Indigovision Share Discussion Threads

[simon templar qc] 09/11/2012 09:47

It was more than "steady" when V wanted to oust the directors it was all systems go full steam ahead!

It stinks of manipulation if u ask me.

[aishah] 09/11/2012 09:37

SHARES in Scottish video security systems specialist IndigoVision tumbled 15.5% yesterday on a trading update but chairman Hamish Grossart declared the company was telling the market it was "steady as she goes".

[simon templar qc] 09/11/2012 09:31

Well it looks dodgy to me ! Plenty of accounting methods a good FD can do to distort revenue and sales.

[kiwihope] 09/11/2012 09:04

Iain,

Normally orders are contracts agreed for the supply of product at some future date. So orders growing at 10%+ is good as this is sales that will be realised at some stage. And they are running 10%+ ahead of, I guess H1 last year. We just don't know when delivery will occur. I don't know leadtimes but I would guess in H1 but certainly the current year.

Revenue is invoices issued, which is not quite the same as money received, that can be 60-90 days later.

This assumes IND don't operate any dodgy revenue recognition practices.

[iain123] 09/11/2012 08:55

From the final results:

"Double digit growth in sales and order intake has continued into the first seven weeks"

From the AGM:

"order intake grew by over 10 per cent"

Is it the case that 'revenues' is monies received and order intake is the true growth rate? (i.e potentially large projects with payment milestones spread apart but payments not yet received)

So can assume that growth hasn't slowed but was running at 10+% for 7 weeks and 10+% (assume that's not 11 but more like 10.2) overall for the first 13 weeks with potential to improve towards the 2nd half. (which is traditionally a better half for IND anyway)

Or am I missing something?

[melody9999] 09/11/2012 08:11

When the special dividend was announced, that was perceived as a very bullish act. It remains that we will receive the special dividend, and therefore it remains that the company are confident about its future prospects. But in the short term, as other have mentioned, the sales revnenues are, and always have been, lumpy.

[kiwihope] 09/11/2012 08:04

cr,

Let's see what the full year brings.

I for one never really noticed the 20%. I noted "double digit" but I know how up and down theses sorts of company can be.

It just takes time...

[cockneyrebel] 09/11/2012 07:45

Gengulphus - I'm not alone in thinking sales were running at 20% up on last year, most investors thought that's what they meant.

There was no mention of lower margins in the last statement.

If I misread what the co was saying at the last results I wasn't alone, everyone seemed to think they were doing 20% sales growth including PP amd SCSW.

"Double digit growth in sales and order intake has continued into the first seven weeks of the current year. At this early stage there is every reason to believe that the current year will be a good one." That sounds a lot more upbeat than sales are up 6% on lower margins and earnings will be skewed to H2.

Something was known to OV and SEP to make them want to dump the lot at circa 340p when the mkt price was way higher imo - they managed to get out of 20%+ holdings higher than most will be able to sell 5k for.

I wasn't saying IND will go to £1, I was saying that's what OV would wait for having got out imo, before bidding again. If I had taken my stake out in cash having touted a bid in the low two hundreds then his ego will be to come back at a later date, get it for what he originally said and bank £1 a share cash and say 'I told you so' imo.

However anyone wants to blame investors for misreading it tho, I'd say it was the co that made references to salespeople and staff now having 'a spring in their step', paying 70p special divis and referring to 6% sales growth on lower margins as 'double digit sales and order growth' with no reference to lower margins.

All imo - but if reading that 20% sales growth was misread can I ask why you never tempered investors expectations here a little sooner if it's now so obvious?

CR

[exotic] 09/11/2012 07:42

kiwi, I've long since given up on trying to change the irrational investor mentality. I think it's better just to accept it and focus on the fact that there will be times when you can use their irrationality to your advantage.

By the way, I'm not surprised to see the huge lack of confidence in HG reflected in the AGM voting:

4. To re-elect Hamish
Grossart as a director
of the Company.

AGAINST: 220,650
VOTE WITHELD: 562,254

[kiwihope] 08/11/2012 23:34

Oh dear!

What a lot of fuss. It's obvious some of you have never worked in industry - I can't believe the short-term thinking. We're talking about 13 weeks and sales of 6% growth rather than ... well 20% in 18 months so I don't know what in 13 weeks. For goodness sakes, I think you just expected to make an easy killing and move on. Well its not always that easy.

I just can't believe this reaction, but then I should really as I've seen it before....

[simon templar qc] 08/11/2012 22:39

Has anyone considered there may have been some sales brought forward in last results due to shenanigans a while ago. Not impossible with clever accounting.

[allstar4eva] 08/11/2012 22:14

Sales slightly up.Overheads up.Margins down.This is not bullish. By no means will it determine performance for the year which may turn out to be in line or better but the above statements do not inspire confidence at this stage.

[allstar4eva] 08/11/2012 22:01

The problem here is as raised by CR there was no mention of lower margins in results. The tone of those results were extremely bullish. The share price reaction then and today suggests that the market agrees that the tone of the AGM statement did not match those of the results.Nowhere in the statement did they say that they were currently on track to meet market expectations for the year.

[exotic] 08/11/2012 21:51

IND sales are historically lumpy, an apparent poor 6 weeks is certainly no yard stick.

When economic times are better and the world is building again, these will be multiple times higher.

[fangorn2] 08/11/2012 21:15

PP was, I suspect, referring to your

"when these decline to £1 he'll move in and make a bid again"

as exaggerating!!

Personally I think you're doing more than exaggerating.

Sensationalist scaremongering for sure. There is little chance these will get to £1.Even if margins and sales fall 50%.

But as you say. You're long gone so doesn't matter. PP would've filled his boots long before £1,as i suspect, would most other long term investors here. (Not counting myself on that front fyg in case you were worried about my objectivity!)

[cockneyrebel] 08/11/2012 19:27

PP, I think no matter what, the funds that bought will feel mugged in that thaey bought based on the trading update at the time and they are now effectively locked in.

Another point. Sales have been running at 6%. If they are to meet the 20% sales growth they alluded to they are going to need to see sales growth of 30% in H2.

If you look at these from brand new eyes you are looking at earnings growth of circa 10%-15%, falling margins and a fwd PE of 11. An illiquid stock and one where they'v just given all theier cash away which was a nice buffer.

You have to ask, do they really know what they are doing?

My bet is OV had his cash out @ 325p, he'll wait on the sidelines and when these decline to £1 he'll move in and make a bid again @ the price touted previously. He'll effectively got these for half the price that he was willing to bid last time when you take into acvcount the cash he's banked.

As for HG - he looks a bit incompetent after today's statement on top of the last one. Just glad I had the divi out of them.

CR

[snatander] 08/11/2012 18:25

downturn and handed the cash back

goose cooked in time for crimbo

[apad] 08/11/2012 17:34

Interesting comments SRSM. I had been wondering what was special about IND. Particularly as there are so many academic departments that do vision systems.
I presume by encoder they mean software encoders.
I don't see much in the way of barriers to entry but they have a great customer list.
apad