Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 24/8/2014 08:13

Helium-3

New to me, but if we think Helium is rare, look up Helium-3. What we go on about is Helium-4.

Helium-3 forms 1.37 parts per million of Helium-4. It went from $100 per litre few years back to $2000 per litre. That is due to the uses they found for it.

The US gov. realised they had a problem on supply demand a few years back. They can recover it from nuclear reactors, and particle accelerators, but it is found in small quantities in normal Helium production

One point re the Rudyard field Montana. That is not a natural gas Helium by-product situation like most US Helium sources. It is a nitrogen source that contains Helium.

I'm not trying to glorify Helium-3, but the fact it exists in small quantities in normal Helium, makes US Helium resources more important to the US government.

They certainly need it with growing demand (Homeland security), it's extremely rare.

That may in the future, result in the US getting very protective over any Helium resources it has. Obviously that is happening already with the federal reserve.

[mister big] 23/8/2014 20:26

Sg - this will make you laugh , received on the ship on way to Alaska -

Good, very glad to hear. Chicago was productive. Researching helium of all things today. Did you know there is a shortage of it? Made me think of mining and your connections. Enjoy relaxing!! x

Interesting comment from well connected friend .

Sg in terms of iofina and Atlantis , what do you know about there particular prospects for helium . Was any research done I can access.

Best arron

[superg1] 23/8/2014 19:30

Che

Thought about that one and the weak Chile peso, but then Chile imports which include energy hit them hard.

For the near future it's all about getting the iodine business in a solid position then the roll out strategy which may already be done. Growth is available, especially if the Chileans are suffering in the way them seem to be.
They couldn't stop bragging last year about all the expansion they has planned, now nearly a year since they fell silent, not even ioditech giving it's news update.

Water is there hovering and may well become a business generating revenue over the next year.

Meanwhile the water topic could really hurt the Chileans.

On the price and exchange rate, it's nearly as bad as it can get. But then on the iodine production situation in Chile it's been hurting them with a whole load of pain to come over the next 2 years.

Then if you take opex for IOF they are heading the right way.

Certainly a very interesting time in the iodine market. H1 2015 will be when the tide has gone out, and we will see what the situation is.

I would imagine RB energy will be looking to offload their inventory ASAP, to keep things ticking over on cash flow, to support the lithium side of things.

So my hope is with the pull back on production, and Cosayach hit on water, then the ripples of that will be felt in H1 2015.

I wouldn't wish a big earthquake on Chile, but since that one in April, they have analysed it all and believe there is a gap left. They say it could result in a huge quake in the South, and in the North near Iquique.

"Finally, only one-third of the gap was broken and the remaining locked segments now pose a significant, increased seismic hazard with the potential to host an earthquake with a magnitude of >8.5."

If that happens anytime soon over 8.5 then there will be some serious disruption.

I was surprised on the scalar the big difference in an 8.1 earthquake (April 14) and over 8.5.

EG an earthquake with a difference of 1 is around 32 times the energy released v the low rate. So 8.5 v 8.1 doesn't sound much but is multiples of an 8.1 quake.

I don't wish it on them, but the scientists think a biggy is on the way.

[engelo] 23/8/2014 13:21

Thanks SG. Looking back for map of Weil 1 to relook at geo formation. Anyone got a link?

[superg1] 23/8/2014 08:59

Enegelo

I've had some exchanges with someone in the business. It looks like there is a great opportunity for someone to grasp the nettle in the US, and tie up those helium resources over there. The federal reserve was/is covering about 35% of the world market, and 42% of the US market.

It was clearly being sold to a chosen few in previous years and someone stuck their head above the parapet to point it out it seems.

The reserve was due to close down last October when all the US gov chaos was going on. It's just as well someone stopped them as you can see what it would have happened to the helium market.

It's used for various breathing related health issues including asthma and in MRI's. They need it for diving bottles too (bends), so the closure would not have been just about price rises but health risks too,, as some simply wouldn't have been able to get hold of any.

The cheap source of helium left a market where no one was prepared to fill the gap, there was no need at all to do so with the cheap helium reserve filling the gap.

