I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[justfencing] 15/7/2021 06:43

You just said you're in again - why slate a business your own - mental behavior

[mikro1] 15/7/2021 00:19

I agree with you Jungmana. I made money in Rockrose but don't see the same potential in Kistos. I3E seems a better bet in my view..

[hoper1] 14/7/2021 17:45

Nice one. Always good to correct erroneous statements!

[spangle93] 14/7/2021 17:28

Hoper1 - you are correct in the most recent presentation, though they have also said "between 20-30%" previously.

The point was to counter Fandangle erroneous comparison with another company.

[hoper1] 14/7/2021 17:24

I think they said 'up to' 30 per cent. Not quite the same!

[goodday1] 14/7/2021 16:12

The spread getting tighter!

[jungmana] 14/7/2021 14:04

I was in Kistos from about 130p until the acquisition deal and suspension. Was not happy with the deal as was expensive in my view therefore immediately sold out about 180p when suspension was lifted . All the money went in here.Cash is right about KIST being at a premium due to trust in AA. The management here are redeeming themselves with the deals done in the last one year and imo soon will regain trust of the market. In the meantime I will buy more at this level if I can as I believe should at least double from this level by end of this year.

[fandagle] 14/7/2021 13:17

My average was around 38p at the time of the Liberator abomination, I managed to average down to around 11p, so that’s where I am now, bought loads at 5p etc, I will wait for the Repsol- serenity - Tain tie in and see where I am then, it’s not beyond these two to dilute again at any time, so I may trade after Serenity.

[cashandcard] 14/7/2021 13:15

Fandangle,


That's a bit harsh. I'm in both - Kist and Andrew certainly have a stronger cohort of shareholders, ii's and retail alike - hence the KIST premium. People are paying those sums because they have calculated their money is safe with Andrew Austin, who is CEO and owns 17% of KIST stock. Andrew Austins performance at RRE means he gets free pass on KIST and its acceptance just 'is' amongst investors.

Why are we surprised; the market rewards good performers and punishes failures.......twas ever thus!

Because of i3e's previous failures at Liberator and the doomed farmout process a few years ago, they must 'become' accepted first. Of course the past here hangs over it like a dark cloud, but that will clear at some point if they continue to make progress. Once they get going with the dividend policy (0.0016 is the first of 3 this FY) then a rerate is in order. The Managers could learn a thing or two from AA and put some real skin in the game here.


Cash

[spangle93] 14/7/2021 13:13

Just to be crystal clear.

Contrary to the view expressed above, the company's stated intent is to pay 30% of FCF as bi-annual dividends, starting in the next couple of months. The yield is not yet clarified, because we haven't yet seen accounts with cash flow specified, but was originally estimated to be of the order of 6%.

The fixed, one-off 0.16p/sh distribution that goes ex-div this week is declared as a special dividend that precedes the bi-annual payments.

[arab3] 14/7/2021 13:04

so why did you buy in here fandagle ?????

[fandagle] 14/7/2021 12:58

Yellowdog, I paid my mortgage off with the money I made, around £180k, so do believe im ok at trading, the intention is for KISTOS to pay a dividend, unlike I3E it will be 5%-10%, not the titbits in play here, what is it .0016, hardly worth the trot to te Country Club old boy.....KISTOS I can trust, these two villains i cannot....

[edgein] 14/7/2021 12:19

Cash,

From what I saw it looks like Serenity came in and Liberator didn't, but both were priced out of the company. Even still the share price doesn't reflect the discovery made there and the market doesn't believe. Probably the pace at which this one is growing has kept it under the radar too, but for how long? Then it won't suit everyone either as its a producer and look at all those that love to chase hype and a good story rather than assets.

Market is still full of those get rich quick types. Interesting too another of my holdings (much smaller holding than here) used to have a huge cap when it was drilling Namibia, not its planning an appraisal well and very few are interested even tough its cap is now partly covered by a large cash raise. Its a funny old market still. But value always breaks through in the end, it reminds me a bit of Ithaca which also lagged for a while too.

This one did almost launch recently too and who knows if the acquisition hadn't come along it may have continued to fair value with the momentum traders. So it shows signs that when the current overhang clears we could get the same again. not that it matters that much really for those that are here for the longer term/Serenity development. In fact if its still down here when I have some more free cash I'll be adding. Those that bought higher and are still in should see most or all of their money back over time imo. NTM NOI of $75-80m is a very good way to start.

