Internet Business Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 22/10/2007 13:28

Thanks, v.

[valustar1] 22/10/2007 13:22

Just spoken to Maz and they intend to issue a trading update and early November most likely

[hirschnathan] 22/10/2007 11:26

No update!

[baheid101] 19/10/2007 16:53

New reviews section in Cheapholidaydeals looks pretty good - already loads of reviews, however what I really don't understand is why they haven't sent out the Henoo Handpicked newsletter since late August.

Just to put this into context, they had built this email database to over 250,000 last time we heard and were sending out weekly newsletters - so by not sending it out they have already missed out on 1.5m potential customer contacts! the likes of travelsupermarket have been sending out offers for the October school break etc.

They have made an investment in building this database e.g. running a pay per sign up campaign through Mutualpoints, offering high-value prizes (a car and a holiday if I remember correctly) through loquax.com etc. So having made this investment IBG's must try an maximise the lifetime value of each signup. At the very least this means actually sending out their 'weekly' newsletter. Just got a Sweatband email from them - now maybe I am stupid but I would expect that the ROI from sending out a Henoo email to the 250,000 database is way, way higher than emailing to Sweatband's (its smaller, and ecommerce transactions are considerably lower margin).

[the analyst] 19/10/2007 16:19

The ironic bit is that asos left their affiliate program behind a long time ago and have continued to grow turnover at 80% per year whilst starting to improve on margins at the same time - a phenomenal record that few companies can match.

IBG's turnover growth has been very good too up until now, but not quite to that standard. The main business, affiliatefuture has grown at a very fast rate but in H1 that fell to 58% year on year (plus, that may be a bit distorted by inter-company sales begin added to it). Growth expectations for the rest of the year have been cut and full year turnover for the group is only expected to come in at 34% above last year's. Turnover growth for the upcoming year is expected to be 25%.

So, there lies the real difference that explains the share price graphs above - just a question of turnover growth, whilst remaining or improving margins in my opinion. I'm hoping that IBG can get back on track quickly. The new travel products that were delayed have been released and were showing 'promising' signs in the last statement. Plus, their media division showed 89% growth year on year in H1 and is profitable. I also look forward to the trade sale of the e-commerce business and a number of new media acquisitions that willhave synergies with the IBG protfolio, expanding turnover growth rates further.

I still think things look good and I fully expect the broker expectations to be upgraded at some stage. Hopefully a share price re-rating will follow.

[hirschnathan] 19/10/2007 14:13

will prob get a usual ibg statement, trading inline...

[the analyst] 19/10/2007 13:20

Was just clearing out some old files and found references to what used to be a great debate between whether IBG or ASC was the best investment in the e-commerce-related sector. Looking back at the charts from their lows in 2003, it was a pretty close run thing. That is until IBG recently warned of a potential shortfall in profits and ASC recently announced profits would be 'slightly' ahead of expectations this year:

[valustar1] 18/10/2007 16:12

Maz will!

I will ask

[aleman] 18/10/2007 15:52

Most other shares in the sector had a bad summer but are now improving (including nearest comparable SSE:TRAD whose feed seems to have been removed by ADVFN along with other Swedish shares).



IBG looks to be getting left behind. Does anbody know if we are definitely getting a year end trading update?

[hirschnathan] 18/10/2007 11:53

qxl pe 50
asc pe 40
ibg pe 10 ????

[omlaysause] 16/10/2007 14:56

Update on Monday maybe?

[hirschnathan] 15/10/2007 16:11

possibly, I was being conservative

[stemis] 15/10/2007 16:04

a 2.5 mile rope around the park, (to high to see) made of coloured pictures of the great north run

I thought it was 13+ miles long; the same distance as the run itself.

[hirschnathan] 15/10/2007 15:55

or maybe charge bonio & other 'volunteers' 95% tax

[bonio10000] 15/10/2007 15:44

Move then.

