Iog Share Discussion Threads

[dunderheed] 28/11/2022 13:22

Well ashkv, perhaps you should have listened to me over the (many?!) years?
This company has had atrocious "management" for years from balance sheet structure to simplest of operations and has been a bit of an industry laughing stock for a long time, IMHO.
However hopefully Fiona will be gone soon (what value has she ever added ANYWHERE?!) and then the partially new team look far far more promising than before, so I can see a RAPID revaluation from here over the next 6 months.
As ever all IMHO and DYOR folks!!
PS I have probably put kibosh on that now and price will drop substantially over the next 6 months, lol!! Best of luck all.

[ashkv] 28/11/2022 13:03

Follow this share Dunderhead - and when I was a novice got taken in and lost a lot of $$$ to rampers - believe full picture is helpful!!

And I forgot to mention the unknown high and increasing Water cut in the fields that IOG operates!!!

Blythe Field 
Blythe production has been constrained by liquids handling capacity at the Bacton terminal and the need for offsite storage, processing and disposal of saline aqueous liquids being produced from the H1 well. H1 was drilled into the field's southeast high, which was considered the optimal route to drain the field. Latest analysis of production and reservoir pressure data from the first six months of H1 production indicates that the well is located in a reservoir compartment which is materially baffled from the central and northwest areas of the field and will ultimately recover an estimated 29 billion cubic feet (BCF), compared to the management estimated reserves of 1P/2P/3P 25.4/42.5/55.8 BCF. The Company is evaluating options to further optimise recovery.


Elgood Field
Production and reservoir pressure data from the six months since First Gas at Elgood has also been technically assessed. The Elgood production rate recently fell below 10 mmscf/d and is expected to decline further by year end. The decline in flow rate has been faster than anticipated given the pre-production estimated reserves range of 1P/2P/3P 9.7/14.1/18.3 BCF. The latest analysis indicates that gas is not flowing across the NW-SE oriented intra-field fault to the wellbore as expected. As a result, the most likely ultimate recovery from the field is now assessed to be 7.5 BCF, of which approximately 4 BCF has been produced to date.

 
Combined flow rates from Blythe and Elgood over 2H 2022 to date have averaged 28.6 mmscf/d, at a volume weighted average price of 258 p/therm. Based on this, and noting the upcoming four-week outage, the expected average gross production rate over 2H 2022 has therefore been revised from 30-50 mmscf/d to 22-28 mmscf/d.

RNS Number : 3337D
IOG PLC
19 October 2022

[ashkv] 28/11/2022 13:00

So far today - not exactly overwhelming buys coming in - same situation as Friday when a good amount more of sells vs buys

Vol. Sold 5,090,114
Sold Value £935,797.94
Vol. Bought 3,418,655
Bought Value £620,565.90

[dunderheed] 28/11/2022 12:54

Thanks a lot ashkv - really appreciated - but why all this altruistic behaviour matey?

[ashkv] 28/11/2022 12:41

Market Cap is meaningless - Enterprise Value (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) is how to view the current worth of the business.

On that basis SQZ with half a billion dollars of net cash and no debt is woefully undervalued compared to leveraged IOG with two fields that have spectacularly under-performed and had several downgrades / production guidance cuts this year along with reserve life!!!

It would be sensible to expect Southwark to also undergo the same - in which case investors in IOG could be wiped out... SUPER HIGH RISK SHARE AS FIELD DYNAMICS ARE NOT UNDERSTOOD HAVE NOT PERFORMED ANYWHERE CLOSE TO INITIAL CPRs and management expectations!!!

[tidy 2] 28/11/2022 12:04

200k print just now is a buy also from 11:02

[saint in exile] 28/11/2022 11:20

Yeah good volume and a persistent big buyer

[givmesunshine] 28/11/2022 10:26

Someone is mopping these up Friday and today..No matter who sells just gets absorbed

[wisteria2] 28/11/2022 10:24

I think the share price will settle around 20p for a while before moving towards 28p!
Glad to be wrong if moves straight through to 28p gla

[saint in exile] 28/11/2022 10:15

Gap nearly closed

[tidy 2] 28/11/2022 10:12

37m in the bank and production now back on. Then Southwark to ignite the afterburners ;)

[g2theary] 28/11/2022 10:09

If this hits over 20p it's going to start moving fast ;) more news on its way :) 60p for Christmas:D

[smraynot] 28/11/2022 10:09

20p+ here we come.

[tidy 2] 28/11/2022 10:07

Remember SQZ cap is over x8 what IOG is but IOG has 3-4 bags in it to move up and SQZ does not as it stands.

[volsung] 28/11/2022 10:03

I don’t know what happened in 1870

[tidy 2] 28/11/2022 10:03

Let me guess you are ramping SQZ which has moved up from 8p to over 300pIOG holders are getting in early as the early holders such i me did there.

[ashkv] 28/11/2022 09:59

Wow good for the guys who invested at the lows - post today's jump up the share price is back to where it was when IOG announced Blythe and Elgood are much shorter lived assets with lower production/resources - and also announced Southwark Delays - and share price fell 45-50% - all made up now :) :)

With USD100mn plus of debt, two current producing fields for which IOG appears not to have any clue on reservoir dynamics (has periodically lowered resources and production guidance), Current resumed production not guided as to even being at the low level prior to shut down, Southwark production for only one well guided in December - and at what level uncertain, Southwark reservoir dynamics / quality also a big unknown etc etc

Current Enterprise Value for IOG at 18.5p is $182,958,111 for 4150 bpd of production (if production back to levels prior to shutdown)

For Serica (SQZ) at 292p today Enterprise Value (EV)(In USD) is $380,202,987 for 27,000 bpd of production - with no inclusion of a positive North Eigg well for which results are imminent -> let alone existing production which is valued at a $14,000 EV/flowing barrel versus with net cash for SQZ at 60.5% of share price value. Compare this to EV/Barrel of $44,000 for IOG at 4150bpd - insane!!!

Take profits on IOG and buy SQZ - no brainer!!!

[tidy 2] 28/11/2022 09:32

200DMA at 28p. Just saying.

[spitthecat1] 28/11/2022 09:16

God bless king James

[theaviator] 28/11/2022 09:10

Lol No surrender

[tidy 2] 28/11/2022 09:01

Breaking through here. William of orange style ;)

[volsung] 28/11/2022 08:48

The price is now 16.90 which reminds me of the date of the Battle of the Boyne
Just sayin’

[tidy 2] 28/11/2022 08:11

Fire in the belly here moving up.

[alxo82] 27/11/2022 18:46

The Big Orange 18 is sailing back to Southwark to resume the stimulation of A2