Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 14/10/2014 12:00

Dorset
Exactly and the first thing to go will be aquifer supplies as they deplete faster than they replenish. Livestock and irrigation relies on the aquifers over huge areas in the US. Most frack supply currently comes from aquifers.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 14/10/2014 11:59

Good to see this back @45, still 200% overvalued by my reckoning. Careful.

[dorset64] 14/10/2014 11:55

SG, there is a new report just out by the World Resource Institute (WRI) entitled 'Global Shale Gas Development: Water Availability & Business Risk.

It goes into great detail and states '38% of the worlds shale resources face high to extremely high water stress or arid conditions.

the report also evaluates water availability for every shale play in the 11 countries either currently operating, or those most likely to pursue hydraulic fracturing including Australia, Canada, China, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, UK & the US.

One of the 4 main sections covers the topic 'Minimize freshwater use & engage with corporate water stewardship to reduce impacts on water availability'.

Andrew Steer President & CEO of WRI states in it 'This analysis should serve as a wake up call for countries seeking to develop shale gas. Energy development & responsible water management must go hand in hand'....

[madchick] 14/10/2014 11:02

I guess if India is stockpiling cheap iodine while they can, they won't be ordering for a while once the price rises. I don't know if that would delay a price rise in iodine (although a price rise at some stage is inevitable, as far as I can see).

[chumbo] 14/10/2014 10:17

Thanks SG. I was just trying to decipher whether they were dumping good product or selling substandard product at a discount. Not that I'm sure it matters now if they are going to leave the picture. It will be interesting to see what happens to their production capacity as I'm sure we would prefer to see the heap leach out of the equation as well as the ALP.

[superg1] 14/10/2014 10:05

Yes and the 'industry' said it was Sirocco.

RB impact details a below 2012 to the present.

In 2012 due to the iodine shortage they sold all they produced.

In 2013 they sold 478mt (h2 they stopped supplying)

In Q2 this year sales took off at a time the market talks of an over-supply situation which is hitting prices.

Sirocco sold a record 514mt in Q2 way beyond what they have achieved historically, and 204m more than they produced for that quarter.

That left them with just over 600mt in the inventory and probably 250mt produced in Q3.

RB hit serious cash issues and announced iodine sales would be used to support the lithium mine.

India their previous main buyer starts importing iodine at apparent record rates at the same time that RB become desperate for cash. Apparent large orders 10 to 15% lower prices than other imports in India.

Oct 3rd RB reports no backers for financing. 1st, 4th and 7th Oct 3 x 21.6mt imports for India, an unusual event and all at discounts below the going rate.

An import the same week from Chile for 20mt shown as a price of 15% higher than the 21.6 imports.

The 20mt 15% higher priced shipment is shown as crude iodine v the cheap iodine shown as 99.5% minimum purity.

Sources tell me RB are selling cheaply into India. But I don't need that information to conclude that RB are slashing their prices in desperation to get cash. They are clearly responsible for 'apparent' iodine price drops.

What we do know is that they have a limited supply left, when their inventory has gone their supply ability drops significantly. Their supply ability could drop to zero very shortly. So from a glut in Q2 to Q3 of around 1400mt to potentially zero by the year end.

Once RB are gone or their inventory the pendulum should swing the other way, potentially violently in 2015 as SQM have dumped 2500 to 3000 mt of production and Cosayach hit hard too.

The fly in the ointment over the last 2 quarters has been RB.

[chumbo] 14/10/2014 09:23

Excuse my wonky memory, but wasn't there some iodine around with quality issues?

[superg1] 14/10/2014 08:10

Gad

Note the last post.

Those 21.6 mt regular India iodine imports used to be about once a month and often relate to the cheap iodine from Chile. The obvious 'suspect' was RB who are now more desperate than ever as they seek to fend off creditors buying themselves time with the court application.

India imports on zauba show the 21.6 figure imported on the 1st 4th and 7th of October. Just short of 65 mt in one week. There is so another 20mt at a higher price in the same week.

For folks that that don't follow the imports that sudden surge is pretty much unique for this year.

The timing of it seems to suggest it is RB dumping iodine cheaply as fast as they can.

Add the factor in that Q4 is generally a slow down period for raw iodine, yet this this the highest import rate for India for some time.

It seems someone in India is smart enough to grab cheap iodine sharpish. I'm hoping the iodine import significant surge, which took off in July equates to a rapid depletion of RBs inventory.

India was one of their main buyers pre suspension of supply.

When they stopped supplying India imports took a big dive. Now they are supplying India imports have taken off. When RB hit the serious trouble India imports climbed rapidly compared to previous months.

For July through October it looks like India will import over 800mt.