Regards,
Ed.

[tonynorstrom1] 14/7/2021 12:14

yellowdog,

I agree that i3e is undervalued and is going to become even more undervalued as they add in incremental production especially oil.

However, if you are comparing companies on metrics related to barrels of oil - you have to take into account whether the production is Gas Rich or Oil Rich. I.e. a company producing 10,000 bopd is going to have maybe 3x the revenue as one producing 10,000 boepd Gas.

[cashandcard] 14/7/2021 10:49

Ed,


I was invested here at the time - let me assure you, they were not perceived failures, they were full on disasters when NC was at the helm. The strategy was wrong and parties into the LB dataroom were walking out and not returning.

The Toscana and Gain deals have given I3E a new lease of life, and I hope all onboard now can do well, whether thats for capital gain, the divi or both. Your buys were timed to perfection btw.



Cash

[1choip] 14/7/2021 10:34

Modeapp is nice and chance to win £500 BTC

[edgein] 14/7/2021 10:33

Yellow,

Moreover too not all boe's are equal. KIST is almost purely a gas play, its largely dry gas assets, therefore no real exposure to the oil price. Whereas I3E is almost half liquids production (oil and NGLs) after the recent acquisition so some exposure to the strong oil prices too. Serenity looks like its also going to tip the scales more in favour of oil production too one of the main reasons I bought in here.

Cash,

If it weren't for those past perceived failures and pricing Serenity out of the price here I wouldn't be in these. Primary reason I got in was they were oversold and didn't recover after the Toscana and Gain deals, that made them a no brainer. The latest acquisition has just pushed it into mid cap territory without the usual associated debt levels. Also with the comparison to SAVE earlier which was capped at over £200m of riskier Nigerian gas, they also have circa $200m debt from memory. So again points to a justifiable cap here over £300m. I3E is playing a game of catch up in terms of share price, but its exceeding in terms of assets.

Regards,
Ed.

[yellowdog] 14/7/2021 10:02

Fandagle - I'm guessing you're a novice investor.

KIST isn't paying a dividend. It hasn't made a profit yet. It only listed in Nov 2020 and only completed its acquisition in April this year. It has only traded for a couple of months. It has some £150m plus of debt to pay off.

Whereas i3E is paying a dividend.

i3E dilution wasn't to pay off debt but to purchase another 8,400 boepd which will double its production and, unlike KIST ( whose acquisition was very expensive ) it was at a very low cost per boe.

[cashandcard] 14/7/2021 09:54

Ed, pretax,I hear you. The Divi marks a step change in strategy and hopefully a better future. The previous boss, his near total failure that led this from over £1 to just pennies in the pandemic Vis why some are perhaps still reluctant. I'll be frank, I'm here for the Divi, it would take some epic failure for that to go wrong. You see, it's investor and market perception of I3E over last 3years. Until investors see those dividends in their accounts, they will not be able to fully shake off the past as that is all they have to go by.Let's hope there are no hiccups now and they follow through on plan like Andrew Austin does on his.Cash

[goodday1] 14/7/2021 09:49

Up it goes.Just like that.LolFixed ???

[1choip] 14/7/2021 09:34

300m valuation is about right?

[goodday1] 14/7/2021 09:30

Just like that, 11.50 will go after few buys & it will tick up.Oh those MM.Lol

[goodday1] 14/7/2021 09:12

250K buy from 08:10 just got printed.Onward & soon enough upwards

[pretax2] 14/7/2021 09:00

If i3e didn’t care about SH value they wouldn’t be pursuing a divi policy. Current the divi is only small, but by adding production through buy or drill along with probable share buybacks, this could be a valuable pension pot winner at this price.
Hold on tight.

[edgein] 14/7/2021 08:53

Cash,

I would call the last 5 or 6 acquisitions doing exactly that. The latest one is superb, yeah the inexperienced don't like dilution, but others will see the value of adding all those recent assets at just £40m, its not just the 8400boepd and the 79mmboe its the other cost savings and large development acreage it brings with it. Since I've come in here management haven't put a foot wrong. £40m for $193m+ upside, I'd take more of the same any day.

Regards,
Ed.