[old boy returns] 15/10/2007 15:11

the analyst - I really cannot understand why anyone would be selling now (ie at current levels) just because taper relief may be abolished next April. There is no hurry and the share price looks too cheap whichever way I look at it. Chances are that sentiment will improve and interest will grow following the end of year and the usual Xmas wave of publicity concerning the growth in online retail and onlibe advertising.

[old boy returns] 15/10/2007 15:05

hn - not really - I was just taking an example of an ibg holder with 400k shares bought at 4p average to show that selling at current levels on the basis of some percived tax saving does not really make sense irrespective of what other shares they hold. Also the spread issue will apply across all AIM shares and as my example demonstrates it only needs a 10% higher repurchase than sale price before the tax saving on even a big percentage gain in the share is wiped out. It could equally be four £15K holdings in other AIM shares with similar unrealised gains.

[the analyst] 15/10/2007 15:00

OBR, like you, I don't see selling as a worthwhile thing to do, but I'm pretty sure there will be sellers because of the new tax rules. I know one person that has already sold some from the 3p days for that exact reason. That guy was looking to take advantage of the taper relief and get in later at a cheaper price. Too risky for me, but nevertheless, people do that sort of thing.

The sentiment is still not good - it was not long ago we had a profit warning, a review looking at selling the company that came to nothing and a look at a share buy-back that came to nothing. Those sort of headlines do affect sentiment. My hope is that we get a good trading statement soon to make the current and future PEs look ridiculous (many would argue it is already ridiculous). That would, in my opinion, make holding on for the long term a lot more compelling for anyone considering selling right now.

[hirschnathan] 15/10/2007 14:56

obr

thats assuming that people only invest all their money in one share

[old boy returns] 15/10/2007 14:34

the analyst - in the case of ibg you would lose that £5,500 tax saving on the spread between selling and repurchasing imo. If you had bought at 4p (and to be honest I think there a very few holders who got in at those levels in any decent volume) and were looking to sell at 14p today then you would need to be selling 400,000 shares to realise a £40K gain and a £5,500 (or 1.4p per share) tax saving. Very few holders have that many shares to sell from the 4p or less days and even if they did they would be hard to shift without being fleeced by the mm's due to liquidity issues (I struggled to buy 50K today). And then you would need to buy back 400K at under 15.4p a share just to be back where you started with no saving at all. To my mind it is just not worth the risk and hassle if you think you are onto a winner with your ing holding.

[the analyst] 15/10/2007 14:11

I'm not convinced that logic always wins out, when it comes to tax. No matter what the long-term potential is for IBG, I suspect today's drop is due to people taking profits to take advantage of the cgt taper relief sooner rather than later.

Under the current rules, profit of almost £40,000 can be taken without any tax at all (asuming no other income). Next year, that sort of sale will deliver a bill of over £5,500, which is significant imo.

I agree that many will look to sell and then buy back later. The question for me is when will those people begin to buy, having previously sold?

It could give people a good opportunity to gradually accumulate shares in value companies (like IBG) over the next 6 months. Whatever happens, I think it's going to be interesting.

[old boy returns] 15/10/2007 13:47

the analyst - even if the removal of taper relief does go ahead an announced I do not see it 'clearing out' long term ibg holders before next April (unless the share price at least doubles from here in the meantime). Some may look for ways of selling and repurchasing in order to realise the tax gain before taper relief goes but I doubt many will be out for good.

btw - I expect the chancellor will at least have to concede to allowing taper relief eligible before next April to be frozen so that it can be used on a later diposal. I am sure they filed to think through the implications for existing business owners, entrepreneurs and long term AIM investors before making the announcement.

[the analyst] 15/10/2007 12:50

10p would value the company at less than £8m, yump - I think that puts them on a forward PE of about 5x for the current year and less than 4x for the year we are just about to enter.

One thing I think the new cgt laws will do, if they come in, is they will clean out quite a few of the holders that have held from very low prices that were looking to sell at some point over the next year or so.

With a new, lower, 18% rate for shorter term investors, we could see a big rally as people start to buy thinking they can take good short-term profits.