Iog Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 22/12/2022 15:29

Their original deck was an annualised 45p / therm. So on the one hand just as well that prices are a multiple, on the other, that is a core part of the investment thesis.

BTW I was pleased they made the release on the 22nd and not on the 23rd, or worse after midday on the 23rd. There will be some companies that do the latter, as if investors will somehow not notice come Wednesday open.

[bountyhunter] 22/12/2022 12:06

So what's the downside lol?

The Blythe water issue will be resolved by the Blythe H2 well to be drilled next. Southwark will significantly boost production in ~3 weeks time. Pricing is over £3/therm which is many multiples of the planned price, fortunately. Development drilling will be ongoing largely at Sunak's expense.

[hpcg] 22/12/2022 11:13

H2 revenue £107mn*. R.E. Blythe H2 they probably near enough shut in H1 and use the fault for pressure support. It depends on the shape of the reservoir, the lopes H1 may reach, how it drains, where local highs are etc. As important is being able to drain Elgood a.s.a.p. I guess, but don't know for sure that the kit can be used on another field / satellite. There are a couple of similar sized prospects in the portfolio. Permitting should be rapid in this day and age, and I would think partner approval would also be forthcoming without any fight at all.

The market clearly wants to see Southwark in production before committing, and who can blame them? I would expect the price to drift higher as those close to the action see incremental phase gates signed off.

* average price x average production x days / msqft to therm
2.626 x 22000 x 180 / 96.7
Please correct if I am being obtuse here!

[wskill] 22/12/2022 10:41

So around 220,000 therms a day presently which will increase by 150% with A2 onstream in a few weeks, for a market cap of only £80m less than 2 months production at present prices.Seems rather cheap to me a decent update for a change from IOG.

[tidy 2] 22/12/2022 09:59

Lots of presumptions in your book there ash.....Now back to the real world.

[bountyhunter] 22/12/2022 09:25

Yes there is, Blythe H2 Q1 23, a big plus.

[ashkv] 22/12/2022 09:24

Market has reacted negatively as existing wells not producing at even rock bottom H2 revised guidance levels, no update on water handling issues being resolved, Southwark delayed along with valuable production (that is if Southwark flows as expected - IOG appear to have a poor understanding on field reservoirs) and most importantly on a near term forecast new CEO has shot his credibility by not even delivering on an easy win of near term guidance as to Southwark online by end 2022 from only a few weeks ago!!!

[bountyhunter] 22/12/2022 09:23

I was about to say the same Dh, the drilling of the 2nd Blythe well immediately after Southwark comes onstream mid January more than compensates for the 2 week delay on Southwark and the pricing is good.

[wisteria2] 22/12/2022 09:22

i like the update.. January looking to be a busy month, my guess the recent pullback in share price will be reversed now. GLA

[tidy 2] 22/12/2022 08:25

Average for the whole year 295p therm and average flows fairly consistent given the whole picture eoy

[tidy 2] 22/12/2022 08:23

Yes the fracture was in the geological structure as opposed to a damaged well which I think deserves a mention. This has been addressed for the f future on the other well. Looking like a strong turnaround going forward.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 22/12/2022 08:09

hedged above the current spot price is not a bad thing.
:)

[bountyhunter] 22/12/2022 08:07

Yes tidy, I also noticed those hedging prices at £3+, good pricing although only relating to two months. Hedging by IOG does make me a little nervous though on the flip side until more assets are onstream.

Re the water that was most likely to be a one off due to the unexpected fracture in the initial Blythe well. H2 should largely mediate for that.

[tidy 2] 22/12/2022 07:50

Oooh ash sounds bitter ;) Still :)

[ashkv] 22/12/2022 07:43

Glad I exited my IOG at around 30p flattish from my most recent entry - once again new management proving to be equally incompetent as the recently jettisoned garbage!!!

Southwark delayed, guidance lowered for H2 production - will Southwark be online in January to take take advantage of winter prices, will it have water, other issues, Becton issues etc...

What a sad case IOG is turning out to be!!! Hopefully an offer comes in and puts this firm to bed!!!!

[dunderheed] 22/12/2022 07:42

I've got to admit am happy with that update, ready for New Year test results maybe?

[tidy 2] 22/12/2022 07:39

Yes and also Southwark A2 well test and clean-up planned for next week I expect a further update for that personallyNice hedge price also btw don't you think??

[bountyhunter] 22/12/2022 07:30

What did I say lol, Southwark now mid-January!
At least a second Blythe well is to be drilled directly after Southwark A1 well in 1H 2023 to mitigate the water problem due to the fracture in Blythe H1. That's a good move.

Importantly, we have made good progress at Southwark, with the A2 well expected onstream by mid-January. The A1 well is then expected to strengthen our production profile from early Q2. With Blythe H2 and the Kelham and Goddard appraisal wells to follow, 2023 is set to be a high-impact year for IOG.

[tidy 2] 21/12/2022 12:10

Cold snap expected to push prices higher. Storage tanks around 70% now below the average 85%. Low and behold US attempting to supplement demand to the U.K.

[tidy 2] 21/12/2022 11:47

The eu announced a new ceiling on gas prices last week as did the U.K earlier; remember governments stepped in along with the sanctions and were shocked when putin retaliated who would have guessed. Then there was a scramble to fill gas stock for the winter and the governments forward bought supplies sending prices north. All this ballooned gas prices. Then the US bombed the pipeline keeping the prices high. Demand is not subsiding there is just a slight reprieve atm before the next episode. All planned

[bloomberg2] 21/12/2022 08:30

The market always looks ahead !!

[therealdeal25] 21/12/2022 08:16

Don’t know why Gas prices are falling, it’s winter, in the summer Gas went to a record high, Madness! Now we are using the gas and not just for the BBQ it’s ridiculous, they cane everybody for retail has prices, and yet drop the wholesale prices, shouldn’t retail prices come down now as well? Or are we just going to keep getting shafted both ways?