Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[cyberbub] 06/9/2014 21:41

Brucie you -are- being a bit nosey LOLI have three holdings which are all valued at about the same at present, coincidentally: FLOW, QFI and IOF, each representing 25% by value. The other 25% is spread across a few smaller and more speculative shares...Obviously that split changes from time to time...

[1madmarky] 06/9/2014 19:50

If IO 2 does get up to 300tpa at current iodine prices, that's a gross profit of $6m pa or it paying for itself in just 6 months. This is why I'm invested here. If as expected the price of iodine goes up then it just gets stupid. And if we can have a couple more IO2 plants then we will be where we thought we could be when Lance did the investors presentation. Just a little more frustration to wait through.

[brucie5] 06/9/2014 18:40

Cyber, nosey question, but what proportion of your folio is here? Small, average, large, supersize or farm..?

[cyberbub] 06/9/2014 17:27

Superg, if Iofina are operating profitably at current levels and believe a shortage is coming, I wonder whether we ourselves could consider doing a little stockpiling??

[broncowarrior] 06/9/2014 15:26

Slowly recovering here and staying under the radar, which is good.

[engelo] 06/9/2014 15:10

Don't know whether we know this, but have always assumed that IOF's iodine had a quality/purity edge over the Chileans. Is there any information on this?

PS would have thought that because we are using the same process across all plants we should at least be very consistent.

[engelo] 06/9/2014 15:05

Great work SG. Looked at the India figures myself the other day, thought they seemed a bit irregular but just didn't make the connection ;-(

[superg1] 06/9/2014 09:01

Looking at that Iodine import data for India I note the following for Chile.

Imports (rough figures)

Dec 13 3.4 mt

Jan 21 mt
Feb 32
Mar 32

Apr 119
May 36
June 75

July 280
Aug 140
Sept 52 (in 6 days)

There is an obvious big change in the amount as you move through each quarter (85mt Q1 and already 480mt this quarter with 3 weeks to go).

However if you look at Japan the rate remains constant at around 20 to 30 each month.

So India are clearly buying a lot of Iodine in recent months from Chile. We know at the end of May Cosayach got hit on their wells, but the most obvious reason for the sudden spike is RB energy.

In their news they sold less than they produced in Q1 (sold 126mt), then in Q2 we know they had sold more than they produced (314mt produced, 518 mt sold for an average of $36).

We know that RB energy are desperate for cash and they were sitting on an 800mt iodine inventory. They announced they will keep the lithium side running through sales of iodine. RB had no iodine contracts as they stopped supplying iodine in H2 last year.

The sudden surge in India iodine imports seems to directly fit in with the timing that RB energy became desperate for cash. They have suddenly found buyers for iodine in an apparent time of over-supply, when last year with demand and prices higher, they stopped supplying.

It's seems highly likely to me, that what we are seeing on the India import data is a desperate RB energy dumping their iodine inventory.

We know in July the wheel feel off for RB and they are in a critical situation re cash flow.

Now we see a sudden huge surge in iodine imports to India in July and the trend seems to be continuing.

So logic seems to suggest to me that RB/Sirocco are unloading their inventory to India who may be building their own inventory.

I'd even go as far to say that the India imports are purely down to some company realising a shortage is coming, so they are either stockpiling cheap iodine, or have plans to hold onto it and sell into the market when prices are higher.

We have said a few times, the price won't move until inventories empty. The details tend to support that.

We'll soon find out when RB announce their Q3 results. We may not have to wait that long, as their situation is so critical they may need to give out cash flow updates.

So all eyes imo should be on the RB inventory, and the India import data.

In theory if RB are continuing to off-load in bulk (they need to), then once they finish the price should start to move up.

[superg1] 06/9/2014 00:40

500 would be great at 1.4mt per day for just 20k bpd. However I suspect it's not a 500ppm site.

However at the AGM it was said they have sites for pods between 200ppm and 1000ppm.

There have also been wells with low bpd at many 1000 ppm.

As the boom develops more and more iodine rich wells will appear, and I wish I could be a mind reader to know what was in Jeff's head when he kept muttering on and about some very good leases obtained in recent times.

The new team will make the best of what was presented to them, but going forward it will be bpd x ppm that decides what and where

[1madmarky] 05/9/2014 22:31

Can't see IO6 being on 500 ppms, more likely 200 if it is the best of the bunch. Which is pretty handy if it is running at full tilt.

[che7win] 05/9/2014 21:38

Sweet,
No, IO6 is a great plant, you might also be pleasantly surprised by plant IO5 (in due time).

[sweetnodude] 05/9/2014 20:45

Okay cheers, did he really say 500? Must have nodded off for a mo. In that case I'm gonna ditch my ILUVIO#2 t-shirt and get the new lass printed!

[woodpeckers] 05/9/2014 19:51

sweet, the last update was fairly upbeat on 6:

IO#6 began full production this week. Delays in IO#6 start-up were due to Operator design changes at the tie in. The Company expects good water quality and quantity at IO#6 and therefore favorable production volumes.

