Idox Share Discussion Threads

[aishah] 09/5/2018 10:09

SCSW covers Idox in the latest issue. Concludes with:
"With strong market positioning it looks like a sitting duck to a predator. Average down"

[phillis] 03/5/2018 10:12

plenty of stock available
purchases well inside the bid-offer spread

[nobilis] 20/4/2018 15:00

Yes constellation are agressive bidders
with todays high volume takeout must be close
I would like 60p

[trcml] 20/4/2018 12:11

Ignore, that wrong board!

[trcml] 20/4/2018 12:09

I wouldn't expect to hear any bid rumours. But I note Constellation have gradually increased their holding during the past few days (RNS).

It wouldn't surprise me that something's up. HMSO's bid has put INTU into the spotlight.

[tree1234] 20/4/2018 10:02

Where did you hear that opodio?

[opodio] 20/4/2018 09:44

Bid rumour from constellation software in us

[sharki9] 20/4/2018 09:40

Nice volume, biggest I have seen so far on idox

[clocktower] 19/4/2018 11:10

The dog needs rest, so once it has settled down a little lower that this level maybe to around 20p when we see the H1 figures, I think it could be back up ready for a run towards 40p within a quarter or two after that.

While it fell on its face by trying to be to clever by far, the picture going forwards looks a little more settled.

[phillis] 19/4/2018 09:52

What a balls up

[smithie6] 05/4/2018 12:24

uf

price under 30p
I hadnt expected that
...luckily I had got bored waiting and hopped on to another bus a few p higher...

[phillis] 28/3/2018 11:20

looking forward to the AGM statement

[phillis] 08/3/2018 16:13

looks like some bed and breakfasting taking place here

[110543407] 06/3/2018 13:59

For the third consecutive time Idox 6PM has failed to file their financials within the required time frame. Once again, their bonds listed on the Malta Stock Exchange which were suspended since May 2017 and only very recently re-listed, are suspended once again. How can one trust a company with such poor management - pre and post acquisition???

[leading] 02/3/2018 12:02

I have held this for some time, but it has always seemed to be a jam tomorrow stock, with a disconnect between the management's warm words and the numbers. I have sold out today as the risks seem to outweigh the opportunities.

Areas of concern:
The engineering business (which was bought at the top of the cycle), has proven to be a very mixed experience. It is hardly mentioned in the results, apart from the fact that it's turnover shrank by 8%. It is now clearly non-core and will, I suppose, be disposed of at some point. What will be the level of write offs? Associated intangibles appear to be carried at £12m in the balance sheet.

Why did they go ahead with the 6PM acquisition after due diligence threw up serious problems, that does not make sense?

The audit report is heavily qualified. This is not done lightly. As Phyllis says above, read it. I have further concerns here though. The auditors appear to have carried out the due diligence on 6PM. I thought that auditors were barred from such work because of potential conflicts, but either the rules have changed or I am mistaken. Anyway, given the problems with 6PM, the auditors do have a conflict of interest. Has this affected their approach to the valuation of 6PM intangibles? I suspect there may be further write offs to come here.

Cash conversion was 82% compared to 63% according to management. That's a long way away from 100% and casts doubt on the revenue figures. Accrued income has increased from £18.8m to 23m, £3m of which is organic. Well, lets hope the customers do eventually pay. £8.7m (2016 £6.1m) of this is not even due for payment until FY19. So this is a continuing and increasing issue, despite soothing words to the contrary.

The company made a post tax profit of £2.6m. Its intangible assets are a staggering £122.7m or £145,000 per employee. Consider the condition of the balance sheet in the event of a material write down here.

During the year, management made share option gains of £3.2m. Nice one.

I think I am being asked to take too much on trust here and whilst the disclosure in the annual results is an improvement on previous efforts and I wish the company well, I am not yet convinced by the managements track record and the risks are too great for me here.

[phillis] 02/3/2018 10:34

sphere
what do you estimate 2018 eps?

[sphere25] 02/3/2018 07:38

Interesting recovery one this?

Had some large late trades reported here so it is attracting some attention. The reason for the fall was the delayed contracts and revenue recognition, which they now appear to have put behind them, will the market start looking forward:

"Following the disappointment at the year-end regarding delayed contracts and revenue recognition, I am pleased that these matters have now been clarified and that we can look forward with confidence to the new financial year. Idox has an exceptionally strong market position in the public sector, a sound balance sheet, and multiple opportunities for growth. I am therefore confident of the Group's future prospects."

Looks like a fair bit of recovery potential here if the market does start looking forward.

Watching for a break of 40 to see some real conviction behind the breakout yesterday.

[phillis] 01/3/2018 10:40

Serious (would be) investors should read the Auditors Report

[trcml] 01/3/2018 10:23

Summary:
Overpaid for 6PM and got poor accounting records into the 'bargain'.
6PM accounts integration tidied up but at a cost.

Going forward: stop chasing revenue, instead aim for higher margin contracts. Presupposing cash-strapped customers won't mind paying more

PE approx 15 suggests share price at around 30p about right. Unless you think Idox has gone ex-growth in which case good business: shame it's not good investment.

Market-maker sentiment: up share price to give the impression of pay more in the hope of return to PE 4 and 50p share price A few contract wins might push it to 60p. Suddenly, all what's happened will become a distant memory.

If I'm right then I should buy now for my target resale 40p. But I won't.

[phillis] 01/3/2018 09:31

I have never come across anything like this before

" I am particularly grateful to Jane Mackie, our CFO, and her team who in difficult circumstances upheld the Company's standards of honesty and integrity."

Presumably this was the FD verssus newly acquired management (mainly 6PM?) but one wonders what role the CEO played or perhaps better to say didnt play in this?

Anyway looks like things are back on an even keel but the implied P/E is way to high

[clocktower] 01/3/2018 08:31

With the market heading down, I expect this will soon follow, as the fallout from 6PM being a judgement call on the management quality.

[runthejoules] 01/3/2018 08:17

Unexpectedly nice start. Here's looking forward to another election, for a few reasons!

[roger-lawson] 01/3/2018 08:16

These results are very much as I forecast several weeks ago. So in other words, there are no new surprises. Pretty poor outcome of course because of the duff 6PM acquisition.

Way too many adjustments, so it's best to ignore the EBITDA and look at the cash flows instead and future prospects. Looks like there is no risk to banking covenants and debt likely to fall going forward.

[jeanesy] 01/3/2018 08:02

Shares look forward not back. Up at the open as i thought !