Infrastrata Share Discussion Threads

[spudtheplumber] 19/8/2018 18:47

Phased development bringing caverns online much sooner will do wonders for the economics imo.Also longer term the potential to double project life and add many more caverns should be company making.We wait........

[jackthelad5] 19/8/2018 18:34

Divmad asked the question and I am only too happy to answer based on what I know even if it is a rough estimate which is what he/she wanted. An estimate based on the fact that a lender capable and willing to put up such a large chunk of money is going to want a decent percentage stake in IMSL

[mirabeau] 19/8/2018 17:27

Boxer

Not on Twitter but follow its content, intermittently. Social media will prove the death of truth as we know it!

Divmad

You're asking questions that can't be answered mate. Let's wait for the flow of real info before we start making judgements about the levels of equity available to INFA shareholders

INFA produced this presentation but to be frank it's hardly up to date is it. So, let's wait for the 3 contractors to deliver their reports (before xmas?) before we can start to make accurate judgements informed by actual, real world reports

WSP appointment (appointed, June 2018) - 'The Owner's Engineer provides a degree of technical and commercial due diligence for InfraStrata as the Project advances.'

Let WSP deliver their judgement before we start throwing around figures based on outdated information

We're all somewhat in the dark, just like you are.

If Wood's prepared to spend £175k on stock then I'm happy to be involved

[jackthelad5] 19/8/2018 17:16

I see perhaps 2-3 bag potential from this level bearing in mind the equity stake any major funds are going to want in return for putting up such a huge amount (£300M-£350M)
So I see good upside here if they pull this off. The £67M NPV was based on an outdated model scenario of a 20yr project life. Now we potentially have a 40yr life of project we can assume a potential NPV of around £130M.
I would think any major fund assuming we have just one funder for the whole amount will want perhaps a 60-70% stake in IMSL so although this will dilute the value at Infrastrata level it will mean further potential returns for shareholders and means the project will go ahead. Can't see this reaching 10p as some suggest especially with over a billion shares plus more when warrants are converted but I would imagine once construction is under way by Q2/Q3 of 2019 that the share price could be at the 2pish mark

[divmad] 19/8/2018 16:49

Hi hazl. Thanks for making the effort to respond. I wish I could have stimulated others to do likewise and get a debate going. Yes, you make valid points in favour of the pre-construction costs being lowered, which will assist Infa in getting over the line to a FID without too much more dilution. But the essential question I posed remains unanswered. How much of that £67mn of NPV will a future owner of IMSL be prepared to offer? A range rather than a point estimate. And it's just a speculation based on previous similar type deals anyway. So is Infa a double, a treble or more, based on what we know already, to FID?

[hazl] 19/8/2018 16:11

Am going to find it difficult all day today I can see that, but if I could remind you that the Project has pre-qualification for the UK Government Guarantees Scheme that they believe will cover 60% of cost at a beneficial lending rate and they have been pre-approved for it.
Again a number of parties have expressed an interest in collaborating with InfraStrata to progress the Project. Active discussions continue with these counterparties, including contractors, gas storage operators and oil and gas focused lenders. The Board is focused on maximising shareholder value and may also consider a sale of the Project and/or its assets.



In this article it clearly states the aspect of non-dilutive construction financing,indications so that fits with the words uttered earlier in the year
in an interview I heard.
As you suggest nothing is written in stone but it does look somewhat rosier having the UK Govt behind it from a finance point of view smaller margin
lending ,with the banks
at a guaranteed level and the EU

'Strong local, national and european government support:

UK Government Guarantee Scheme backing 100% of the principal and interest payments of any project finance debt
European Project of Common Interest which enabled grant funding for Development (accessed) & possibility for grant funding for Construction

EU Grant funding support €4m, €2.4 remains to be drawn
Ideally situated to make use of the SNIP (Scotland Northern Ireland pipeline) for Gas trading & fast access to supplies / storage across the UK'

from above link.

Sorry not got my notes here but thought better write something in case I haven't time later.

[hazl] 19/8/2018 11:46

Yes divmad ,have some relevant notes written up on that, but visitors just arrived will post later.

[boxerdogz] 19/8/2018 10:39

hazl
19 Aug '18 - 09:22 - 2214 of 2215
0 1 0
I have only just started out on twitter boxer...a relatively new twit!

Good source of info IMO.

