Intelligent Energy Share Discussion Threads

[dean windass] 03/10/2016 20:49

Nice post on the FCV iBug ... a lot of people overlook this side of HFC powered vehicles .... yet it's something IEH built into their HFC powered motorbike they developed with Suzuki ..... the HFC on the motorbike separates from the bike and can be used as a kind of generator ... so you can ride the bike to your boat, caravan, hut or whatever and then run your laptop, lights, radio, TV ... whatever from the same HFC used on the motorbike ..... you can't do that with your petrol or diesel car, van etc. .... come to think about it, modular fuel cells that fit your car, motorbike that can be detached and fitted to an outboard or inboard motor on your boat etc. .... it's hard to get your head around because it's so revolutionary .... in the future .... interestingly enough .... IEH have kept their HFCs simple and using cheap components so I presume people will be able to service their own HFCs in the same way as people work on their cars, do oil changes, change brake pads etc.. using tools they probably already have .... watch the video on youtube of James May testing the IEH motorbike .....

[ibug] 03/10/2016 15:20

BREAD AND BUTTER BUSINESSES are now being developed along with THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ORDERS ARRIVE ON THE SCENE FROM JV's THAT ARE MOTHBALLED THEN BUSINESS WILL FLOURISH.

AND THOSE ORDERS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY TO ARRIVE...in the meantime the business needs to create a bread and butter enterprise.... and that is starting to happen through remote energy systems for refrigerated containers, forklifts, telecom towers, smart phones, drones and emergency power systems.

The corporates in those sectors all have there own R&D and manufacturing teams...thus they just need the tech and know how....simples...lol

[ibug] 03/10/2016 15:18

NEWS from ieh CAN DROP IN ANYTIME FROM A WIDE NUMBER OF LONG TERM SOURCES.

This stock has the potential for a sudden surprise and surge in the share price as seen recently imo...lol@naysayers....and oilies haha...hydrogen is the future for transport and electricity!.

[dean windass] 03/10/2016 11:10

As far as SMILE FC is concerned, it looks as if IEH did a deal some time ago where Suzuki paid IEH £42 million for non-exclusive access to IEH's tech which results in IEH owning half of SMILE FC ... cash from Suzuki plus IEH end up with an asset. That seems pretty interesting.

I know BBs are full of people saying "news could come at any time" but is the "news" in a sector that's growing or contracting? People have been saying for years that commodities and mining will soon recover massively .... er it hasn't ... so saying news could come at any time about an iron ore miner isn't the same as saying the same about a company that is producing stuff that is being adopted now ... as the rest of the world sees that Hydrogen is probably "the future" I expect IEH to announce more development deals with manufacturers that also want their products to be liberated from batteries .... lithium batteries have their uses but Lithium supplies are finite, hydrocarbon fuel reserves are finite and, like Lithium (disposal) have environmental consequencies ... hydrogen supplies are, for all intents and purposes limitless and available to pretty much anyone, not just a few nations or people who own most of the reserves ... so I can't really see how The West can stop the Green, clean march of developing countries who want to control their power generation by using hydrogen ... it will hurt parts of The West's economic model .... whilst benefiting the bits that had the foresight to see global trends .... but I cannot see anyone adopting any technology that depends on limited supplies of anything ... Lithium batteries in electric cars last about 7 years max ... so, how much Lithium is needed to keep everyone on the road and what use are Lithium batteries in powering anything off grid ... or where there is no grid?

Hydrogen .. it's clean, there's more of it than we could ever use and that means no-one can get control over the world's hydrogen reserves ... politically, environmentally and economically, it's the best option .... for the next few decades anyway!!

[dean windass] 03/10/2016 10:48

We also must remember that many parts of the developing world, even if oil is discovered there may not want to use it for fuel if they can produce renewable hydrogen at a cost effective price. In the developed world, there was never the option to develop with today's technology so we dug copper ore, smelted it, made cables, cut down trees, mad telegraph and power poles, strung phone and electricity cables from the poles ... generated electricity massively, centrally and inefficiently ... and now, the west has to compete with places that have all their growth to come simply using mobile data, mobile phones and renewable energy .... countries that do NOT want to be held to ransom by the oil producing companies, who don't want to hold a float of $US to buy the stuff will adopt renewable energy ... because they can ... countries that don't have oil will still have (mostly) tides, wind, sunshine, rivers and lakes .... maybe this is one of the reasons The West is failing ... technology has made obsolete the economy on which The West has relied for so long .... why built a grid when anything, anywhere can be powered by hydrogen which, if it isn't shipped in, can be produced locally from surplus sun, hydro, wind etc..

