have to say IBST stood up fairly well in the weeks market carnage |
Market turmoil could provide a good opportunity here.
Back to recent year lows? |
 This is from the Prelims of Forterra which came out a day after IBST.
I thought a good macro overview.
Quote
Despite current and announced capacity investments, the UK brick industry still lacks the capacity required to meet demand. Current domestic production capacity of c2.1bn clay bricks per annum, remains lower than the pre-financial crisis figure of 2.6bn, supporting the increase in brick imports seen in the year with the number of imported bricks increasing by 35% relative to 2021.
We know that our customers would rather buy British wherever possible because we can ensure provenance and quality supplied directly from stock, for prompt delivery with lower transportation costs. These market dynamics leave us ideally placed to substitute imports with production from our new brick factory at Desford. Whilst it is likely that deteriorating economic conditions will reduce demand for our products in the near term, the ability to displace imported bricks will insulate ourselves and other UK brick manufacturers from some of the fall in demand as our customers switch from imports to domestically manufactured products which are expected to become more freely available. |
Good to have a 5.2pc yield and statutory pe of 8x |
I need to listen to the webcast and I hope they were asked what will be the impact of the sizeable declines in housebuilding we have seen forecast by the big housebuilders in recent weeks.
I note they say that 2023 full year expectations have not changed but not told when these expectations were formulated.
Very impressive ROCE figures.
I currently plan to stay with what I have. |
gsw
Conditions to remain subdued. Its a surprise if that's a surprise. Though the markets will no doubt be happy to be unhappy !! |
'Conditions to remain subdued' in the early part of 2023 is a bit worrying.Good to see an increase in dividend which gives some confidence going forward.
Let's see how the market takes it. |
Even good results seem to be greeted with a drop this year. Not holding my breath. |
Economy as a whole is going through a soft patch; let's hope Rishi's corporation tax bomb will not extend that to a long drawn-out underperformance of the UK. Still, houses are needed, this is not going to be the worst affected sector. |
Would imagine that share price reacts to predictions for expected performance for year ahead rather than last year reported. At the mo difficult to see a lot of excitement generated |
All shares to do with building tend to fall on day of results atm
Return to 150? |
Neither am I. Doesnt it all depend on when you compare it to? We have had higher highs and higher lows. |
Lower highs and lower lows - Not a chartist but looks as though a red flag.
kalai1 - Agreed. |
Finals Wed. |
It's a long hold for me still, but it looks a long way back up to £3 again. But simplistically , there is going to be a long term demand for the products and no particular reason why other competitors have an advantage, so will keep ticking along unless someone makes a bad management decision .Or conversely a good one . |
Ibstock plc issued a trading update for the year ended 31 December 2022 this morning. The Group enjoyed resilient performance in final quarter of the year driven by a continued focus on price and margin management and good operational execution. Full year revenues are expected to increase by 25% to approximately £510 million, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be modestly ahead of previous expectations. Looking forward, higher interest rates, inflation and heightened market uncertainty are expected to impact the demand picture in 2023, but management remain confident in their ability to deliver against ambitious medium-term financial targets. Valuation is a little rich for the sector, the share price also lacks near term momentum. There is no particular rush to buy here, but IBST is well worth monitoring for the medium run...
...from WealthOracle |
As an example, I believe the market is pretty much ignoring the huge acquisition that Norcros made last year, so not factoring that in means the balance sheet may look worse and earnings projections look less exciting. |
I gave up using anything other than reported and RNS-ed results long ago, GH. Everything else is subject to distortions and downright incompetence. Also you get to see the reasons for the earnings, adjustments (for good or ill), debt, pension issues, balance sheet adjustments, distortions from recent disposals or acquisitions, etc. (apart from the corporate activity a lot of it doesn't change much from year to year so it is only a big job in the first year). It takes more time, but it is the only way to get accuarate reported information (which mostly is either correct or massaged in a pretty predictable way). |
I looked under the financials within ADVFN where they have Eps of 7.8 and pe of 21I didn't cross check it reported numbers Stupid me, for some reason I thought it might be vaguely accurate. So thanks for pointing that out |
An historic PE of 21??? How do you arrive at that?
Adjusted EPS for the first HALF of this year was 11.3p. Adjusted EPS for the still COVID-impacted 2021 was 13.9p, and 2019 (the closest pre-COVID comparable since when we have had 15% inflation) was 18.3p. The likely forward PE is under 10 even without the growth I expect from long term housing shortage and new production capacity and efficiencies. |
It has historic p/e of 21 so probably reasonably full value as it is I would guess |
Very happy on the trading update to have added already in the 150s here, but also not motivated to go overweight right now as fully invested here; though I would add on any price weakening.
Not sure why the market is valuing Ibstock under £2 at the moment. With the buybacks, a decent dividend, the new facilities (£35m worth this year), a solid balance sheet and reasonable outlook both short and long term, what exactly is the market discounting?? |
407k buy after close of trading yesterday posted this morning . Personally, I think we have another good year ahead of us with Ibstock. |
I note reference to significant cost inflation but I was interested to note nothing specific on energy costs. I guess they feel they have nothing to add over Q3 TU.
This TU has made me more comfortable with my current holding but not sure if it is motivating me to buy more. |
Excellent trading update today |
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