[divmad] 19/8/2018 09:35

This is from the CPR report of 2017:

"This revenue model formed the basis for InfraStrata determining the Project's cashflow over a 20 year period. InfraStrata's economic model assumes a capital expense and pre-operations operating expense of £308m in aggregate, utilising 65% debt. InfraStrata has estimated the net present value (NPV) of the Project to be £67m at an 8% discount rate and £38m at a 10% discount rate."

What I can't get my head round is what portion of this mid-case NPV estimate of £67mn might accrue to Infa in a corporate transaction. It's plain for all to see that the required capex of £300mn is beyond the reach of Infa to go all the way by itself and end up with that NPV valuation.

What percentage of that NPV would a willing industry owner/operator be wiling to pay Infa to assume equity ownership of IMSL, knowing they will have to fork out roughly £100mn of equity and arrange £200mn of government-guaranteed loan finance in order to achieve an 11% IRR?

The good news is that if this operator pays , say, 20% of NPV, or £13mn,that's about double the current share price, so the upside is there. I'm just querying the extent of the potential upside.

Thoughts, anyone?

[hazl] 19/8/2018 09:22

I have only just started out on twitter boxer...a relatively new twit!

[boxerdogz] 18/8/2018 15:38

hazl , I know your on twitter. Mirabeau you too ?

Me @BoxDgz

[hazl] 18/8/2018 10:49

Thanks to L S E.

[spudtheplumber] 17/8/2018 17:42

https://twitter.com/InfraStrata_Plc/status/1030464358428692480?s=19Good to see pr increased Pictures from the site

[hazl] 17/8/2018 17:03

And a little 'w ' on the chart bodes well...imo


8-)

[hazl] 17/8/2018 17:02

....not a bad close for a Friday.

[big7ime] 17/8/2018 16:59

Malcy blog on Monday should have it

[hazl] 17/8/2018 15:34

THANKS BOXERDOGZ

[hazl] 17/8/2018 13:37

Directors' Share DealingsFilter Transactions by Size
Transaction Holding
Director/Date/Type Amount Price (GBX) Value (£) Amount % Additional Info
John MacInnes Wood
09/08/2018 | Purchase 2,031,779 0.59 11,987.00 38,270,049 3.71
John MacInnes Wood
09/08/2018 | Purchase 689,352 0.59 4,060.00 38,959,401 3.77
John MacInnes Wood
03/08/2018 | Purchase 1,268,419 0.63 7,989.00 35,286,354 3.42
John MacInnes Wood
03/08/2018 | Purchase 951,916 0.63 5,989.00 36,238,270 3.51
Mr. Graham Victor Lyon
27/07/2018 | Purchase 3,099,174 0.48 15,000.00 12,087,693 1.17
Matthew Paul Beardmore
27/07/2018 | Purchase 5,165,289 0.48 25,000.00 6,666,192 0.65
John MacInnes Wood
27/07/2018 | Purchase 2,248,428 0.33 7,501.00 34,017,935 3.29
Mr. Graham Victor Lyon
24/07/2018 | Purchase 1,889,345 0.54 10,108.00 5,889,345 0.57
John MacInnes Wood
24/07/2018 | Purchase 16,652,284 0.52 86,092.00 31,769,507 3.08


from earlier

[hazl] 17/8/2018 13:34

recent
d purchases

Director DealingsTraded Action Notifier Price Amount Value
more...
09/08/2018 Purchase John MacInnes Wood 0.59 2,031,779 11,987.00
09/08/2018 Purchase John MacInnes Wood 0.59 689,352 4,060.00
03/08/2018 Purchase John MacInnes Wood 0.63 1,268,419 7,989.00
03/08/2018 Purchase John MacInnes Wood 0.63 951,916 5,989.00

[hazl] 17/8/2018 12:18

...it's easy to get bogged down by short-term movements but I believe the general trend is up at this point.

[mirabeau] 17/8/2018 11:38

Someone give Malcy a nudge on Twitter. we want an update from this INFA interview!

[mirabeau] 17/8/2018 11:09

I believe there's been heavy dilution over the years. Reassuring the market that this form of company financing is now at end is essential unless of course a placing is justified through demand from investors. It's desperate placings to 'keep the lights on' that the market truly despises and it will hammer a company's valuation as a result, understandably so

I'm looking for Malcy's update from yesterday. There's nowt yet on his site. Is he sworn to secrecy?! To be fair, any update from his meeting would be welcome. New info. is always welcome

She's off again!! Go on my son