worth of association with this company.

[roboben] 23/6/2015 16:25

Beercap - I'm tempted to say -

That's life, Jim and (unfortunately) just as we know it!

[meb123] 23/6/2015 16:23

Trouble with this share is that there are too many unknowns. The market may react positively to any good news eg good production figs, but fatigue sets in quickly and he share price will drift downwards ..untill the next set of news which may be good or bad ( and unfortunately there is a fair amount of bad news sadly). I am used to it and resigned to keeping it for 4/5 years !

[spike_1] 23/6/2015 16:21

Even the Fincap report gives a 77% gain from this share price level within 12 months without any expansion and any water.

Best wishes - Mike

[beercapafn] 23/6/2015 16:11

Kaso3... I also am traveling this journey...

I hold the fame of buying the top of the market £ 2.67 a share.

jim

[kaos3] 23/6/2015 16:04

And again - share price goes against superb research conclusion.

I would buy based on the last weeks BB activity and would be loosing again. Should I buy based on superb research confirming value? I did so in several shares and I am waiting for 5 or more years and nothing!!!

BTW Your IOF research keeps me invested here. Big hank you

[joeblogg2] 23/6/2015 15:53

Meanwhile the share price continues to go down :(( Lets hope the water news is overturned quickly or the iodine price starts to increase

[roboben] 23/6/2015 15:48

Tackems - Thanks for that. So, we should see increased output beyond that from the tweaking of existing plants earlier than I was expecting. Good.

[spike_1] 23/6/2015 15:47

I am not nearly so sure there will be no more construction. They talked of possible off take agreements over and above their currant small scale sales - hence building an inventory reserve of which they spoke.

A deal may well enable them to move IO1 sooner rather than later. Their hesitance right now is based simply on the current flat price of iodine.

Best wishes - Mike

Edit: your recent posts tackem have done wonders for the share price!

[tackems] 23/6/2015 15:38

Hi Roboben,

They categorically said no new plants this year but my understanding with IO1 (or IO7 if you prefer) is that dismantling and reassembly will take the rest of the year coupled with the ordering and fabrication of new steelwork, concrete pouring including new embedment plates to take the steelwork footprints, procurement of items they cannot use from IO1 together with new items found in efficiency tweeking - all these take time. So maybe we can expect the powering up of the new site (dependent of electrical changes)early months of next year (probably). They did say that there should not be the problem in OK in overwinter construction that they would have in Montana.
All this is based on my years of construction of major plant components and don't forget they said goodbye to their construction manager didn't they. I should have offered as my tools are still in the garage!!

Hope this helps...