If you were running a developing country with no electricity or comms grid, would you create a grid of simply produce energy, more efficiently, where it was needed rather than lose a load of it between the power station and the consumer due to the resistance in miles of copper cable?

It's not just the developing world that will choose not to bother with grids ... in The West, we will decide that maintaining the grid and generating electricity centrally is inefficient ..... and replace the grid with locally generated power ... homes will produce their own hydrogen and feed it into their own mini, intelligent grid ... or companies like IEH will offer the option of monitoring HFCs in peoples' house ... on behalf of utilities supplying "mains" electric if and when required ... don't forget it's the software and services for monitoring centrally and remotely HFCs that makes IEHs stuff so useful for some applications .... it'll be interesting to see how far away we are from being able to buy an HFC and monitor it using a free app on our smartphones ... turning it on, off and up or down as required and monitoring the level of hydrogen available ....

[dean windass] 03/10/2016 10:36

Hiya Filster ... IEH is what it is ... they are up totheir eyeballs in NDAs, a drawback of being at the forefront of technology .... if I hired someone who had something really new to offer my product, I'd want water tight NDAs so Ichose when the market and my competitors knew what I was up to ... it's not up to IEH to release an RNS or press statement saying "Next year's update to the iPhone will be powered by our technology" or which drone manufacturer is trying to be the first to market with something that, at the moment is capable of doing what other drones can't ... I imagine it's not so muchwho can DO the HFC drones but who has a product that can be pretty seamlessly be integrated into existing products .... ie. "drone x needs a constant voltage of x volts at x amps and this HFC delivers that for 4 hours powered by x amount of hydrogen weighing x grammes" .... if IEH have something "off the shelf" that will give a drone manufacturer a chance to establish themselves in this new market and CHARGE A PREMIUM to the customers who want to apply these new drones to the market and charge a premium to their clients ... IEH will do good business ... it's a bit ironic the new iPhone doesn't run on hydrogen yet the tech from miniaturising the HFCs has made the drone uptime radically better ... then you start thinking .... what else that is normally powered by batteries can also be similarly adapted? How many people are electrocuted each year cutting through power leads using hedge trimmers and lawn mowers? Power washers needing no cables or generators that can be winched up offices to clean windows and do maintanance ... similarly power tools ... rather than have a load of pricey power packs fully charged before you go up in a lift or platform to work, you can take 8 hours worth of hydrogen cartridges perhaps .... anyway ... I reckon IEH is seriously undervalued ... it seems Suzuki / SMILE reached the first phase of semi automated mass production a while ago and will be about to ramp up to the stage 3. How much is SMILE FC worth? How much is E2 India worth? Will the figures for these companies show in IEH's accounts? I can understand that five years ago the world was quite different ... pre dieselgate and the world's finances were stable with oil at $100 odd a barrel even after the 2008 crash .... now air quality is a big issue,HFCs are actually being used, refilling stations are appearing .... I just think IEH is on the cusp of getting a piece of quite a bit of action .... and apparently, Japan is making a BIG thing about putting on a "green" Olympics ..... hence the plans to put a huge hydrogen complex at Fukushima ... replacing dangerous, toxic power generation with the opposite .... if Japan DOES get a lot of kudos, lowers CO2 and can show by the time the Olympics comes around respiratory diseases are falling due to better air quality , the rest of the planet will want to know why they're being gassed ....

[filster] 03/10/2016 06:55

Great posts Dean - I especially like the one confirming that SMILE is 50:50 owned.

The Drone market that IEH is targeting isn't the £1,200 one it's the £4-5,000 one and I think the figures mentioned (at the Analysts Briefing) were around double that - so we're looking at something costing between 8 and 10,000 pounds.

It's now a straight battle to profitability for IEH and they've got around 14-15 months from now to do that (without extra funding or dilution).

The Accounting year has now ended for IEH and we'll just have to wait until the Accounts are published, which I think is going to be slightly earlier than last year so around Mid-November this year. 5-6 weeks away. It will be interesting to see the tone of the Annual Accounts and if there are any (good) surprises in there - maybe some deals have been done so that they definitely made it in to 2015-2016 and not 2016-2017 (I can but hope!). Of course they may well not have focused on achieving this as they have money for at least the next year.

[dean windass] 03/10/2016 03:54

" The new venture has received funding and support from the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), which has identified Intelligent Energy as having proven technology and business attributes expected to achieve growth in Japan’s economy."

