Inspecs Share Discussion Threads

[nafafa] 14/8/2023 21:23

Not long until results are due. There will be a scramble for stock shortly.

[74tom] 14/8/2023 11:09

@bookbroker, the main issue is a complete lack of UK based institutional investors willing to buy profitable small caps at sensible prices. Shares in Inspecs traded at £3.50 in mid 2022 & one poor quarter decimated the share price. What made it particularly bad was the likes of Aberdeen Asset Management deciding to sell out at the lows as that gave 6% of the company away at a crazy price. I mean WTF was the fund manager doing selling at 40p?

But yes, definitely some FOLO going on today, it wouldn't surprise me if someone makes a bid at these levels.

[74tom] 14/8/2023 09:46

@masurenguy, it tried - the market makers opened the book at 2v1 but yet more marginal sellers arrived at 105p (20k shares) and its now fallen further on tiny volume - truly comical.

[bookbroker] 12/8/2023 19:11

Equities dead, little point in holding any stock apart on a minute by minute basis these days. This stock like any has pretty good prospects, but the FOMO crowd, and likewise FOLO makes investing a total waste of capital. Investing not based on reality but ultrashort-termism. No thanks to the sceptic tanks!!

[masurenguy] 12/8/2023 14:09

May well see a shareprice trend reversal occur on Monday ! 🤞

[74tom] 10/8/2023 14:26

Honestly, AIM trading behaviour can be comical at times. Classic sheep like activity here, shares rose nearly 10% post 28/07 trading update, peaking at a mid of 127 and a 3v1 order book. Since then they’ve tumbled nearly 20% as marginal seller after marginal seller appears.

Results are in 19 trading days and will show excellent cash generation;

“The Group has delivered strong cash generation in the first half and, as a result, net debt (excluding leases) decreased by £5.0m to £22.6m (31 December 2022: £27.6m). During the period, the Group invested £0.9m on construction of our new manufacturing facility in Vietnam and paid a further £2.2m of deferred and contingent consideration relating to the EGO and BoDe acquisitions.”

That’s £8.1m generated in 6 months vs a now £108m market cap, so the annualised FCF yield is now nearly 15%…

Add in the fact that German, French & British consumer confidence is rapidly recovering as inflation falls & there is reason to believe FCF generation could accelerate further in H2… so why sell now?!

[mortal1ty] 28/7/2023 22:06

I think at £2 you have to start pricing in some growth. But by then, with a market cap nearer 200m at a 10x multiple I suspect they will start acquiring again.

[saucepan] 28/7/2023 13:30

Some insightful comments; thanks for sharing.

[74tom] 28/7/2023 13:19

Excellent update here, was trading at £2.50 this time last year & £3.80 the year before. Based on todays detail, the current valuation makes very little sense. Regarding working capital movements, payables & receivables were all at the lower end of historic levels in the FY22 finals, whilst inventories were around average, so I doubt working capital movements have been the driver of the debt reduction / FCF.

I agree that 1x sales (£220m) or 10x FY21 adjusted EBITDA ($276m / £215m) makes sense as a conservative target price, so ~£2 a share. There would still be upside from there but the gap from the current £1.23 to £2 looks very appealing as a short term swing into 7th September.

[mortal1ty] 28/7/2023 09:02

8m cash generation in the period. Can't tell how much of that is working capital movement. But if working capital flat that puts it on a 16pc FCF yield.

[mortal1ty] 28/7/2023 08:37

Should be at least 1x sales in my opinion.

[john09] 28/7/2023 08:20

Holding for the next leg up at least here. Seems to be moving like clockwork, scarcity value and could be debt free end of next year on that debt reduction number

[bigbigdave] 28/7/2023 08:11

Nice, looks like 'inline' is plenty good enough :o)

[mortal1ty] 28/7/2023 07:28

Pretty large holding here for me. Was going to add more yesterday but the amount of debt made me nervous.

Inline trading and a chunky pay down in debt is a great result.

[masurenguy] 28/7/2023 07:15

Good progress in HI. Interims due on 7 September.

