Inland Homes Share Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 29/9/2017 12:50

Does anyone know what value Wilton Park is carried in the books at currently as it has to be assumed that once planning consent is achieved that value has to move up significantly to about £125m surely ?

[spud] 29/9/2017 12:38

Too cheap? Talk about stating the blindingly obvious..!

Thanks for the post tho'.

spud

[skyship] 29/9/2017 12:21

Subscription site so won't paste the whole article; but the end summary is as follows:

IC View

Inland Homes has greatly increased its construction activities and sweats its pre-development assets for rent. Demand for consented land remains strong, and there is also a healthy forward order book. The shares are down marginally from our buy tip (63p, 18 August 2016), and trade at nearly half forecast NAV; that’s too cheap. Buy.

[cheshire man] 29/9/2017 08:04

Will be interesting to see what he has to say :-)

[mfhmfh] 29/9/2017 01:14

Tipped in yesterday's online IC. Printed version will be available today.

[spud] 29/9/2017 00:10

In physics, a quantum (plural: quanta) is the minimum amount of any physical entity involved in an interaction. The fundamental notion that a physical property may be "quantized" is referred to as "the hypothesis of quantization".[1] This means that the magnitude of the physical property can take on only certain discrete values.For example, a photon is a single quantum of light (or of any other form of electromagnetic radiation), and can be referred to as a "light quantum". Similarly, the energy of an electron bound within an atom is also quantized, and thus can only exist in certain discrete values. The fact that electrons can only exist at discrete energy levels in an atom causes atoms to be stable, and hence matter in general is stable.Quantization is one of the foundations of the much broader physics of quantum mechanics. Quantization of the energy and its influence on how energy and matter interact (quantum electrodynamics) is part of the fundamental framework for understanding and describing nature.spud

[yump] 28/9/2017 22:09

The "quantum" of the business.

FFS that's a misuse even by currently liberal tolerance for its misuse.

I know let's just use random adjectives and nouns to describe anything we want so as to sound educated and credible. Oh what irony.

Quantum means quite a lot of things, but it certainly doesn't mean size.

[standish11] 28/9/2017 19:07

Director shareholding



The Company was advised on 28 September 2017 that Stephen Wicks, a director, purchased 100,000 shares at 58.5 pence per share. His resulting beneficial holding is now at 13,837,332 ordinary shares.

[spud] 28/9/2017 15:10

Re 2330 - The Market anticipated poor results which didn't materialise hence the uplift today.

You can call me out down the track if it retraces majorly but imo there's a floor forming here from whence we should see an appreciation in the price.

Oh and it pays a decent divi which improves annually...

spud

[igbertsponk] 28/9/2017 14:55

Actual NAV doesn't reflect the steal that Beaconsfield was - evidenced by the £350m GDV of that one site.
Or Cheshunt where Inland are in for £8m yet have a 50% share of the profits of 1,400 properties ! So that's £5,714 for 50% of a plot.You may wish to value those at cost, I don't.

[horndean eagle] 28/9/2017 14:45

Market does agree. Hence why the shares are trading on a discount to book value. I think we may have all been seduced somewhat by INL deciding to quote ERPA nav. If you focus on actual nav we are only on a modest discount. Housebuilders trade on a multiple of book value because of the huge return on equity. INL return on equity is pretty poor in comparison (sub 5% even on a geared basis relative to housebuilders at 20% iirc) I can't see much of a re-rating here until that improves. Have to hope cycle holds firm up until then.

[igbertsponk] 28/9/2017 14:42

Have to disagree about bad results.
Last year's massive ERPA NAV increase primarily reflected the progress at Beaconsfield. This year Beaconsfield appears to have done very little, but the old MOD houses there have ticked up a bit, and Inland has got planning permission to extend and modernise them all. The rest of the site is still going through the planning process, but with the application now in (and one assume they've pretty much got it agreed with the planners) there should be good news on this soon. S
Same can be said about some of the other mega sites - e.g. Cheshunt.

Profits when you have such large projects will of course be lumpy. I'm very pleased with progress.

As for the share price, check out the large holders. Institutions (except for the canny Hargreave Hale) can't figure out where to pigeonhole Inland so have steered clear of it. Now they're turning into more of a traditional housebuilder, I expect interest to increase.

