Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[pyman] 30/3/2011 17:07

us unemployment data boosts dollar : stronger dollar = stronger earnings for IGP

[rambutan2] 30/3/2011 03:15

Great news re Microsoft. I wonder by how much it immediately expands IGP's sales opps for a negligible cost?

IGP is the only partner to offer plug n play...


Vast resource on FIM here...

[wjccghcc] 29/3/2011 14:45

Agree re the takeover price but I'm sure it would be an industry player rather than an MBO. Management remember too well what it was like to operate with stretched finances and I very much doubt they'd be comfortable taking on MBO leverage.

[aphrodites] 29/3/2011 14:33

WJC

I think the big question here is whether IGP would be able to grow faster under the arm of a major business like Microsoft than as a stand-alone quoted company on the AIM market.

As I posted several months ago,the aim of every company is to produce shareholder value and to date that is exactly what IGP has done. But where does it go from here? Does it make an acquisition or just continue to grow organically?

Personally, I think it would be better for them to be taken over now and I would not mind betting that any would be predator would have to pay £1.50+.

It is either that or a management buy out which I would find strange having seen the CEO sell part of his holding to Herald Investments.

Considering that sale was around the 40p level, even though the value has doubled, after all the good news, and the lack of market liquidity, to my mind an 80p price today does not reflect the true value of IGP. Of course it would help the price if some of the recent silly selling antics had not undermined the share price. On an announcement like today and recent past news we should be nearer £1 than only 80p.

This is all most frustrating but it is one of the problems with shares on the AIM market.

[wjccghcc] 29/3/2011 13:10

I think it depends on whether IGP can leverage their US success into a global business.

It's clear IGP have taken market leadership in the US high-end market, and with 58% of turnover in the USA, it's very much becoming a US business. UK revenues are likely to decline both in relative and absolute terms now that the NHS spine is nearly complete and with the abolition of the ID card scheme. If that's the way it stays, then I think management will be happy to sell once they reach double digit revenues (giving EPS of 8p and a takeout price of 150-200p).

The rest of Europe/World revenues are about 20% of the business and still very lumpy (as was the UK/US a few years ago when the business was at an earlier growth stage). If IGP can dominate the high-end market here, then it's a whole different ballgame and you're looking at 20mm+ revenues in 5 years time and a valuation which is a multiple of today's.

The downside of staying listed is that this lumpiness will mean they'll occasionally have a weaker half's trading and the stock market may well punish them accordingly.

Personally, it wouldn't surprise me to see H2 being weaker than H1 for this year - a lot of good contracts fell into H1 that won't be repeated (NHS), and all the recent great news (launch of MyId9, PIV-I approval, Microsoft) won't have had a financial impact yet. Luckily, Management have managed expectations accordingly so that 4p EPs should be achievable. Next year however, could see them moving to the next level...

[pyman] 29/3/2011 12:29

Yeah. Good news for us they did nt take em over yet. Great news.

[igoe104] 29/3/2011 12:15

I dont know why microsoft just take intercede over, it would just about put them in control of the whole id market.

[wjccghcc] 29/3/2011 09:27

Long term, this is a very significant move and really opens up the enterprise space for IGP. Currently, the most demanding security environments are the government / defence contractors where they have no choice but to implement PIV and PIV-I systems where IGP is the market leader. However, further down the security spectrum there are a large number of enterprises who base their IT infrastructure on Microsoft and therefore will use Forefront as the starting point for their security needs. By integrating MyID seamlessly with Forefront, these enterprises can now adopt the highest federal standards for their security without an awful lot of work/expense of integrating two systems.

Another nail in the coffin of Actividentity IMHO.

[aphrodites] 29/3/2011 08:19

It should certainly have moved the share price higher but the spread and lack of liquidity is killing trade.

[yump] 29/3/2011 08:03

Wonder if it will have the same effect as the mention of the word Google has elsewhere ?

[rivaldo] 29/3/2011 07:34

So...Microsoft then?!



"Enterprise Credentialing Partnership with Microsoft

Intercede (London Stock Exchange AIM: IGP) today announces the release of the Intercede MyID Management Agent (MA) for Microsoft Forefront Identity Manager (FIM). This is the culmination of close collaboration with the Microsoft Identity and Access Management technical team.

The combination of Intercede MyID and Microsoft FIM provides customers with today's most comprehensive credentialing solution for Enterprise customers....."

[wjccghcc] 28/3/2011 19:46

Trading update is usually next week I think.