[bogg1e] 05/9/2014 19:23

Feedback from the agm suggested IO6 has optimal brine and high ppms, around 500.

[sweetnodude] 05/9/2014 19:16

che,
I seem to recall LB at the AGM not exactly waxing lyrical about IO#6. In fact he was in two minds whether it was worth the extra dollars to finish the site off. What makes you think it's a darling bud?

[superg1] 05/9/2014 13:54

Che

It's not just about the oil disruption I suspect, but the constant battle of the chemical mix to maximise yields.

If you have good quality brines, then the chemical make up is a constant that can be tweaked to a consistent level.

It's that combination of things, now going in place, that probably allows them to start forecasting significant increases at io2.

On the original start up at 18.7k bpd, it seemed they were getting an average of .7mt from io2.

Reverse calculating that gives a ppm of 260/270, but they also said that on some days they hit 1mt meaning .85 for io2 and over 300ppm.

If they still have 50k bpd there and at some point move to process it all by adding pods, then at 250ppm then running for 24hrs that's near 1.8 mt.

I like the way the link up with the college has come full circle. In the Arysta days the college folk tested local wells and reported a 300ppm average. Now funding supports a link of for testing and the mapping out of the iodine resources in the area.

Io6 does sound like it has good potential. However I suspect if they do another big plant it will end up on a site like io2 as they are out there, as mentioned in previous IOF news.

The cycle of cutting costs continues and by the time they finish stripping out the fat we will then get a very good idea of the actual operating costs.

For io2 as a stand alone unit, when fully optimised, I suspect the opex will be ridiculously low, when compared to the market.

[woodpeckers] 05/9/2014 12:27

How do you know what order I have them in che? ;-)

[che7win] 05/9/2014 12:20

superg,
I think your original predictions for IO#2 will be vindicated, I have always believed in the potential for that site (and it hasn't yet shown it).

IO#6 is another exciting site, being second in the pecking order for productivity.

[phoenixs] 05/9/2014 11:57

I just hope that we will receive continuing good news including substantially rising production figures. Once they hit 60mt per month, then I will be happy with quarterly production releases.....and considering what we have been through I don't think that is asking too much.

[superg1] 05/9/2014 11:02

Many have commented on the timing of the rns. When I saw news was out, I thought it was strange to release the production update on a Friday, but then saw it was CEO news, which is equally strange just before an update.

It's hard to try and work out the timing but the views here seem to have a decent amount of common sense. EG Why announce the CEO to follow that on with "Due to frack disruption, power outages .... etc, etc.

There was no pressure to announce Tom as the CEO and tbh I think he has probably been in the role for months. For him to see if he wanted to take it on, and IOF to see whether he was suitable for the enhanced task.

So all rather puzzling re the timing, but let's hope the logic stacks up.

Who knows, perhaps the next news includes the strategy going forward, and then it makes a lot of sense to get the CEO news out there pre expansion strategy.

As for interim news, it will clearly be a mixed bag. Jan, Feb and March and perhaps April doh !!, May, June big smiles.

And for the record I will stick with my very first predictions for the potential of the io2 site (300-400+). I'm hoping following the last news that as we move through the year the new tech out in by the operator does it's job and leaves the io2 site with much better quality brine (far less oil). I am mindful they had said it was due to be completed in the following week, so the operator tech may have needed some tweaking.

Then we have io5 and 6 news to add on to see how they have been doing post start up.

It's been a tough few months for the Lance and Jeff I suspect, and all for about 25p. I would imagine there are a few more things to sort out, but with the CEO now announced, I'm guessing they have the ball rolling in the right direction.

As for pods, if they have sites where they have excess brine, and to put a pod there equates to operational efficiency then imo that's where they will go.

EG at one point they said IO2 was getting 51k bpd. If that's still the case and it's high ppm, then get some pods there, the staff and services are already in place. If it's 200ppm at io2 and 50k per day can be processed that's 1.4 mt per day when on full tilt.

[bobsworth] 05/9/2014 09:57

Pleased to see Iofina have a new CEO with knowledge and experience of the iodine business.

Let's hope his first job is to announce record monthly iodine production followed by the signing off of a long term supply agreement or two.

[sweetnodude] 05/9/2014 09:50

The Yin is good production figures to follow early next week and the Yang is no further comment until the intrims at the end of the month! GLA

[superg1] 05/9/2014 09:23

Looking it from another point of view.

If Tom Becker had come in from elsewhere then IOF have just appointed one of the top iodine experts in the US to the position of CEO.

He is the guy that has come up with the processes and new inventions.

As for who to pick, there are very few suitable candidates in the US in this industry. It's one of those businesses where (imo) you actually need someone who understands it from the grass roots, rather than some sharp-suited guy with some ideas of his own.

No spanners thrown into the works is good news, and not another salary to add either.