Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[chillpill] 22/11/2024 08:16

My thoughts:

SQM have said iodine prices high for next 2 years at least because new supply can’t match demand-all part of the greenflation story.

Deutsche Bank analyst is modelling iodine prices (for SQM) at $66 for 2025 and 2026 and $67 for 2027.

In the case of Canaccord they have iodine price at $55 for 2025&26.
CC research has EBITDA at $9.6m for 2025 and $11.8m for 2026.

They say each $1/kg increase adds $300k to EBITDA. So $9.6 becomes $12.9m for 2025 and then over $16m for 2026.


So the news from SQM is v bullish in terms of cash generation. The small negative is IOF are likely to be slightly short in the production figures for this quarter due to the new plant being delayed a few weeks.

Bottom line. Expect a PT increase by CC in next couple of months.

[riddlerone] 21/11/2024 14:24

I thought this was an interesting article

Megaport opens up Latin America to Chinese trade as US looks on




Once Chancay is fully up and running, goods from Chile, Ecuador, Colombia and even Brazil are expected to pass through it on their way to Shanghai and other Asian ports.

[davebowler] 20/11/2024 21:09

Just a reminder of the worst case, where Iodine can be a life saver.... hTTps://metro.co.uk/2024/11/20/step-by-step-guide-surviving-a-nuclear-attack-happens-22032339/

[chillpill] 20/11/2024 19:54

From SQM conference call. Calling high iodine prices for next 2 years.

“Hi Ben, this is Juan Paulo. We estimate that the market size today is around 38,000, 39,000 tons of iodine. The growth this year has been especially big due to the decrease of 2023. So we expect this year the demand is going to grow around 7%, driven mainly by the contrast media industry. We expect that that industry is going to remain growing for the rest of the decade, around 5%, 6% per year.

And regarding the new supply, sorry, regarding the new supply, the market information that is available from our competitors is showing that we may expect some new supply by the second half of 2025 and some also new supply in 2026. But we believe that that supply won't be able to catch the increase in the demand. So we expect still a strong demand and strong prices in the next couple of years due to that imbalance.”

[chillpill] 20/11/2024 17:44

Iodine is a classic example of Greenflation. As demand increases supply is unable to respond due to regulation.

SQM have admitted they alone are unable to fill the gap in extra demand and so prices will go up due to a global iodine shortage.

[beeezzz] 20/11/2024 17:15

Sadly it looks Iofina wins Turkey of the year again....with slow decline in share price ..

[gb904150] 20/11/2024 15:27

Thanks serratia.



and PPT:


SUMMARY:

Iodine: higher sales volumes (+9%), average sales prices flat to slightly
up (+0.4%)

Iodine and Derivatives: Capturing Demand Growth in High Price Environment

Global Iodine Market
• Strong demand. We expect that total demand could grow by 7% in 2024.
• Market remains tight with high prices and limited supply.

SQM Iodine & Derivatives
• We believe our sales volumes could surpass 14,500 MT in 2024.
• Average prices could increase in 4Q2024 compared to 3Q2024.

Iodine and Nitrates total capex 2024-2025: ~US$700 million, including maintenance of ~US$80 million per year

LTM1 Revenues: US$961M
LTM gross profit: $530m

Pretty staggering capex given the gross profit.

Looks like an attractive market over the next few years.

[serratia] 20/11/2024 13:32

SQM Q3 results out.

[chillpill] 19/11/2024 07:14

FWIW Iofina have a Court hearing for mineral rights/leases in Blaine County in 2 weeks time.

I have a feeling this could the final piece of the jigsaw before they start the ground works for the new plant.

……I might of course be totally wrong!

[naphar] 13/11/2024 16:01

I think it’s more about what Trump may do in future than current situation Beer….. if there is a tax free agreement with Chile, will it stay…

[beercapafn] 13/11/2024 08:15

I am reliably informed that Chilli has a Tax-Free deal with the USA, so it might not be relevant to us.

It's not my area, so could anyone out there who follows that side of world politics clarify?

Please

[naphar] 11/11/2024 08:23

Spot on beer

[beercapafn] 11/11/2024 08:12

If Trump does Tax imports, that will give IOF an advantage as a domestic producer.

Or am I missing something?

Answers on a postcard, please.

[chillpill] 11/11/2024 07:46

I doubt there will be a dramatic surge in US oil and gas production. For me it’s mainly rhetoric but it’s a good and stable environment for IOF to expand.

[beercapafn] 07/11/2024 12:50

I am surprised that this has not had a significant re-rate, UP.


NOT a fan of Trump, but he could not have been more explicit.


As Activmojo has said. DRILL, baby DRILL....

[this_is_me] 06/11/2024 16:10

Trump wants more drilling; that means more brine and therefore more iodine.

[activmojo] 06/11/2024 09:21

Drill baby drill.

[chillpill] 06/11/2024 08:40

Reduced tax rate might be helpful.

[pinkpudycat] 05/11/2024 17:18

The chairman & the CEO!

[beeezzz] 05/11/2024 17:15

What's holding Iofina back, needs a rocket up the !

[qsmeily456] 04/11/2024 12:20

And down it tumbles 🤣

[chillpill] 01/11/2024 18:35

GB,

Yes they talked about a step change in production and a new area.

My guess it would be the Woodward Trench where they have extremely high PPM concentrations.

[fft] 01/11/2024 09:56

I think RS had 10% + of SCE following the fund raise in Nov 23 but then sold everything when they had a new fund raise at 1p in April this year. He lost a decent amount of money in SCE so he isnt guaranteed with IOF !

[gb904150] 01/11/2024 08:25

If they do EBITDA of $12m it would put IOF on an EV/EBITDA of about 4.

That plus the 'step change' in production - an added potential.

Perhaps it's a process improvement? Or identification of new brine sources? Hopefully the former as that would be a quicker impact. And not much at IOF is quick.

If it's good enough for RS down at these levels it's good enough for me. He will know enough about the business going forwards.

[chillpill] 01/11/2024 07:54

Looks like RS has sucked up all stock that has come available at 19p and below. Any buying they comes into the market pushes the price up.

My personal base case is they will have a small production miss this year based on the timing of IO#10 but we will see big upgrades by CC for next year. Currently they estimate $9.6m of EBITDA for 2025 at $55/kg. With prices looking like they will be over $65/kg they should do over $12m.