Innovaderma Share Discussion Threads

[molatovkid] 15/8/2018 12:58

I say you chaps, once IDP returns to its rightful £4 mark, we should have a party with lashings of ginger beer and macaroons all round....

[backpacker] 15/8/2018 12:54

If you add the 310k to the 90k trade (from Monday) nice round number of 400k! if they are one and the same that would be a reportable 3.5%

[aaaaauuuummmm] 15/8/2018 12:46

Massive buy yesterday, defo worth an RNS to explain.. Totally explains the price being worked down taking out stop losses to fill a large order.. Joe

[deccer1] 15/8/2018 12:40

No celebrity want to smell like the toilet.

[deccer1] 15/8/2018 12:39

That shampoo smell a bit like the toilet to me.

[boonboon] 15/8/2018 12:27

I think we've learnt a lot about trying to over achieve growth this year. It looks like we're being quite restrained now. Roots in more superdrug stores July, Boots stores August then a good gap to ensure we can fulfil any unexpected high demand from Boots and to give time to build up stock for Tesco in November.I expect the next thing we'll see is SkinnyTan in Boots in January or February (there's some confusion over when the exclusivity ends).Once we're in more stores and therefore bigger monthly revenues it will start to allow quicker expansion. With superdrug, Boots and Tesco we've got the UK reasonably well covered. I'd like to see more international expansion for Roots next.

[cgequityinvest] 15/8/2018 12:14

Purley - agreed - there needs to be real focus on driving production and operational improvement - hopefully that is near the top of the new CEO's priority list.

[beetroot juice] 15/8/2018 12:05

Yes there is as previously mentioned a Holding RNS Due.. No Wonder buying locked down yesterday online. This order needed filling sub 148p..Nice

More to come here.. Keep selling Our Buyer will take em all...

[beetroot juice] 15/8/2018 12:04

Theres Yesterdays Buy 310k at 147p..

[gregpeck7] 15/8/2018 12:03

More huge buys... whatever the noise says , someone very large has been accumulating...

[thepurleyking] 15/8/2018 11:57

cgequityinvest:
"As ever it all depends on whether you buy into the forecast growth figs - the tone of the Sept report that accompanies the full year figs to June 2018 should provide some clues."

Agree that the forecasts accuracy are key. I guess they will be what they will be in the end, but the company just has to make sure it doesn't have any more stock/delivery issues which could affect sales.
I don't have complete faith that this will be the case, but overall this looks like a good value buy at these levels.

[cgequityinvest] 15/8/2018 11:51

For whats its worth Warpaint (bigger and more established) is trading on an EV/Sales multiple of circa 4. Warpaint has an operating margin of just over 20% - thats what Inno needs to aspire to achieve over the next 12/18 months.

[boonboon] 15/8/2018 11:35

They've actually sold 163 units. Which I think is encouraging. In store sales will be higher than online sales.

[cgequityinvest] 15/8/2018 11:32

I bought in here in mid June following the trading announcement.

There is as others have commented a lot of rubbish posted on here - most of which i have filtered. Personally i am not interested in the day to day share price movements but looking at where this company might be in 2/3 years time.

There are undoubtedly risks and the management team need to regain credibility after presiding over a profits warning and a collapse in the share price. I also sense that they need to focus on production and operational efficiencies. The free float looks small and a small rise in volume leads to significant swings in the day to day share price.

Its interesting comparing the two recent broker notes issued by FINNCAP (8th Aug) and Capital Network (10th Aug). The latter is paid for research so its needs to be treated as such but suggests that management believe the Finncap figures are too conservative - on the basis the figs are like for like.

eg for y/e ending June 2019 Finncap have turnover/eps forecast of 14.4m and 7.4. Capital Network (management?) are showing 14.22 and 9.19. I suspect this increase led to the price rise seen end of last week.

So if you believe the Cap Network figs this is trading on a prospective p/e of about 14.5. The Cap Network figs also show forecast net cash of £1.9m in June 19.

Interestingly both brokers use a EV/sales multiple as a valuation tool with both suggesting that the current multiple of circa 1.5x is modest and given the growth potential a figure of 2+ is justifiable - hence their price targets.

As ever it all depends on whether you buy into the forecast growth figs - the tone of the Sept report that accompanies the full year figs to June 2018 should provide some clues. I think this will prove more valuable in determining the company's prospects than what is happening to the share price on any one particular minute/hour/day!

DYOR

[gregpeck7] 15/8/2018 11:25

I have all the products in a basket that boots are selling and they are all consistently falling.. real time monitoring ...

[backpacker] 15/8/2018 11:24

PK, my thoughts exactly

[rawnsley] 15/8/2018 11:21

Boots no longer on "stock coming soon".

Restocked. Very promising and I will look at re-adding.

This suggests a Boots stock issue as Tallprawn mentioned, and not, importantly, an IDP issue.

LSE have some good figures on how many they can buy. Good sales going through and which allows for some rough calculations to be made.

Very roughly, 300 units sold online. Assuming a £5 selling price = £1,500 a week x 52 = £78,000 p/a

Assuming the stores also sell 300 a week, that's £156,000 p/a burn rate.

Obviously, this is the first week, although also worth noting this is starting part way through the calendar year.

However, on those calculations, I am optimistic

[thepurleyking] 15/8/2018 11:20

backpacker - I learned BASIC 30 years ago and think that is pretty accurate? Although didn't put a line space in :)
I'm not saying I have anything massively groundbreaking to add, but am interested in reading people's thoughts about things, beyond "It'll go up" or "It'll go down".

[anusol] 15/8/2018 11:07

sorry but its extremely disrespectful to associate people with mental health or learning difficulties as been loonies and being thrown in the 'bin'.

[vanadiumx] 15/8/2018 11:03

PK - totally agree. It's like a loony bin in here.

[backpacker] 15/8/2018 10:51

PK, you know nothing about programming

What happens to 20?

[thepurleyking] 15/8/2018 10:48

I was hoping to read this board for some discussion on the actual company.
Its like a kindergarten in here...... actually that is doing a disservice to kindergarterns.

10 PRINT "It'll be 200p by next week"
20 PRINT "It'll be 85p by next week"
30 GOTO 10

/board