Iog Share Discussion Threads

[shareideas1] 09/9/2019 15:22

Don't know the answer to that ... gut says that a month in to the drill they would already know if it was a dud, so the lack of news probably a positive... will try and get a sensible answer, albeit the company are understandably tight lipped right now...

[marvelman] 09/9/2019 15:06

RNS dated 7th August stated "As previously indicated, completion of the well is expected to take approximately two months in the success case"....so when could we expect a less than succesful anouncement if that were the case.

Shareideas...your clarification regarding the bond application was enough to pursuade me to invest for which I am grateful. You appear to have your finger on the pulse here and has saved me from re-inventing the wheel more than once.

[shareideas1] 09/9/2019 15:05

Malcy: Independent Oil & GasIOG has announced a successful EUR 100m 5 year senior secured bond issuance this morning which takes the company a long way down the route to finalising the funding for their substantial gas project in the SNS. Callable after three years, which is tactically sensible it being 6-12 months after first gas, this fulfills the major condition for the completion of the farm-out process and should lead to its completion and phase 1 FID imminently.Speaking to the company this morning they are clearly delighted after what has been 'a monumental year' and there is now proper sunlight at the end of the tunnel. They are strategically aligned with a blue-chip partner, have drilling underway and can see the project going to phases 1 and 2 without further need for further funding.Whilst gas prices this year have been rather on the low side the longer term strip is still very positive and have clearly not worried the investors in the bond. My other worry about the high equity stake held by the London Group administrator also looks to be overdone as with an orderly market arrangement in place and conversion tightly controlled it should be a stable relationship.

[shareideas1] 09/9/2019 11:19

To be clear by "they" in the previous post I am referring to FinnCap

[shareideas1] 09/9/2019 11:19

Guess the reaction suggests that the market never really doubted that IOG would get the bond away (despite some comparisons on here to SXX last week)... Good thing from here is that we presumably have a string of positive news RNS's to come... Farm-OutFIDFDP... Even before we find out the result from Harvey well which could be a real basis changer (IOG share of the well unrisked they see at worth 14p per share)!

[keisersoze] 09/9/2019 11:13

I'm surprised this hasn't had a better response. It's a big hurdle to have cleared. Well done to the Management.

[costax1654x] 09/9/2019 11:00

Is on I3e board

[shareideas1] 09/9/2019 09:25

Must still be some LOG supply to clear with stock offered at 19.2p in the darks

[ua36] 09/9/2019 07:15

Where's Fardels Bear? He called this one spot on.

[shareideas1] 09/9/2019 07:04

Bond fully covered - onwards now to completion of farmout and FID !!

[shareideas1] 08/9/2019 11:36

hTTps://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/902038/independent-oil--gas-outlines-company-ambitions-902038.html

[shareideas1] 05/9/2019 13:32

I would guess that as the bond roadshow progresses and the bond gets covered the market will get wind of progress and that will start to be reflected in the equity ahead of the order book closing on 18th September (with final settlement of bond on 20th - T+2)... Getting the bond away is the final risk to the completion of the farmout and hence the FID and ultimately the delivery of first gas in mid-2021 (= cash)

[shareideas1] 04/9/2019 16:04

From memory SXX was US500m (much larger) and 2027 (longer maturity) without either the blue chip partner IOG has (BH) or the low risk/high return upside from further licensing opportunities (actively being pursued) ... all in this should in relative terms de risk the IOG bond issue although base case would be that it priced at the high end of the range - just because instos tend to try their luck really and brexit fears may keep some buyers on the sidelines...

[marvelman] 04/9/2019 15:59

...appreciate your thoughts shareideas.

[shareideas1] 04/9/2019 15:54

Nothing is certain in life bar death and taxes, but this is very very different to Sirius and had the added advantage of having a Berkshire Hathaway company as the other 50% on the project... the offer size is E100-130m and is being priced at 8.5-9.5% to reflect any remaining uncertainty and offers immediate upside to bond holders should Harvey come in successfully... ABG SC are leading the offer...

[marvelman] 04/9/2019 15:47

With a binding farm out agreement and tie up with CER this now looks like a very good investment case. However, I do have a concern regarding the certainty of the bond application given the experience SXX has gone through with their failed attempt in obtaining similar funding arrangements. I don't hold any longer but would do so if I could be confident the bond application was more of a formality than I believe it is.

[shareideas1] 04/9/2019 15:00

20th September bond settlement date - so presumably farm-out completion and FID on or around that date

[shareideas1] 04/9/2019 12:41

I hear that the Bond issue has been launched and is due to settle later this month. Once that is done we will get completion of farmout and then FID... feels like we may have too wait another couple of weeks for news but that it will then be a busy end of September with all the above news flow and the subsequent Harvey well result...

[shareideas1] 30/8/2019 10:49

Bit of volume going through again today ... should get update on bond issuance and subsequent FID in "early September" - odds on an RNS next week to get farmout wrapped up ahead of Harvey result at month end (we are almost a month into a "2 months drill in success case")

[hsfinch] 28/8/2019 13:53

I've been looking at a number of U.K. oilies recently. Not sure what to make of this. On the face of it, they've done well to get finance to develop a load of UK North Sea dogs which outfits like Tullow walked away from years ago. But another way to look at it is they borrowed to spend and lose more money. Whichever it is, the deal hasn't moved the share price much.

[shareideas1] 22/8/2019 19:43

12.4m/20m held prior to conversion now sold. Leaves 8m and then the new shares post conversion in September which are subject to orderly market on sale

[fillipe] 22/8/2019 19:41

Late RNS's of today - maybe that gets one lot of overhang well out of the way.

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[gary38] 13/8/2019 08:09

Looking good

[shareideas1] 12/8/2019 07:30

They exercised up to the maximum allowed per the rns last week. Holdings subject to orderly market conditions for 12 months from completion (which is from when Farm out should complete in September).

[bountyhunter] 12/8/2019 07:22

LOG to hold 29.99% of post completion share capital in September 2019, 1/100th of a percent more and I assume they would have had to put in an offer for the whole company?!