Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 14/10/2014 20:18

Don't be silly mate, if the iodine price falls then the price you get for the derivatives falls too, unless you control the market, which you don't.

[crosseyed] 14/10/2014 20:03

superg1,

Re your excellent post 25985, just one small disagreement: I doubt that IOChem are yet turning out Iodine in the low 20's ($/kg). I doubt that they have averaged lower than about $28/kg over the past year though I do not doubt that the low 20's will be achieved once the IOsorb plants start producing at something close to their design potential - volume is the key to low unit production cost. I doubt that sub-$20/kg is likely unless Mini-Iosorb units are introduced (which I understand rely on finishing capacity from the larger plants). Nevertheless, $28/kg is still substantially less than market rates which in the short term makes the market share price almost irrelevant to IOF whilst they use most of the Iodine they produce to manufacture derivatives.

c

[superg1] 14/10/2014 17:42

Sancler

I totally agree but ...............

[sancler] 14/10/2014 17:40

On water, agree notice likely this week, but DNRC already said it will be a 45 day notice period.

"Individuals will have 45 days to submit an objection under § 85-2-308, MCA, after the application has been published
in the newspaper" from

[che7win] 14/10/2014 17:29

Forgot to say, the difference between TUNG and IOF market cap is about £250m, I know that I'd rather be in the profitable one.

As for broker notes, they don't have any better idea on profits than anyone else, I'm surprised they are followed.

When the iodine price rises, IOF's profits will gear up exponentially with it's core fixed costs.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 14/10/2014 17:27

Anyway at least oil prices are still tanking, good news here. Isn't it?

'Saudi Arabia’s apparent willingness to let crude prices fall to damage its competitors will test the capital markets’ support for US producers. It is shaping up to be the North American industry’s toughest examination since the shale revolution started to revive US oil production in 2009.' FT

Is that good news here?

[freshvoicem] 14/10/2014 17:13

Nutters really is working overtime this week, must be payday soon for him, or is he still on benefits!

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 14/10/2014 17:10

Can I join the private MB Graham? Then we can chat about short charts?

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 14/10/2014 16:47

QFI have got a pretty good private MB Graham.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 14/10/2014 16:46

What chat about short charts? You mean on the private MB Graham?

[superg1] 14/10/2014 16:23

I'd go for a date appearing this week and a shot in the dark of 30 days public notice period.

[magwich] 14/10/2014 16:13

Has anyone got an estimated date when the period of objection on the water rights will be over, when we will get full rights?

[superg1] 14/10/2014 16:02

I note all the chat about the position on those short chart has been more or less static for weeks with a very slight drop in positions.

[roundup] 14/10/2014 15:50

Enough is enough for ACT, I put up with his drivel for far too long. This board is a lot more satisfactory after I filtered him/her.

[superg1] 14/10/2014 14:56

Che

The simplified view for me is a lock down on their current circs.

6 plants in play with final adjustments being made, that should comfortably meet or exceed their chemical division need.

It's said the dead wood has been stripped out aggressively with 1.5 to 2 mill of savings in H2 on costs (those will be mainly fixed costs).

If you just take 500mt and push it all through the chem div thinking $15 per kg derivative clear profit overall then that is $7.5 mill profit.

They have converted from buying it on the highs of $65 to $75 per kg to producing it in the low 20's at those rates, with a view to getting under $20 per kg costs.

The one thing about iodine is that even with the very high prices demand kept climbing. Some end uses switched to B grade alternative options on costs, but as the price drops they return.

India stopped importing on the High prices and seem to be importing strongly now it's dropped.

Cosayach wells shut down, SQM mine and a plant shutdown (2500-3000mt), RB in the poo and trading suspended.

All of these Chile issues were forecast way back on here. The water reforms will be a full blown size 12, into the gonads for them.

I mentioned the run with 6 way back if necessary, it means profit and growth of the bank balance.

They are in a position to create profit by standing still.

Hence they are carefully considering their strategic review. They have clearly pointed out they have lucrative sites, just one of those would push costs down and profits up.

RB holders hope the iodine mine will sell. The NVP if you now work it using the experts own calculations, makes it a liability not an asset.

SQM and co would relish the mine closing down as it means one short term pain in the backside cheap iodine supplier has gone.

End users may be driving hard bargains for lower prices, but I suspect the boot will be on the other foot in H1 2015, with some end users being told 'tough go try and produce your own'.

[superg1] 14/10/2014 13:53

News just out


IIROC Trading Halt - RBI


TORONTO, Oct. 14, 2014 /CNW/ - The following issues have been halted by IIROC:

Company: RB Energy Inc.

TSX Symbol: RBI

Reason: Pending review of fundamental change by listing exchange

[che7win] 14/10/2014 13:45

All my shares are bought and paid for. It doesn't matter to me what the bears say.

Act rates TUNG which is forecast to make £16m losses in 2015, I.e it's 2017 before they expect to publish profit.

Unlike them, we are profitable over the last few months.

Take a look at tangable assets and you will see our value is much higher on that metric.

Iodine is making money.

Water valuation we will soon see covers most of the market cap.

Using the ACT argument, Orange mobile was worth nothing for first 10 years of its life because it didn't make money, so why did vodaphone gobble it up along with mannesmann?

Let the company build out its value and chill.

[stevo2011] 14/10/2014 12:59

Stick to the value of special brew , white lightning and kestrel not the MV of companies.you just regurgitate the same topics time and time again. Last week you said RNS was coming for funding @ 20p as they had cash flow problems , then the week before that they wouldn't receive the water permit decision. What next ? There will be no. World demand for iodine

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 14/10/2014 12:33

Well MELLY, it's not me saying 1p of earnings for 2015 mate, think it's your own broker?

£60m MV is therefor way too high. Wouldn't you agree?

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 14/10/2014 12:29

I disagree. I value the iodine sides at £16m, so water is being valued at a whopping £45m! Wow!

[deadend] 14/10/2014 12:24

Current share price makes water permit worth zilch!

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 14/10/2014 12:17

Am I correct in my thinking that your broker estimates a loss of £0.83m for 2014 and a profit of just £1.6m for 2015? Just 1p of earnings for 2015? A forward p/e ratio of 45?

Oh dear.

[dorset64] 14/10/2014 12:11

Correct SG and this report not only covers the current water status for the US, but also the future plus all 10 other countries included.