[dean windass] 02/10/2016 14:36

"Financial details

IE expects to earn approximately £120m revenue per annum for providing power and maintaining equipment. The charge out rate is based on a pre-determined charge for power supply based on expected levels of efficiency. The rates paid by the tower companies for these power supplies are indexed against current electricity and diesel prices such that E2 manages fuel volume risk but not fuel price risk. This will result in an expected initial gross EBITDA margin of c.15%. This is equivalent to pre-tax cash EBITDA margin of c.£17m per year. E2 will have a direct billing relationship with the MNOs Aircel and Tata but will otherwise invoice the tower companies.

Until completion, IE will continue to operate under an existing interim sub-contract arrangement for power supply services to the 27,400 sites. This interim sub-contract has minimal EBITDA margins.

The Tower Companies will fund replacement of power generating assets as requested by IE. IE will however fund the incremental capital cost of introducing fuel cell technology. The deployment of fuel cells is expected to be economic where generators run off-grid for more than 8 hours a day. This is currently the case for around 70% of sites and initial deployment is now anticipated to increase pace with wide scale roll-out occurring over the next 3 -5 years, the incremental capital cost of which is estimated to be in the region of £1.5m per annum; IE has already received positive indications on external financing for this amount.

Over the ten year life of the agreement, EBITDA margin is expected to grow to between 30%-35% which is a cash equivalent EBITDA of c.£40m per year as IE moves through the four step process of acquisition, enhancement, diesel to fuel cell substitution and the addition of customers on a material proportion of sites.

Total consideration is comprised of INR 850 Crores (approximately £85m) in cash of which up to £25m will be financed from IE's existing cash resources. INR 600 Crores (approximately £60m) of debt will be sourced from the Indian banking markets. The interest rate is expected to be c.12%. This will be secured against the revenue stream of the power management contracts acquired as part of the Energy Management Business."

[dean windass] 02/10/2016 13:07

"Manufacturing

Fuel cell stacks for the expected initial deployment into India in 2015 will be manufactured in Japan at SMILE's ready to scale production line in Yokohama, Japan. SMILE is a 50:50 owned joint venture between Suzuki and Intelligent Energy. This deployment of IE's core fuel cell 'engine' in a DP&G application represents a further concrete example of IE's 'design once, deploy many times' philosophy."

Once production at SMILE reaches certain levels of volume, the price of the HFCs will fall to ever lower levels enabling them to be used cost effectively for other applications.

Henri Winand always said he wanted large scale production to bring down the cost of IEH's fuel cells .... once they're produced in volume, IEH makes its money from licencing the IP and, like ARM Holdings, can concentrate on improving HFCs and membranes etc. .... I AM impatient for news but also quite excited ....

[dean windass] 02/10/2016 05:35

and the rest of The World

and the UK

[dean windass] 02/10/2016 05:23

Which goes to show how little IEH can reveal because of NDAs, irritating for us as investors but we simply have to glean nits of news from reports like the ones I posted earlier by Edison.

shows how even oil rich countries like Norway see oil's days are numbered .... as does this



this is also interesting .... a map showing where you can fill up with hydrogen in Europe ....

[dean windass] 02/10/2016 05:12

current vacanciesIEH

"Main purpose

Administration of Agreements, Contracts and IP documentation. Provide general administration support to the legal, company secretarial and patent teams.

Key accountabilities

Management of the company NDA process.
Managing and administering anti-bribery recording processes.
Supporting Company Secretary with company secretarial related admin, including maintaining an online company database, filing annual returns (confirmation statements) electronically, arranging Notary Public signatures, obtaining director signatures on Board meeting minutes and other documentation of subsidiary companies etc.
Preparing for signature, arranging for signature and processing signed contracts, powers of attorney, invention disclosures and similar documents relevent to the work of the legal and patent teams.
Collecting, logging and filing of all contracts. Maintain filing systems and digital archives of all signed contracts and legal documentation.
Preparing presentations and other documents required by the teams; managing updates to controlled documents and templates
Supporting senior patent specialist with patent related admin including the administration of an online patent database and liaising with patent agents
Providing general administration support to the lawyers and patent team.
Maintaining group date protection registrations.