[daneswooddynamo] 28/9/2017 14:41

The market has delivered its verdict over the last 12 months when the sector generally has massively outperformed inl

[spud] 28/9/2017 14:25

Re 2325 - If the results were so bad, why are we up over 1%? Clearly the Market doesn't agree...spud

[igbertsponk] 28/9/2017 13:56

Results presentation on website now

[horndean eagle] 28/9/2017 13:44

Actually a poor set of results. ERPA NAV was up only 4% on the year. This means the profits they are reporting were already factored into last years ERPA NAV. They should be doing much better in the environment we are in. I accept planning is hard work but they have made progress on that front this year and that should have led to some material uplifts. Building out projects should have delivered much higher margins as well. A refocus is required here. I think they acknowledge that. Need to get on and deliver now.

[cheshire man] 28/9/2017 12:51

Broker Forecast News



Inland Homes hikes divi as profits rise
28th September 2017, 07:30

Inland Homes has reported a robust financial performance and significant strategic land successes in the year to the end of June.

Pre-tax profits rose to £18.1 million (2016 restated: £15.7 million), net of a revaluation uplift of £1.5 million (2016: £18 million) on the investment properties at Wilton Park and the board has proposed a 33% increase in final dividend to 1.2p (2016: 0.9 p) per share.

Other highlights: - EPRA NAV 91.88p (2016 restated: 88.22p) - up 4.1%

- Adjusted EPRA NAV 96.22p (2016 restated: 92.34p) - up 4.2%

- 12.2% increase in net asset value to £130.6 million (2016 restated: £116.3 million)

- Improved debt maturity profile, with 100% of group borrowings now due in more than one year and over 50% due in more than three years. Chief executive Stephen Wicks said: 'We are pleased to report another set of strong financial results and a good second half which was driven by continued growth across both the established and newer parts of the business.

'We have again increased revenue through land disposals and the sale of private homes, and during the year ended 30 June 2017 have secured planning permission for nearly 1,856 plots.

'Additionally, we are also focused on expanding our partnership activities, building on the three deals agreed during the period, which will have a positive impact on revenue, profits and cash flow.

'We will continue to develop our in-house construction platform, improve margins on home sales and utilise our considerable skills in successfully bringing land through the planning system.

'This will underpin our progressive dividend policy and create long term value for shareholders.'

[daneswooddynamo] 28/9/2017 12:51

"Growing quantum of the business"..."on ever more sites"... From the wh Ireland note

Absolutely, a step change in the potential scale over the last 18 months which may ironically have depressed the share price as investors fret about increased gearing and ability to become more of a housebuilder

Imo an overt strategy by the management to make inl more attractive and worthwhile a situation to be taken over by a larger player particularly given they sold their last company

Maybe have to wait a while for beaconsfield to get the green light given its financial potential and impact

[spob] 28/9/2017 12:35

Any comments from the house broker ?



Nominated adviser and broker

Stifel Nicolaus Europe Ltd
7th Floor
One Broadgate
London
EC2M 2QS

[soundbuy] 28/9/2017 12:08

WH Ireland (H/T FT AV)

INL’s FY-17A (year to June) results this morning demonstrate that the business continues to develop well and to enjoy a range of meaningful opportunities. PBT of £18.1m (+15%) is c.5% ahead of forecasts, and with the forward order book 47% ahead YoY at £33m (FY-16A: £22.5m), the key point in our view is the growing quantum of the business overall, which is on ever more sites. Net asset value at £130.6m is also well ahead (+12%). Reflecting the positive progress, DPS has been raised 33% to 1.2p (0.9p).

Progress has been broad-based. The land portfolio shows an increased landbank at 6,936 plots – of which nearly a third are consented / enjoy resolution grant consent, and which represents a new level for the group. This compares with 17% in the prior period. Diverse projects include notably the Wilton Park, Beaconsfield, planning application for



.... less than 350 homes and commercial development – a £350m GDV scheme overall which also illustrates the long-term nature of INL’s land model builds building value over a period of time as the company works towards maximum value realisation.

A caveat highlighted by the company is the ever-laborious nature of the planning system. However the specific drivers for INL’s brownfield land-based business remain very positive in our view and we retain our Buy rating. A more detailed comment will follow in due course.

[igbertsponk] 28/9/2017 10:58

Wicks has bought 100k shares, nice to see he agrees they're dirt cheap.

[cheshire man] 28/9/2017 08:59

Happy to hold here and agree with spob on an opportunistic offer, I too would like to reap the full rewards of INL going forward :-) DYOR

[spob] 28/9/2017 08:50

be interesting to see the house brokers comments

also an update from Simon Thompson in the next week

and we may see directors snapping up some more cheap shares

[spob] 28/9/2017 08:44

the only concern i have is that another builder could step in with a cheap opportunistic offer before we get to see the benefit of those development gains

which is a risk whilst we sit at this daft share price