Last year the federal reserve helium was selling to gov end users at $67.75 per mcf. To non gov end users (the chosen few) $84 per mcf. Private industry was paying $200 per mcf.

So the chosen few popped along loaded up at $84 and sold it on for $200 per mcf.

That has all stopped with that auction and new rules.

The rest of the world produced 44 million cubic metres last year. The federal reserve supplied 52 million cubic metres.

You can see the massive impact closure of that reserve would have had.

So Weil if they are right with their 2 billion cf on Brainstorm's leases, at the true market end price, to the private industry, it's $400 mill of helium.

IOF seem to be in the area, and obviously we have no idea if they are sitting on helium. I have no idea yet just how far helium plays tend to extend.

Under all the circs it's a nice potential to have. The way to find out if they have helium will be to drill into those lower levels similar to the Weil 1 well.

The area is vast but historically all the drilling done over the decades doesn't go to those levels. Weil realised the potential by finding comments in one well report that did go deep, a well called BAIR.

[che7win] 23/8/2014 08:48

EPS conversion:

[engelo] 23/8/2014 00:57

SG: thanks for this and other He links. Last para:

"Lamborn also said that he and Natural Resources Chairman Doc Hastings (R-Wash.) will release a discussion draft of new legislation called "Helium 2" to "secure and encourage future production of domestic helium, ensure that helium producers have the regulatory certainty they need to explore for and produce helium on federal lands, and facilitate a private domestic market for U.S. domestic helium."

[bogg1e] 22/8/2014 16:29

meb, as far as i understand it, market makers have to hold stock because they are the trader of last resort as it were. ie if noone else will buy or sell the shares, they have to make the market themselves. I may be wrong on this though.

Secondly i think you dont appreciate the actual value of the water application. It has a basic value of $20,000 net per day, thats the equivalent of adding another ton of iodine production per day ($20k is the net value of iodine per ton to iof atm). Thats if the water is ambient, ie not heated, if heated the net margin per barrel goes up drastically and would effectively increase current revenue by about 50%. Furthermore the award of the contract, increases the liklihood of the next two contracts being awarded. The application is for 200,000 bpd, of which the first application is for 75-80k bpd. I think the share price doubling is more likely.

[neddo] 22/8/2014 15:30

and why not?

[meb123] 22/8/2014 14:21

well i guess we owe this 'large' buyer a pint then :-)
Thinking out aloud and now counting chickens etc..
but assuming we are 70p by the time of the next production update , we only need an upside of 40% to reach a quid by xmas . Perfectly feasible imo . Water accounts for 20% at least ( it fell 20% when the application was rejected). I reckon the other 20% can easily be achieved with consistency and progress with the plants .
.....Sorry jusy reassuring myself as £1 is my breakeven point lol

[che7win] 22/8/2014 14:02

Meb,
I'm pretty sure the MM's 'harvested' some shares in the 40's, they dropped it quickly to 44p, yet hardly anyone was able to buy. Then they pushed it up into the 50's, they do manipulate prices, it's needed to make a marke sometimes and fill orders.

Also, I think we have a buyer at these prices, otherwise we would have dropped today - those sells are going to a buy order. It was the same after production figures out, there was a keen buyer who lifted the share up very quickly IMHO.

[meb123] 22/8/2014 13:45

One hears a lot about the 'tricks' market makers play but I am not convinced. My understanding is that they simply match buyers and sellers and take a turn in the proccess . It is not in their interests ( and probably not allowed) to build up significant positions in any stock as that would be tantamount to propriatary trading which is a separate business line for most investment banks . They do not trade on the expectation of future news as they are not in the business of taking risk.

[woodpeckers] 22/8/2014 13:24

The market makers seem happy to soak up the sells this morning. Presumably there will be a late reported buy or the mms are stockpiling ready for future news.

[superg1] 22/8/2014 11:56

It doesn't need a CEO just progress as reported in the last rns re io2 4 and 6.
Significant points re those.

38 of the 90 days gone re water of we go by Leggit's date.