Responsible for

Person specification

Qualifications

Essential:
Legal qualification
Desirable:
IP Qualification
Experience

Essential:
Previous experience in office or legal administration
Desirable:
Previous experience in IP or patent administration
Key skills

Essential:
IT Skills - Microsoft Office Packages
Ability to handle a varied workload with attention to detail and be able to work on own initiative.
Manage multiple tasks across contract areas.
Self-motivated with a positive ’can do’ attitude and good all round time management and organisational skills.
Excellent interpersonal skills and able to confidently liaise with all levels of management.
Ability to communicate well with at all levels and displays appropriate levels of confidentiality.
Proven ability to work as part of a team.
Desirable:
Proprietary patent software packages"

[dean windass] 01/10/2016 20:09

"Group earnings FY15-17e
Our estimates show revenues rising to £444.5m (US$675.6m) by FY17, with most of the growth
generated from the DP&G division. Given the cautious growth trajectory assumed in our model, IEH
is not expected to become profitable until FY17. The big hike in profitability shown in FY17 is partly
attributable to our assumption that the Motive division will secure a major licence deal in that year,
contributing an estimated £42.8m (US$65.1m) to group profits. Stripping that out, IEH would
generate an estimated £52.8m (US$80.3m) EBITDA in FY17. "

[dean windass] 01/10/2016 20:06

So, in a nutshell, as long as crude oil is cheap, it will stunt the share price of all HFC companies though they will still be viable as demand for HFCs is not driven by cost but by the need to reduces CO2 and improve air quality ..... no point gassing ourselves with the lights on just because it's cheaper than having the lights driven by HFCs .... it'll be interesting to watch the correlation between the crud price and IEH's SP

[dean windass] 01/10/2016 20:03

"Our analysis of a sample of listed peers engaged in the provision of power generation and other
equipment to utilities and the construction sector and telecoms tower operators (American Tower)
indicates that an EV/Sales ratio of 2.4x for Year 2 or FY16e is appropriate. Applying this multiple to
a range of revenues extending from our base case for FY16e (£211.2m divisional revenues,
US$321m) to FY16e revenues realisable if management achieves its target of 135k telecoms
towers under management by end FY17 (£295.7m divisional revenues, US$449.5m) and beyond
(150 sites) gives an implied market capitalization of between £357m/US$542m (base case as
modelled in our estimates) to £641m/US$974m. This implies that the base case value, taking only
the DP&G division, is more than 100% higher than the current market cap. (We note that the IEH
share price, in common with those of other fuel cell companies, has declined as the crude oil price
has declined.)"

[dean windass] 01/10/2016 20:00

"A downward movement in the global oil price will not adversely affect the profitability of the
DP&G division in the short to medium term as contracts are constructed to pass on fuel price
movements. It is expected to reduce the number of towers where fuel cells are substituted for
diesel generators. The adoption of fuel cells in the automotive sector is currently driven by
legislation and adoption in the consumer electronics sectors by consumer convenience rather
than any economic advantage gained by switching to hydrogen fuel. "

[dean windass] 01/10/2016 19:56

" the division is
expected to generate revenues through a combination of JDAs, licence fees, the provision of
engineering support and consultancy. Between July 2011 and July 2014 IEH received a total of
£76.6m (US$116m) in revenues from these sources. This included £45m (US$68m) in licence fees
from Suzuki. A total consideration of £22.6m (US$34.4m) is payable under the agreement with the
European car manufacturer, which will be received in instalments as successive phases of the
development program are completed. This manufacturer can exercise an option to license the IP on
a non-exclusive basis. Potential fees from this main licence and sublicenses total up to £1,320m
(US$2,006m). The program with the second Japanese car manufacturer has the scope to follow the
same path as the program with Suzuki. IEH is in active discussions with multiple other car
manufacturers"

[dean windass] 01/10/2016 19:54

It seems the deal with Suzuki is intended to have Suzuki, via SMILE making HFcs to be used by other car manufacturers ... IEH have a long term licensing agreement with Suzuki so maybe what we need to look out for is Suzuki announcing it is supplying HFCs to other manufacturers .... those HFCs should use IEH technology and that's where IEH gets its long term income from .... perhaps a bit like you can buy lawn mowers and all sorts of gear with Honda or Briggs and Stratton motors .... anyone who wants to make anything with an HFC will be buying from people like Suzuki .... much as many companies that use motors don't actually make them

[dean windass] 01/10/2016 19:39

This is also good .... Edison's research seems good though the adoption of HFCs is lagging behind Edison's forecasts

"Valuation: Significant upside from royalties
Our sum-of-the parts analysis gives a valuation range of $700m to $1,604m. This
analysis assumes a single licence deal in FY17, but excludes any value associated
with long-term royalties for the Motive or Consumer Electronics divisions."

Do the maths!!!!!!