[carly2] 28/3/2011 17:45

Well, I'm waiting for the year end trading update - it will presumably be this week..
Best wishes all

[aphrodites] 28/3/2011 16:19

Interesting to see that the MM's know someone is up to their old selling tricks again.

You can buy in 10,000 lots very easily but you can only sell 2,000.

[looby loo] 21/3/2011 11:44

Yep, thanks Jailbird, I thought I better do a bit of reading on the subject. ;o) If anyone else is interested in learning about SecurId, there's some excellent information here:



It's even got a section for the RSA March 2011 system compromise, with some additional reference links at the bottom:

[jailbird] 21/3/2011 09:21

A secureId token is a fob attached to a keyring essentially and displays random mumbers
i used this to login into internal servers at work.

It is part of 2 factor authorisation...this being the latter.

You enter a (your personal)PIN+ securID code from token.

this code are random numbers that change every 30 seconds

[wjccghcc] 20/3/2011 11:47

Good point - I'd forgotten that - though it was 8 years ago and marked their first entry into the US. It was a corporate CMS that basically took secureID users to the next level of security by using smart cards that could also authenticate the securid tokens - it was never part of the SecurID solution itself.

When I talked to management at the AGM. they said that RSA had moved away from this area once they were bought by EMC. If you are concerned, then email Parris or Walker - they're usually pretty responsive.

[looby loo] 20/3/2011 11:09

Thanks WJCC. I had previously thought (from news release below) that MyID was at the heart of RSA's SecurID, so just assumed that some responsibility for this breach could lie with Intercede.




Intercede announces the launch of MyID™ Corporate - An RSA Secured® Solution

18/11/2003

Lutterworth, Leicestershire, United Kingdom-November 18, 2003- Intercede Group plc, today announced the launch of a new variant of Intercede's MyID™ Corporate smart card based ID solution. This version, which has been certified as part of the RSA Secured® Partner Program, has been developed by Intercede for RSA Security environments. It leverages and enhances the features available in RSA Keon® digital management software and RSA SecurID® two factor authentication software.


But I understand now the issue is with SecurID TOKENS (not SecurID cards). You have a much more thorough understanding of these things than me (and probably anyone else on ADVFN). So thanks again for clarifying. ;o)

[wjccghcc] 20/3/2011 10:54

Loobyloo, have expanded the post above to give more info.

[looby loo] 20/3/2011 10:50

Thanks WJCC, so you don't think there could be a vulnerability issue with MyID then?

[wjccghcc] 20/3/2011 10:45

SecurID is nothing to do with MyID. It's a token that issues a number to enable you to log in/authenticate an electronic transaction - just like the card machines the banks have issued us to do online banking.

MyID is for much higher level and more comprehensive security systems (though they can include tokens).

If this pushes entities from relying on two factor token authentication to using a higher security smart card system, then it will actually benefit Intercede.

As an aside, since RSA was bought by EMC, they had a strategic direction change to target the larger mid-market security and moved away from the high-end. Consequently Intercede don't do much with them anymore - it's why the TWIC contract was transferred from RSA to Intercede directly.

[looby loo] 20/3/2011 10:42

Thanks rambutan2, well spotted. Here's RSA chairman's letter. (It really annoys me when people don't put a date on their articles. I believe it was published on 17 March.)





EMC Corp / RCA issued a SEC 8-K on 17 March:



saying, "EMC does not believe that the matter described in the letter and note will have a material impact on its financial results." In which case, who is liable?

There are a lot of press articles on this. Take your pick from this lot!




These 2 are probably as good as any:







"The worst case, many security consultants say, is that the vulnerability created by the theft might require companies to replace the secure tokens, which, according to analysts, cost $15 a year or more to maintain. The vulnerability might also force RSA to rethink the design of its SecurID system."




This guy's comment is worth a read:




"RSA may not want to do the responsible thing because it would be very expensive for them... but given the only deductions possible from what little RSA has said in light of the technology, any company using RSA SecurID tokens should consider them completely compromised and should insist upon their immediate replacement."


I haven't seen any mention of Intercede's name – Yet!

It seems incredible that Intercede achieved GSA approval for MyID on 15 March, then just a few days later, this happens. My cynical mind is thinking our jealous enemy, Actividentity has tried to destroy us once, so it'll keep on trying. Have they got a team of software engineers working hard to breach SecurID? On the other hand, RSA might issue a directive for every SecurID token to be replaced. In which case, Intercede could be laughing all the way to the bank, couldn't it?

We need more information.

[rambutan2] 20/3/2011 00:38

Story was in the FT today...