1.7mt would be nice, but if they get a good run I suspect that is within the actual best rate.

[meb123] 22/8/2014 11:52

Wondering what could next give IOF the uplift from its sticky range of 62-64p.
News of a new CEO perhaps ? ; Confirmation of 1.7mt daily rate in September ?

[meb123] 22/8/2014 11:42

Just looked up FUM . Seems to have perked up nicely today :-)

[superg1] 22/8/2014 11:13

OT

Talking about watching. I know there are some FUM guys here. There seemed to be an overhang around in recent times dragging it down.

I've no idea who the buyer/s are today, but the usual seller so far hasn't sold into it. Perhaps finally a reversal coming for FUM but DYOR, it's been a long frustrating wait.

Mr B you like Blue diamonds. :-)

[superg1] 22/8/2014 11:09

Interesting start to the day after the close last night.

The closing auction is generally the time when you get to see what a seller really has hidden as after 4.30pm the offer gets loaded etc, and equally the buyer on the bid.

20k was out on the bid at 63 but very little appeared of the offer, but the UT came in 20k at 63p when the auction closed. The 20k on the bid re-loaded.

This morning seems to follow on from that where for now it all seems quiet on the offer side.

Generally (as said before) when volumes drop, it tends to indicate shares are tight, and no action as the potential buyer can't get what they want at the price they want.

Earlier in the week I thought a tree shake was coming by the way things went on level 2 early on, but there were no takers just above 60 and bids came back in, in the same numbers that had mysteriously disappeared.

I'm just going on what I see having tracked this and other shares for some time.

Those that are in the business will know far better how the game is played, but certainly imo games are played.

I know what I would do as an MM to get some stock, but then if a strong buyer isabout it becomes much more difficult.

[superg1] 21/8/2014 18:58

"Are we there yet"

No not quite, but they continue to drop hints about what is coming re the water laws



'The proposal also calls for a reform of the country's water law so that water rights can be restricted or terminated, and for an end to perpetual water rights. Constitutional reform to prohibit ownership of water rights is also called for'


The SQM risk listed in their financial document Form 20-F

Changes in water rights laws could affect our operating costs.

We hold water rights that are key to our operations. These rights were obtained from the Chilean Water Authority (Dirección General de Aguas) for supply of water from rivers and wells near our production facilities, which we believe are sufficient to meet current operating requirements.

However, the Chilean water rights code (Código de Aguas or the ―Water Code‖) is subject to changes, which could have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition and results of operations. For example, an amendment published on June 16, 2005 modified the Water Code, allowing, under certain conditions, the granting of permanent water rights of up to two liters per second for each well built prior to June 30, 2004, in the locations where we conduct our mining operations, without considering the availability of
water, or how the new rights may affect holders of existing rights.

Therefore, the amount of water we can effectively extract based on our existing rights could be reduced if these additional rights are exercised. In addition, we must pay annual concession fees to maintain water rights we are not exercising.

These and potential future changes to the Water Code could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.


(70% plus of SQM iodine production relies on water rights of 570 litres per second at Neuve Victoria)

'Nueva Victoria operations from 4,500 to 11,000 metric tons of iodine per year and to produce up to 1.2 million metric tons of nitrates, mine up to 33 million metric tons of caliche per year and use new water rights of up to 570.8 liters per second'

You can see how these potential changes may hit SQM hard.

[neddo] 21/8/2014 18:43

2 Aug 2013 - The new patent was awarded for Iofina's technology, already in use at ... States and has been also filed in Chile and Japan shortly thereafter

[freshvoice] 21/8/2014 18:40

Maybe it was China after all not Chile?
Certainly more oil there, and offshore.

[woodpeckers] 21/8/2014 18:33

I couldn't find anything either. Take your point re whether it's worthwhile but the BOD presumably think it is worth doing so it would be interesting to hear how they are progressing with it.

Thanks for looking.

[gadolinium] 21/8/2014 18:32

Edit above

I meant 'does NOT provide a fully searchable website'

I must proof read my posts more carefully!