Interserve Share Discussion Threads

[cfc1] 02/4/2018 13:38

??? right off for a run......all those easter eggs or was it too much red wine?!?!

[apfindley] 02/4/2018 12:52

Is Melinda invested too.

[cfc1] 02/4/2018 12:18

still here and reading the posts. Nothing to add. Findley - no worries mate. Do what you need to do and assume I know nothing!
I will sell NOTHING for at least 12months.

[brick tycoon] 02/4/2018 08:55

Hope that crystal ball is still working!

[ih_127877] 01/4/2018 21:30

A decent share price rise is on the cards for Tuesday!

[apfindley] 01/4/2018 21:10

Where is Cfc1 He's gone quiet. Has he sold at a loss, despite ramping it, pretending he knows the directors.

[da vinci1] 31/3/2018 19:53

Aendjo:Intrinsic value £1.52.☺ + Extrinsic value (Goodwill & intangibles) £2.50 😊

[aendjo] 31/3/2018 18:45

Correct Liam. Not sure what that one was about. An interesting bit of “news” is the latest article by Simply Wall Street stating intrinsic value of Interserve shares is £1.52 - but here some will say they are probably just “ramping”;. But I suspect this share will soon start trading on fundamentals again so my assessment is we are heading that way.

[liamnich04] 31/3/2018 18:16

ih .. that news was released on 06 Sep, 2017 at 08:17

[aendjo] 31/3/2018 17:51

ih - as much as I would like for Interserve to have one another big contract - I think the latest contract win was in Feb (Globalia, 10m over 3 years). I agree on news sounding a bit “coloured̶1; whilst big shorts being closed... likely to be entirely coincidental.

[da vinci1] 31/3/2018 16:16

Like I said dandan, powerful hedge funds with strong links to the media want to close short positions on the cheap!! IMHO

[dandanactionman] 31/3/2018 14:57

All the following imho, DyorI am long these shares at the moment but still class as high risk.Today's FT (in the money tabloid style section) quotes the IC Sell recommendation.I find it interesting that the news from IRV was worth 2 negative investors chronicle articles and then for this to be quoted in FT. It is almost like the negative side have a hotline to the newspapers.

[eodfire] 31/3/2018 13:46

I wasn't saying you weren't entitled to comment. Far from it. I fully understand what a bb is all about. Just found it a strange combination... categorising it as a zombie share but interested in the bb. Doesn't make sense to me.. Just my opinion.

[ih_127877] 31/3/2018 13:43

NO, NEWS WAS RELEASED ON FRIDAY aendjo.

[aendjo] 31/3/2018 13:21

I think the “news” ih posted was from 2017. I also think Jeffian’s contribution is valuable. I think I know what the number of shares will be: 125% of current float. I also read RNS here so also an approximate idea of what future earnings will be. I estimate a share price around 200p before year end. Only my opinion, of course!

[brick tycoon] 31/3/2018 13:18

It's Easter and this "zombie" will be resurrected too!! Buy! BUY! Buy!

[eodfire] 31/3/2018 13:04

Fair enough. Let's hope this "zombie" share comes to life and starts tracking north over the year. Imo I think it will. Enjoy the bb. Btw, with the right share "bottom fishing" can be very lucrative. ;-)

[topvest] 31/3/2018 12:55

Just because they are winning more low margin work is irrelevant. Their future will depend on whether they have closed off their EFW black hole or not! I am not convinced. I would say its 50:50. Even if they have, they need to raise some cash, quickly.

[jeffian] 31/3/2018 11:57

#8953,

Because it's financial bulletin board - a chatroom, no more, no less - and because as I held shares in this company for 16 years and may do so again at some point, I feel perfectly entitled to comment as much as johnny-come-lately day traders and bottom-fishers!

;-)

[da vinci1] 31/3/2018 11:33

More contracts with realistic margins (major competitor gone),efficiency drives that will contribute c£50m annually, suspension of dividends etc, all will slash the debt burden in 2/3 years. Possibly a modest RI in 2yrs time when share price is fairly priced could eliminate any lingering debt issues. I'm staying long and agree with cfc1 that this Co.has a very bright future!

[eodfire] 31/3/2018 11:32

If you think this is a "zombie" share that is not worth holding or buying, why are you wasting your time posting on this bb? Seems a little pointless to me.

[jeffian] 31/3/2018 11:18

aendjo,
It was probably taking us off-piste to introduce a separate and unrelated company but I wanted to show what a 'zombie company' looked like. As you say, apples and pears, so don't let's argue about whether it's better to have your debt secured on freehold property (60% loan-to-value) or mainly Goodwill and Intangibles. As for PER, if you look behind the statutory figure, EIG actually trades on under 6x (the exceptionals being a non-cash property value adjustment and one-off costs of a bond repurchase) but, when it comes to IRV, how can you say "I would be content with PE of 6 - or the share price to be 3 times the current valuation" when you don't know what the profit will be or how many shares will be in issue? If, as in your EIG example, you want to apply the statutory eps when it is announced, you are likely to end up with a negative as the accounts will certainly show a big, fat loss!

[aendjo] 31/3/2018 10:48

Jeffian: re: EIG and its massive debt. Agree there are analogies. Net debt at EIG is 2.1b (3x the debt at Interserve, with a 7.4 leverage, higher than Interserve). The interesting bit is EIG FY2017 EPS 11.2p, trading at 120 to 140p or PE 12, approximately. Now, forward PE of Interserve is < 2 - so you see they are not not apple and pears but perhaps Interserve is undervalued. I would be content with PE of 6 - or the share price to be 3 times the current valuation.

Fenners: re: cars and houses. I think the analogy might be confusing, but to persevere we are asking for credit to finance the company and the lenders are asking for 20% of equity in the same company, in exchange for extending the credit line. They are not benefactors and they are not stupid, and they must think 1. The company is likely to be solvent and 2. Owning equity in the company is valuable (I tend to agree, I have to admit). There’s not an external collateral (i.e. the house, when buyin the car of your analogy. Maybe I misunderstood your reasoning but let’s put a pin on this one). The point is the company has headroom to operate and function and reconfigure itself to reap rewards of a sector wide end of cycle. The terms are not punitive. Disposal of non-core assets at the right price is crucial in order to restore shareholders value. There is considerable uncertainty and the price does reflect that, as well as a sector wide bearish sentiment. But I look with favour at those 5% of shorts closing over the past weeks and think bulls here are ahead of the curve. I would enjoy a steady rise more than yet another metheoric squeeze-bust cycle. Happy Easter.

[fenners66] 31/3/2018 09:42

No one is talking about bankruptcy (at least in the next couple of years) and we have not been talking about it for a while.

What we are asking is , will there be any returns to shareholders - completely different.

Aendjo - it is 20% of the house not the car! If it was the car it would be a straight £40m - it's far worse than that - 20 % of the whole company is 20% of everything !

That includes in your best case scenario 20 % of any share price growth - you must be a client the banks love if you walk out smiling.....