Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[careful] 05/2/2021 09:46

Thanks , good info.

You would think that they would have to comply to the same accountancy rules.

[tomleafs] 05/2/2021 09:39

Careful, in 2019 IMB reported gross revenue of £31.6bn which at first glance appears to be higher than the £25.9bn of revenue reported by BATS. However, IMB has yet to subtract 'duty and similar items' from this figure and it does so as a line item on the income statement. BATS on the other hand reports 2019 revenue of £25.9bn with a note to say this is already net of 'duty, excise and other taxes'. If you subtract 'duty and similar items' from IMBs revenue figure you get £16.2bn which is the value I think you should compare to the BATS figure. That's how I understand it anyway, happy to be corrected. Tom

[topazfrenzy] 05/2/2021 09:19

At these levels I'd rather have £25,000 invested here than sitting in a bank account that's for sure, a no brainer really

[careful] 05/2/2021 09:09

I am invested here.

Never understood why IMB turnover is greater than BATS, yet it makes a much smaller pre tax profit.BATS make 30%+ of turnover pre tax, IMB below 10%.

It is valued much lower that BATS and has an inferior cash flow as we would expect.

This company must have huge potential, maybe not back to the £40 of 3-4 years ago but plenty of upside if the new guy delivers.

[hydrogen economy] 05/2/2021 06:04

Wunderbar, I have similar bad experience. The term defensive share doesn't mean it will never go down, it is a comment on the resilience of sales to cyclical downturns. Most of the time since 2017 has been a growth stock market and defensive shares have generally done poorly. IMB have added poor board decisions, ineffective strategy, especially around NGP so have done particularly poorly.

I can't say that the strategy refresh gave me much cause for hope, there was not much change apart from a slow down on NGP and exit from some weaker markets. The positive was commitment to progressive dividend.

On a DCF basis for a flat dividend, purely on that income stream, I estimate the share is worth at least 2100p, at 3% dividend growth it should be worth over 2500p. The market is saying otherwise, presumably because in long term, the BOD cannot sustain or grow dividend if they don't deliver sustainable profits growth. There is presumably significant doubt about that. I have my own doubts but will give a new CEO a little time to prove his plan is correct.

[creditcrunchies] 05/2/2021 00:02

I started with this stock at £25.00 but I've managed to keep the capital gains at 6% even though it is down £25 to £12 and basically bagging the dividend of around 10% per year. It's quite a risky strategy because in my case I end up with around £90K of IMB stock in my SIPP. I basically keep the cheapest stock purchase then when it rallies I take profits on say 75% of the holding, so I'm left with 25% running at the cheapest price. When it goes down again I start accumulating all over again, always checking the divi dates so I have the biggest load of stock on as it goes into ex-div. I bag up to £8K of dividends in a year on this stock.

On Stockopedia it's got a useful feature on your portfolio window it shows an accumulated unrealised gains value so I can manage my capital gains on each stock. So if I go on my broker view of my portfolio it'll show this typically a loss most of the time lol. On Stockopedia it shows you the accumulated profit/loss of all trades for that particular stock, really useful feature especially for divi investing because at the end of the day this is a divi stock it ain't going anywhere fast soon.

[wunderbar] 04/2/2021 18:25

IMB, a defensive stock!? That’s what I thought when I first bought in back-end 2017 @ c.£30. Now I know different. Here’s a summary of IMB’s share price performance for past five years: 2016 (-1%), 2017 (-11%), 2018 (-25%), 2019 (-21%), 2020 (-18%). During this time the market cap has halved! Does that sound like a defensive stock? I’ve lost count the number of times over the years I’ve read posters harping on about the high dividend yield, all the while ignoring the fact IMB has been destroying shareholders capital in recent years. Others commented it shouldn’t fall below £25, it did. Surely won’t fall below £20, it did. No way will it drop below £15, it did.

Sadly, under previous management, IMB was repeatedly punished for constantly missing a multitude of growth targets, as well as continually reeling off a long line of one off costs, rising NGP development costs etc. Saying that though, of equal importance to note is during this time the tobacco sector has faced a wrath of negativity and fallen massively out of favour on ethical grounds. During these times of ultra low/non existent interest rates I wonder how long it’ll be before we start seeing major funds return to the likes of IMB and BATS for their generous dividends. At the end of the day money talks and the purpose of these funds is to make money.

