Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 26/11/2014 13:57

Why is the share price a worry. The share price is controlled by haphazard headless chickens assisted at times by a bunch of con merchants.

The business is something entirely different.

I'm not one to hang around on share if the business doesn't look right.

It was this price recently with the flappers thinking the lies may be true about production warnings coming. That was a lie of course.

After that came a bit of buying perhaps as the water permit edged nearer and it went into the 40's.

Those buys were no doubt short term folk trying to make a bet on water news. They would have been waiting until mid December for that news anyway even if there had been no objections. Had they read the various links they would know that.

Many of those bets were for news post 1st December, possibly within days of that. It wouldn't have happened. I had 16th/17th December in mind as the most likely date for very good reasons.

I certainly wasn't going to buy any until the objections period was clear with no objections. That's nothing to do with my belief on likely success objection or not, but down to the lemmings. I'd rather pay more and stay away from the herd chaos.

I understand why they do it, but I just stay out of the way.

If that objection isn't considered valid, knowing the processes and time scales as it stands (after digging) the permit awarded rns could arrive on 16th/17th December.

The only difference is the share price is lower, if I want to buy.

The good thing about the objection is that sellers assumed it's valid so the valid objection sellers have gone. It may well not be which means a few of us will get what we consider to be a bargain.

For all we know it could be a numpty from over here that put in an objection form. It doesn't matter if all it had was their xmas shopping list on it. If it was on the right form and they paid the $25 it would get recorded as received in that objection box on the website.

Perhaps someone did and profited from it, perhaps they did't and it's a genuine Montana resident worried about frogs crossing the road near the intended depot site. We don't know.

What I do know for sure is that currently, it could be as described above, as it has not been reviewed yet to see if it is a valid objection.

[che7win] 26/11/2014 13:55

more cheap shares for anyone that wants them.

[jbe81] 26/11/2014 13:33

More cheap shares for Mr B

[che7win] 26/11/2014 13:23

I really shouldn't need to repeat myself.

My previous post made it clear:

"The thing to note is that nearly all the OPEC producers are producing at prices too low to cover their expenditure.

Saudi is the big swing producer, they can produce at $30pb but they need $92 to cover their country's expenditure costs."

[cyberbub] 26/11/2014 12:37

Che those arent the operating breakevens (which are much lower), but the price the goverments need to support their national budgets.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 26/11/2014 12:35

That's misleading.

The figures you quote are not production costs at all but are based on governmental spending commitments... budgets.

Quote actual production costs and you'll see that the oil price can collapse to much lower levels and still be profitable for many emerging economies.

Of course cutting spending plans will lead to more uprisings in dictatorships.

The rise in NG production will probably be the final nail in oil's bloated coffin...

Oh, and $50 oil would be a massive boost to the global economy, so a very good thing.

Finally, good to see this falling to a more realistic level, 25-30 probably about right for now.

[che7win] 26/11/2014 12:19

OPEC 12 Oil price break-even:

Iran: $140
Venezuela: $121
Algeria: $121
Nigeria: $119
Ecuador: $117
Iraq: $106
Angola: $98
Saudi A: $93
Libya: $90
----------------
Kuwait: $75
UAE: $70
Qatar: $65

[y1phr] 26/11/2014 11:53

Good opportunity to buy.

[woodpeckers] 26/11/2014 11:13

Ridiculous to think that if we didn't have the water interest the share price would probably be well north of here by now! Oh well, I'm sure we will all be glad of it before much longer.

[che7win] 26/11/2014 10:40

Boggle,
Slickwater is one option, but it couldn't be as low as that.

[bogg1e] 26/11/2014 10:38

SG, sorry been away so rushing through the posts. Regarding the objection to the water permit. You mention "15 days" once an objection is received. is this the extra time the bureau adds to the deadline before a decision is made to award or deny? Do we know how much longer this decision will add to the process? Thanks.

[bogg1e] 26/11/2014 10:36

Che, didnt sg1 mention something about slickwater fracking dropping costs to as low as $15 per barrel?

[che7win] 26/11/2014 10:34

Btw,
My personal view is that OPEC won't cut production tomorrow.

[che7win] 26/11/2014 10:19

Bocker,
I wouldn't write off ridicules concern entirely.

The thing to note is that nearly all the OPEC producers are producing at prices too low to cover their expenditure.

Saudi is the big swing producer, they can produce at $30pb but they need $92 to cover their country's expenditure costs.

After the Arab spring, most Middle east country's appeased their populations with generous social welfare.

Venezuela needs $125 pb, Iran needs $140.

Russia met OPEC Yesterday.

OPEC is in disarray as most of them need higher prices and to pump at current rates so they are looking to Saudi to make a cut.

I reckon they need to cut 500k to 1 million barrels tomorrow, but they aren't a united cartel at the best of times.

You have to remember the cause of all this - US fracking.

I reckon our suppliers will be very keen to ensure we are supplied so we can cut their costs, but fracking can continue down to $60 pb, some say $50 depending on location.

[rogerbridge] 26/11/2014 09:37

As has been said before, IOF have years and years supply of brine so I do not see a problem. The oil price is low but it will not be permanently low in the future,
The world is using more and more oil demand will exceed production in the years to come.
Anyhow, a lower oil price is good for the world economy and therefore must be good for IOF chemical division

[ridicule] 26/11/2014 09:10

We are all pre-occupied with the water permit, but I am beginning to be concerned over the oil price. OPEC are saying they are unlikely to cut production when they meet tomorrow because, at the current low oil price, US fracking becomes much less attractive to US operators. They say there will be a regulating effect on the oil price if fracking drops off without OPEC having to intervene.

Iofina have a very symbiotic relationship with fracking and this could be another pointer to weak share price.

[superg1] 26/11/2014 08:47

spidey

No need that is on the back burner, and probably of significant interest to suitors in the sector as it's unique.

Whether it will create opportunities for someone is guesswork.

Talking of the law. The water bureaus themselves are breaching water laws as an emergency temporary measure as supply isn't meeting demand.

Allowing irrigation rights owners to sell water for industrial use breaks water laws.

All of the US fisheries permits can legally be upgraded to industrial use. You can upgrade the use but not downgrade.

The vast majority of permits are for irrigation and irrigation permits can not by law be used for anything else. Except of course when a frac boom arrives and without providing the temporary emergency measure it would grind to a halt.

Most irrigation permits are from groundwater sources, a source they don't want used for fraccing.

[rogerbridge] 26/11/2014 08:34

I remember speaking to a lawyer many years ago about justice and court cases, he said it has nothing to do with justice but who has the best case and wins the argument.
Back to IOF and water, remember we turned down (thankfully) $10,000,000 not so long ago and anyone who thinks that water will not transform IOF is an idiot.

IOF have been through a hearing crossed the T's and dotted the i's. We won all arguments and fully satisfied the authorities.