Iog Share Discussion Threads

[costax1654x] 11/9/2019 07:32

what column of gas werr they expecting , does anyone know?

[bountyhunter] 11/9/2019 07:26

Missed that bit ebb, sounding better with that.
Presumably a round about way of indicating commerciality!

[costax1654x] 11/9/2019 07:25

I didn't got that as well

[eggbaconandbubble] 11/9/2019 07:24

'Our gas hub strategy implies a relatively low commerciality threshold for this discovery'

Can someone please explain.

[fardels bear] 11/9/2019 07:23

Well done, holders.

[bountyhunter] 11/9/2019 07:22

Yes 49ft sounds good but where are the flow rates? Yet to come? Could be clearer imho. Maybe there's an industry expert here who can offer an opinion.

[costax1654x] 11/9/2019 07:21

Was expecting a bit more!

[shareideas1] 11/9/2019 07:21

Harvey hit 49ft of gas pay

[mynameiskhan] 10/9/2019 17:31

Thanks, was doing the maths, if Harvey hit; then potential cash balance will be £65m (£60m cash payment from f/o deal), I can see £100-150m market cap on success case; 270 BCF (47 MBOE) reserve net to IOG after Harvey success, £65m cash balance with 270 BCF reserve, market cap likely be significantly higher than current cap

[shareideas1] 10/9/2019 16:35

Fair enough although I think you should use the fully diluted share count at 583m for a start. FinnCap reflect the cash payment elsewhere in the net debt line...

[mynameiskhan] 10/9/2019 16:16

I've used 341m shares in issue. Even if apply £240m NPV, still it's worth 41p. In case of 50% F/O, company will get extra funds. I beleive, total cash balance will be likely £80-100m, after Harvey Hit. Current m/c is £65m which will be significantly lower than cash balance.

[shareideas1] 10/9/2019 15:45

FinnCap have mid case $100m for 50% which is close to the $230m you say for 100%Using 583m fully diluted shares in issue and an FX rate of 1.2 usd/gbp gives you their 13.8p per share

[mynameiskhan] 10/9/2019 15:34

I think HARVEY NPV is £230m, which is equivalent to 67p/share. If 50% farm-out, then net will worth 33p + £40m cash (12p).

[shareideas1] 10/9/2019 15:28

Arguably they should be in mid 20s now that the bond is covered and the farmout is a formality... certainly would expect a move higher on Harvey success, but how high will come down to how quickly LOG want to unwind their holding (subject to orderly market conditions)...

[mynameiskhan] 10/9/2019 15:07

Thanks share ideas, do you really think for decent rise on commercial hit? 25-30p?Also, Harvey will unlock JV and additional cash payment from JV partner ?

[marvelman] 10/9/2019 13:36

...apologies...wrong thread...s/b TRIN

[marvelman] 10/9/2019 12:39

30,000 added at 11.79...surely we will see that F'ing seller off soon?

[shareideas1] 10/9/2019 12:23

Sounds like a bit of a balls up - must have seriously misinterpreted their imaging?

[bountyhunter] 10/9/2019 12:16

...not even a 90% CoS as in the case of I3E this morning!

[shareideas1] 10/9/2019 12:05

Should add that the company has assigned a 63% geological chance of success on Harvey, but nothing is ever certain in life...

[shareideas1] 10/9/2019 11:54

According to FinnCap's calculations, the Harvey well mid-case (129bbl) unrisked is worth 13.8p per share to IOG assuming CalEnergy take up their option on 50% (likely). They have 8.2p of risked value in their 60p risked NAV based price objective. So for them a successful mid point well would add c.6p (+10%) to their valuation. Using a straight line extrapolation (understates upside case and overstates the downside case) the upside to their 60p target in a bull case outcome (199bbl) is probably c.12-13p (+20-25%) while the downside at the lower estimate (85bbl) is probably zero. Clearly the bear case of no commercial gas find is removing the 8p from their risked NAV (-15%).What is currently in the share price is anyone's guess - at sub-20p per share IOG is probably not pricing anything for Harvey in my humble opinion...

[mynameiskhan] 10/9/2019 11:36

What's upside potential on Harvey hit?

[marvelman] 09/9/2019 16:44

That is true also DH...unfortunately...we await in anticipation

[dunderheed] 09/9/2019 16:40

Yes and no marvel. You could have hole integrity problems that would potentially lengthen well duration as well?

[marvelman] 09/9/2019 16:26

My thoughts are based on the statement "two months in the success case" which appears to indicate that it would take rather less than that to know whether it was worth evaluating. Certainly no news for another 2 weeks or so would be more likely to indicate that there is an unlikelhood of a bad result...we sit on our hands for now.