I do think IMB is significantly undervalued at £14.30 (I’m contemplating buying more at this level). In the past it has comfortably traded on a p/e ratio of 10 plus, now it’s barely 6. As for the new CEO’s grand master plan revealed last week, well it seems to have gone down like a lead balloon, noting the share price has subsequently fallen 12%, the market’s reaction has almost been akin to a profit warning!

My average price is a woeful £25, I can only hope come the end of Stefan Bomhard’s five year plan the share price has made a full recovery to this level. Whilst the dividends are welcome, they are scant consolation for the significant capital erosion to date.

[irenekent] 04/2/2021 18:22

dmore2 absolutely dead right; happens every quarter. With DRIPS they buy the new shares in the market and push the price up artificially. An complete con.

[dmore2] 04/2/2021 17:02

dont worry will be back to £16.5 when dividend is due to be reinvested

[topazfrenzy] 04/2/2021 16:39

Had to load up on another 100 shares

this is my cash generator in my portfolio


GLA

[creditcrunchies] 04/2/2021 15:36

I started nibbling again here 1420s, this goes ex div 18th Feb

[careful] 04/2/2021 15:20

imb is just like an annuity, only better.
who cares about the share price as long as they keep sending us a fat divi.
politically incorrect, a sin share, bring it on.

[gary1966] 04/2/2021 15:16

Factor in the divi increase for next year and it probably already is.

[daneswooddynamo] 04/2/2021 15:04

Knocking on the door of a double digit yield again!

[lendmeafiver] 03/2/2021 22:41

Finally watched the Capital Markets Event this evening, the price fall must be because the buybacks are on hold for a couple of years, fine with me.

Clearly a significant interest saving coming through the P&L over the next couple of years also. Heated Tobacco approach also makes sense.

[spud] 03/2/2021 18:09

Imperial Brands Remuneration Report Passes Vote But Only 60% In Favour. spud

[irenekent] 03/2/2021 09:20

This is still in the bumping along the bottom stage where change can be relatively low. However just as in the seasons, by the time we get to March the days are rapidly getting longer. Hopefully the IMB share price will have started to motor upwards too. As others have said, now is the time to re-invest dividends. The pattern of tobacco stocks is far more predictable as far as earnings are concerned; its just the value attributed to those stocks that is so variable. A lot has to do with sentiment, fashion and political agendas - all of which are outside of market control. For the moment we should enjoy the chance to buy cheap and look forward to the time when we can sell dear.

[spud] 03/2/2021 09:00

There's no longer a correlation between the DOW and FT100. The former's strength is down to the FAANG stocks whilst here it's driven by traditional value companies.spud

[topazfrenzy] 03/2/2021 08:53

Usually these consumer defensives do well in turmoil so I would not worry too much, hold them for the dividend

Funds have to be invested, they are not allowed to sit on a ton of cash

[catswhiskas] 02/2/2021 19:48

Hate to think whats going to happen to this when the DOW corrects off its near all time high .I think it might test £12.60 again forming a double bottom if the DOW crashes to 25000 a 20% correction which has to be very soon .

[topazfrenzy] 02/2/2021 18:31

I actually do not think it is that the market is irrational here

It is BECAUSE the market is just being manipulated by the usual crooks

Only the mad would sell this at these levels

So all you can do as a PI is to keep buying and wait for the big reversal (which will come), while of course banking the delicious dividend, now standing at 11%

GLA

[gary1966] 02/2/2021 18:29

Gap filled from the 3&4th December. Missed that there was a gap as I would have targeted my recent top ups at that level.

[lendmeafiver] 02/2/2021 16:09

Couldn’t resist it at 14.5

[minerve 2] 02/2/2021 16:09

I'm hoping that PE stay well clear, or any buyer for that matter. PE would ultimately want to sell it on and I wouldn't want to be attempting to push that onto institutions with ESG policies in 4 to 5 years time. As for other tobacco companies why expand for expand sake? With interest rate cycles walking along a tight rope of 'ready to turn' - not that they will - why take on additional capital/risk? Best to focus on improving ROCE IMO.

Hopefully we can ride this for the long term and all benefit from it. Sod the short-termists.

[spud] 02/2/2021 16:07

The Market is irrational. We know its great value esp when factoring the divi in.

Sit back, relax and wear a smug smile which says: "I'm right and you lot are wrong".

I've made strong money abiding to that mantra.

spud