Compared to Oct 2013 with data only available up to the 10th for this year, the imports are already well past double of Oct 13.

The signs are looking good for the end of cheap iodine from RB.

[superg1] 14/10/2014 06:45

RB Energy to File for Creditor Protection

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Oct. 13, 2014) - RB Energy Inc. (the "Company" or "RBI") (TSX:RBI) (OTCQX:RBEIF) announces that, in light of the Company's current financial situation, to facilitate an orderly restructuring of its business and operations, the Board of Directors of the Company has approved a filing on Tuesday, October 14, 2014, for an Initial Order to commence proceedings under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act (the "CCAA") from the Quebec Superior Court. The terms and conditions of the restructuring have not yet been determined.

The Company expects that the Initial Order will provide that while the Company and its subsidiaries are under CCAA protection, all proceedings on the part of their creditors will be stayed. The Company will provide further updates as developments occur.

[angel of the north] 14/10/2014 00:23

I see tinnies of white lightning are on the 'whoopsie' shelf again.

[rogerbridge] 13/10/2014 23:03

Sounds about right SG. There are going to be some bargains around particularly in small caps. Time to pick a short list of prospects to invest with a long term view.
IOF has exceptional prospects going forward and has to be at the top of the list.
Looking at your FUM,if Blue Diamond takes off it could be very interesting.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 13/10/2014 22:52

Yeah, keep banging the drum Graham, lead 'em all down that drain mate ;))

[superg1] 13/10/2014 22:49

Dunno Mr B but drivel it is, perhaps our pickled squatter means this....

sounds good to me.

That being said, an unexpected decline in fuel costs as well as the beginning of a dip in the food prices have given U.S. consumers a jolt of good news well ahead of the all important holiday shopping season.

In addition, a rise in the value of the Dollar relative to the Euro and Yen could keep the recent deflation/disinflation advantage for U.S. shoppers going for quite a while longer. In the end, that prospect could boost earnings expectations for futures quarters and, in turn, be a welcomed plus for stock prices.

Over the short-run, however, the technical set-up of the Dow Jones Industrial average suggests that the pullback in stocks is not yet over with an eventual test of key trend line support at 15,725 possible. Putting things into perspective, a test of that level would represent a modest 9% decline from its September 19 high, implying that the current setback is nearing the halfway point. At the very least, such a scenario could finally give investors the buying opportunity that they have long awaited.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 13/10/2014 22:45

When the bear market is over, months, maybe years... this one will not be here. Banksy will be in so much trouble financially that he won't be in any position to bail this out.

Should be a laugh ;)

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 13/10/2014 22:40

You'll see what Wall St has to do with all your shares soon enough Banksy ;)

[mister big] 13/10/2014 22:36

What has the Dow got to do with iofina !
I have never read so much drivel in my life :)

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 13/10/2014 20:55

DOW is in free-fall, down well over 200!

[sandbag] 13/10/2014 20:15

ExPatKen,Re your post 25911:Quoted from today's Times - "The International Energy Agency's monthly oil report for September, to be published tomorrow, is likely to confirm the U.S. as the world's largest liquid petroleum producer".They aren't slowing down their production. As 1Mad replied to you the Americans want total independence wrt fuel.

[tim3416] 13/10/2014 20:11

SQM share price still dropping I see

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 13/10/2014 19:53

Remember this is a business, a producer & manufacturer of product. Now then, you do realise it has to make money? Business has to make a profit. Or you cheat, you con and you scam... you prop up the failed business with fundings each year. Sound familiar? Should do, it's been going on for years here... the con, the scam.

A business that loses money is a con, a scam.

It's true you know, even though you don't like to see it written down.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 13/10/2014 19:49

Well you say all that as if it were true. From my experience all the info here has been useless, wrong and misleading - apart from mine ;))

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 13/10/2014 19:47

My my, I wonder which post really hurt the most? Hmmm... this one?

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For those who are under the misapprehension that this is dirt cheap, let me explain rather simply why it is actually quite expensive.

It has a MV of £60m so should be making around a tenth of that in profits.

I can assure you it will make nowhere near £6m this year or next year.

It will be astonishing if it avoids a loss this year, and anything over £2m next year.

It's a £20m firm trading at £60m atm.

Worth no more than 15p on fundamentals.

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Interesting reaction.

[woodpeckers] 13/10/2014 19:47

Guys, if you don't want to filter him, please do the rest of us a favour and don't respond to his rubbish.

This is a brilliant board, full of information ,probably more than most of us have time to completely absorb, so don't allow the troll to have his way and disrupt
the passage of information from those who give generously of their time!

[spike_1] 13/10/2014 19:36

ACT - enough - filtered.