Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[cockerspaniel] 11/1/2018 12:02

The company has said that it will release the results by the end of Q1.

We don't know much more than that - but it is worth noting that there is usually a gap of a few weeks between the trial ending and the trial results being reported.

What happens is that once the trial has finished, the database is locked down to prevent any changes.

Then the data is analysed. One purpose of this is to report safety issues (side effects, dropouts etc) and adherence to the protocol while the data is blind and thus prevent any bias.

Finally, the trial is unblinded.The results will be calculated at a press of a button and reports will be generated automatically.

We should expect an announcement fairly soon after that - not immediately, but within a week or so

[glennrcharles] 11/1/2018 11:43

Good thoughts. Also any deal before results would limit downside imho.

[pulledpork] 11/1/2018 11:32

Why are so many of you worrying so much about other people? Everyone's situation is completely different so without knowing their circumstances any advice or warning is either just patronising or stupid. We have a situation here where within the next 2 months we'll have the share price somewhere between 5-100£ (that should cover the whole spectrum of numbers I've seen flying around here) if the results are good. If not the share price will drop to whatever level. Conservatively maybe 50p. What is the likelihood of a positive outcome? I don't think anybody would say it's below 50%, some will say it's close to 90% or more based on the phase 2 results. Again, very very conservatively assume 50%. We then have a coin that we flip, heads gives us anything between 3 and 60 times your money and tails gives you a third of you money back. If we had 100 of these companies every single investor would probably put all their money evenly distributed into these companies and would earn a very nice return. However we only have one throw here which makes is a bit more difficult. Nevertheless it's skewed in our favour and if people want to take this chance it's more than understandable. And if they are young (like someone said yesterday) and wan to put a large proportion of their funds here it's also understandable because it's a chance to get a massive head start for their portfolio but if the results are not good the still have enough time to make up for that. It's a gamble and yes, it doesn't fit into all the get rich slowly advice which is right in general but I certainly haven't come across situations like this very often. Combine this with a possible run-up to the results of maybe above 200 and set a guaranteed stop loss you limit your damage to maybe 30% or even lock in a profit if people bought cheaper.

[divinessence] 11/1/2018 11:21

Well someone is on a full time job to thumb down most of the posts here. No doubt this will be thumbed down too. Clearly someone has p'd off this person though now having proved his/her point should take a break .

[ny boy] 11/1/2018 11:03

Anyone who gives me a thumbs down will have a grisley end 😁

[ny boy] 11/1/2018 10:59

Low volume drift back is good news maybe tempted to add another chunk later

[greatfull dead] 11/1/2018 10:51

kensingtoncourt,

Filtered.

GlA,
GD

[hamhamham1] 11/1/2018 10:48

Cheers kensington.
I am a fan of the science, story and the shares.
I have put only enough here to get a nice return if all goes good.
I worry that some get carried away and have overloaded on this one single share, that's all.
I can shrug my shoulders and go for a beer if results are not ideal.
I just don't like to think of people sinking into a deep depression if results are not ideal.
I think that there is too much assumption that putting £10-20,000 on here will make yourself a millionaire. (Obviously that amount is ok if your puddle of money is proportionately large).
This is not deramping.
Looks at my posts, most are probably overtly positive :)

[herschel k] 11/1/2018 10:38

no worries - you must be very proud then. :)

[kensingtoncourt] 11/1/2018 10:37

I was referring to hamham and njb. both nobs and the same person.

[money maker1] 11/1/2018 10:35

herschel - one thing for sure they may know next week is the total drop out number.

[herschel k] 11/1/2018 10:34

Just noticed mm - misread his post - think I'm just used to seeing posts where people are suggesting results very soon after the trial officially ends.

I think we will get a notification RNS that all results are back and the process from that point until the results are published - might get that next week, but I'd say by end of Jan at latest.

Then a few weeks again for headline results - I don't agree with njb, but you never know.

Most important is what the results are, rather than how long they take. :)

kensington - if that's aimed at me, you must be very proud of yourself.

H

[njb67] 11/1/2018 10:32

No. All unblinded at the same time.

[kensingtoncourt] 11/1/2018 10:30

What about the centres that completed some time ago and from which data has already been collected and input. Do they all have to be unblinded at the same time once trial ends or can those that completed early and for which dat ahas been collected and input be unblinded after next week. We know you do not know really but you feel you have to say something.

[njb67] 11/1/2018 10:27

Typically takes one to two weeks to lock database after final patient data is collected. How long depends on how many data queries and how long the centres take to respond.

Analyses and production of report then takes a couple of months. I would not expect IMM to know the results this month or for them to be public until March.

[hamhamham1] 11/1/2018 10:16

And there we have the three rampateers :)

[money maker1] 11/1/2018 10:07

hottingup did not mention releasing results into the public domain next week. He was referring to IMM's right to begin unblinding data once the overall trial ends next week and is talking about data already collected and tabulated from those centres where all the patients have already completed dosing and evaluations (probably the US and EU) - and IMM looking at it themselves. This data alone may give an indication of how the Phase 3 went. Obviously nothing will be be released into the public domain until headline results from all centres is available.

[compnews1] 11/1/2018 10:03

If my memory serve me right, in the recent interview the CEO/chairmain said that they plan to publish P3 result by end of Q1 2018. Even if the result finish earlier than planned, they would want to check before announcement.

[herschel k] 11/1/2018 09:55

hotting,

I think that's unrealistic.

I'd be amazed and pleased if we have results that fast in the public domain.

I'm expecting headline results sometime in February - probably mid to end Feb.

H

[hottingup] 11/1/2018 09:38

The Phase 3 trial ends next Wednesday by my calculation so IMM may have some results by Thursday (most of the data has already been collected) and know if they have a £10+ billion company in the making.

[top tips] 11/1/2018 09:27

IMM will get big $bucks if the Phase 3 results are ok.

Cephalon originally offered IMM $545m for an outlicensing deal on Lupuzor just on Phase 2a data.

Eli Lilly offered $400M+ in 2017 to bag a Phase 1 autoimmune drug from Nektar.

GSK bought out HGSi in 2012 for $3.6 billion, to get their 50% stake in lupus drug Benlysta, giving a 100% valuation for Benlysta of just over $7 billion.

IMM's Phase 3 Lupuzor patients have all completed dosing and the good side effects profile is still holding up well. IMM's Lupuzor only needs a better side effects profile than Benlysta and similar efficacy to succede. If Lupuzor beats Benlysta on safety and efficacy then it willbe worth a fortune, particularly as it could treat 12+ indications and so could be several blockbusters in one.

[hamhamham1] 11/1/2018 08:44

Ahhh - my dyslexia - my bad - that's funny.