Interserve Share Discussion Threads

[losses] 29/3/2018 17:15

I don't understand... if shorts are reducing then the share price should go up but it's not doing so.Does this mean the correlation between shorts and stock going down is wrong?

[cfc1] 29/3/2018 16:52

short tracker now showing another reduction on HFs at 4.75! Wallace gone completely...this is a good indicator showing constant reduction in their positions.

[eodfire] 29/3/2018 16:41

Looks like share price support forming well.

[eodfire] 29/3/2018 16:40

Green is better than red. Unlucky son.

[ih_127877] 29/3/2018 16:24

YUP, dumping...but might JUST stay green...

[ih_127877] 29/3/2018 16:04

25 minutes to go, they may well sell!

[eodfire] 29/3/2018 16:00

Looks like people don't want to be out over the weekend. Good sign to me.

[ih_127877] 29/3/2018 15:25

GOOD NEW FOR INTERSERVE. It looks like Capita is now in DIRE trouble and a RI coming up, with the share price dropping like a stone, and soon I guess to under 100. Could really be good news for IRV indeed.

[rr8eagle] 29/3/2018 14:28

Yes I agree. It’s a shame in a way they get the extra month of volatility to unwind or change positions rather than a squeeze put on the share price. Hopefully it will happen at the end of April now but it will be a long wait.

[cfc1] 29/3/2018 13:54

and the reason we have dropped again is HEDGE FUNDS...and they are winding down but still active. The HFs have been doing that for TWELVE weeks too!!!!!!

[cfc1] 29/3/2018 13:53

its really very simple.....WHY do you think the lenders supported IRV to the tune of another £300M? Is it because the plan for the business is rubbish?!!!!!
DO you not think they poured over everything durning the past TWELVE+ weeks? DO you not think they would have gone over the total plan and future disposals and possibly even a merger into 2020?
I find it incredible that NOT ONE person on here has pondered that.

If this was so 'dead' then the lenders would not have supported - period!

[eodfire] 29/3/2018 11:16

Fenners, yes you were correct spotting the downward trend the other day so pat yourself on the back. Well done. Normally you post using magnificent sums and calculation, so I wonder why you feel the need to resort to pure scaremongering (post making reference to CVR)?

[ih_127877] 29/3/2018 10:55

had a great AM, in at 78.35 and out at 83.77 with 50k shares. lovely jubbly. Told you all sub 80!!!

[mister md] 29/3/2018 10:36

a little more short-closing at the moment ... ?

[aendjo] 29/3/2018 10:28

Some posters on LSE argued there might be going to be a d4e swap. I disagree but would be keen to hear your thoughts on the following (I’m copy pasting here my LSE post to save ih the trouble). My reading and understanding of the recent RNS was 20% of equity without any debt forgiveness (the market capitalization is too low), in exchange of an extended credit facility (to 800+m) for 3 years. That means 20% dilution for shareholders in exchange of a large credit line (i.e. Interserve stays solvent), with c30m cash interest and c50m total interest (the difference added to the principal, is my understanding) and plan in place to sell non-core assets (Haymarket, etc.) and improve margins (company restructure and sector-wide cycle at turning point). Debt for 2017 is 513m and going to peak close to 600m first half 2018. The remaining c200m in credit facility are cash headroom for contract mobilization, etc. Personally, I was delighted with the details of refinancing plan (I’d much rather have 80% of a solvent company than 100% of a bankrupt company) but more importantly, I thought that there was a big piece of information there, which was the following: a decision to lend another c200m (on top of existing c600m credit facility) to Interserve was made after 3 months of auditing by Deloitte, EY and PWC (the first two instructed by independent parties and therefore not complacent) - the numbers that they looked at must have indicated that Interserve will be able to return to solvency and pay interest and principal - i.e. trade its way out of this mess (because - yes - this is a MESS, as reflected by 95% discount of share price). I read the above as good news. Further d4e swap would also dilute the lenders exercising their 10p rights option, so lenders would not want that. Not entirely impossible I guess but at this price point and with 3 years of credit line and headroom, it would not make much sense to me. I see the many negatives here, primarily the cost of debt and the issue of margins (stating margins will improve does not necessarily mean they will, although the government has already allocated money for this specific sector-wide issue, small chunks for offenders rehab and big chunks for construction, that I know of). Yes this remains a risky investment but I see a lot of recovery potential (for the company for sure but also for share price). Don’t make any investment decisions based on the above. I’m an investor here (long) and therefore biased. Good luck all and happy Easter

[da vinci1] 29/3/2018 09:42

Good morning ih_127877. Glad you enjoyed your coffee LOL. On Carillion brokers were not unanimously bullish. Peel hunt eg had a TP of 5p which was tantamount to saying bust. Irv have successfully agreed a better than expected deal which buys them plenty of time to effect a recovery, so in that sense alone,the two are like chalk and cheese. I thought you were contemplating buying IRV Again once you closed your Short sub 80p! Is that still the case? Have a nice Easter!

[dandanactionman] 29/3/2018 08:28

I am long on these shares. I think today could be interesting one way or the other. Last day of month, last day of quarter 1, day before Easter (many people on holiday).

[ih_127877] 29/3/2018 07:14

Da Cinchi, you say brokers are positive and buys....well, look what they said on Carillion too. This is NOT CLLN, but do you get my point, its useless guessing.

[ih_127877] 29/3/2018 07:13

DA VINCI, Having my coffee now, smells good! Great days trading to all. The trend is your friend.....remember!

[aendjo] 29/3/2018 02:38

We shall see over the next few weeks.

[brick tycoon] 29/3/2018 02:07

Hee hee hee. Scaremongering taken to a new level.Could have said Carillion.Even more shocking and same sector. This ain't Carillion mk2 or Conviviality mk2,it's Interserve mk1. Future secured but you are still trying to flog a dead horse.Close shorts hee hee hee.

[fenners66] 28/3/2018 23:46

I read the Times article about CVR last week and today it is bust! From £ 800m to zero in 6 months quite shocking.

[jeffian] 28/3/2018 23:16

"I might be missing something here,"

I am repeating myself here, aendjo, but what you are missing is that you have no idea of what the shareholding structure and shape of the company will look like when the company's problems are resolved. It's the same mindset shown by eodfire when he says "now all that uncertainty has gone for the medium term". No it hasn't. There is still huge uncertainty about EfW liabilities and the ballyhoo about "Fit for Growth" doesn't recognise that every troubled company comes up with some name for a cost-cutting exercise which will involve slashing overhead, cutting loss making contracts and maybe selling assets. There may be less uncertainty about the survival of the company but how many times do I have to repeat that that is not the same thing as shareholder value being restored. Marconi 'survives' as Telent, but Marconi shareholders have probably lost 99% of their investment. All the last trading update tells you is that the can has been kicked down the road a bit further - a facility has been put in place (on what terms?), covenant tests have been deferred and basically IRV will be working for the banks for the next few years to pay off interest and debt. I'm sure there will be trading opportunities here as confidence ebbs and flows but my feeling is that over the medium term the share price is more likely to trade within a band around this level for the next year or two. Talking about 'market highs' and 'lows' in the past is irrelevant - you are valuing an apple when you might discover in a year or two that it is a pear!

[da vinci1] 28/3/2018 23:00

Of 5 major brokers with a position on irv,none advise sell, with 4 of those advising STRONG BUY even prior to the announced positive financial resolution. Since they all employ a veritable army of professional analysts, it would be unlikely they'are all missing something'.