Half Year Trading Update

The Group has delivered a solid trading performance in the first half with revenue increasing 6.0% to £111.1m (H1 2022: £104.8m). On a constant currency basis revenue increased 2.3% to £107.2m.

Financial position

The Group has delivered strong cash generation in the first half and, as a result, net debt (excluding leases) decreased by £5.0m to £22.6m (31 December 2022: £27.6m). During the period, the Group invested £0.9m on construction of our new manufacturing facility in Vietnam and paid a further £2.2m of deferred and contingent consideration relating to the EGO and BoDe acquisitions.

Richard Peck, Chief Executive Officer of INSPECS Group plc, commented:"I am pleased that the positive momentum that we experienced in Q1 continued into Q2 and that all of the Group's major markets have performed consistently in H1 2023. We continue to focus on our strategy of driving sales and improving operational efficiency. As a result of this performance in the first half, notwithstanding the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, the Board remains confident in delivering full year results in line with market expectations."

[brucethegoldfish] 28/7/2023 07:07

Excellent trading update on H1 2023 this morning.

Revenue up 6%
Debt reduced by 19%
Strong cash flow generation
Board confident on meeting FY 2023 expectations.

[resurrect123] 24/7/2023 18:28

Looking good here waiting for the move like everyone else

[deanos31] 10/7/2023 14:26

Agree looks like good progress here.Interims were mid august last year and with the reporting period ending 30 June 2023 I imagine they will be before September. Looking at the annual report I was pleased to see they weren't looking to make any more acquisitions currently. They need to start bringing all the other acquisitions together and start turning a profit. I think they are on the right track now with continuing with the Vietnam factories out of free cash flow esp when noting "the good order book in our factories and we are seeing synergies from making more ofour own products in our own factories". This will hopefully drive the profit margins. I think the next update will be a good one with the currency issues not what they were a year ago, Norville having a chance to bed in and the mentioned strong rebound in early 2023 trading that they have seen. They also mention that they know forward orders through to the middle of June 2023 so assume and hope it's a strong rebound for the first half of the year not just Q1.

[masurenguy] 10/7/2023 08:22

Some good progress is being made here to both capitalize on prior acquisitions and also to exploit the post-Covid market in both regular perscription products and sunglasses. There is plenty of scope for a shareprice recovery based upon the prior IPO and subsequent placing some 3 years ago.

"The Company has successfully raised £23.5m by way of a placing of 12,051,282 new Ordinary Shares with institutional and other investors at a price of 195p per share. In addition, 36,171,506 existing Ordinary Shares have been placed on behalf of Selling Shareholders at the Placing Price, raising gross proceeds of £70.5 m. The Company's market capitalisation on Admission is £138.0m." 27/02/20

"A total of 30,476,191 Placing Shares have been conditionally placed with new and existing investors at a price of 210p per share, representing a nil discount to the mid-market closing price on 18 November 2020. The Placing will raise gross proceeds of approximately £64m and will represent approximately 30.09% of the enlarged issued share capital of the Company following Admission." 19/11/20

"We have had a good performance in Q1 2023 and are ahead of the same period in 2022. This was driven by a rebound in our European markets and continued growth in other markets." 27/04/23.

Interims are due in early September.

[bigbigdave] 10/7/2023 08:19

That's more like it :o)

[lindowcross] 04/7/2023 07:00

In 2020 Spec paid £80m odd to acquire the German company Eschenbach. It was purchased from a private equity outfit. Spec itself is currently valued at just 100m odd for entire company. So did Spec over-pay? (Common in purchases from PE) Or is Spec just very undervalued? I guess we'll find out over the next couple of years.

[bookbroker] 30/6/2023 15:14

Not helping here it seems!

[cyberbub] 29/6/2023 12:57

There's been heavy buying at 113p every day for the last week, a 369k buy has just gone through. There must be a large sell (1-2M) being worked in the background. Hopefully when that's exhausted then we might move up?NAI etc

[cyberbub] 22/6/2023 12:03

Some decent buying coming in at 113p....